Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 13
Welcome! In this series, I try to be short, sharp, and to the point offering some conclusions based on trends in volume and regression.
With that said, let’s update our trade bait, respond to trade offers, and look over the trends and regression due each team after 11 weeks, shall we?
You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.
ARI
James Conner took on an elite share of snaps this week, 76%, finishing as the RB4 on the week with 22.5 points in PPR. It was with only two targets and while his target share was solid for a three-down back (7%) this was probably the exception in terms of his ceiling, as he is ranked as the RB22 in weighted opportunity (W/Opp). The team enters a rough schedule to close out the season the average PPG of running backs facing their schedule scored 50% lower than the league average.
Marquise Brown saw a drop in route share to his season’s low of 17.5%, and Greg Dortch is on a three-game increase hitting his highest yet in week 13 with 20% of the routes along with Trey McBride. We’ve seen better production from Brown of late but the trends in route share are looking to make a liar out of my previous week’s expectations for Brown’s potential in week 14. I’d keep starting him as a top 24 wide receiver but he’s a weaker option right now.
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson solidifies his role as the little spoon part in a committee with Bijan Robinson with 31% of the snaps in week 13, outpacing Tyler Allgeier by 15%.
Kyle Pitts and Drake London continue to run a high number of empty routes. Both are still over 20%, and both are still unable to crack 10 PPR points.
Jonnu Smith returned to the route tree this week, taking third place in opportunity, 12.5% of routes, but once again it had little effect.
CAR
The Carolina running backs seem to have stopped the back and forth as Chuba Hubbard emerged again with a clear lead player over 60% of the snaps for the second week in a row, further pushing Miles Sanders into the smaller part of this committee. Hubbard looks like an every-week starter right now. But with over 20 weighted opportunities the last two weeks (a top-five RB average), he is mostly still reliant on rushing and red zone touches as he once again failed to register a single target or reception, keeping his downside equally as concerning as his upside has been exciting recently.
CLE
Joe Flacco proves he still knows the ball in his return to the NFL. It wasn’t enough to bring home a win against the Rams but 254 passing yards and two passing touchdowns feel like a fine return to fantasy at least.
Jerome Ford showed his upside this week as I finally caught a late-season trend in stride. He had over 50% of the snaps, a decrease but still good enough, and three targets as a nice floor. It was mostly held together with a touchdown, but it remains solid especially since he scored that touchdown through the air, suggesting his receiving work should keep going to maintain his production.
DAL
I can’t pass up the chance to say good things about Jake Ferguson. He’s been a very useful find for teams this season and currently ranks as the TE3 in W/Opp but also the TE1 in total red zone expected value based on the opportunities he has had in the red zone this year. His yards per touchdown are stable at 99 yards per touchdown and I’d expect him to keep him a top-level starter at the position this season.
After Tony Pollard‘s touchdown this week, he’s finally within range of the average yards per touchdown, his role is still highly startable as the RB6 in w/opp. Notably, his snap share has entered rarified air the last two weeks, over 76% in both, whereas Rico Dowdle has seen the inverse falling to 22% and then 18% last week.
DEN
Javonte Williams finished as the RB20 this week. I’m just going to keep highlighting his role until it pays off at this point, 65% of the snaps, only 43% of the rushing attempts, but 12.5% of the targets this last week. He should continue to finish at least in the top 24 with touchdown regression due.
DET
Jameson Williams has averaged 14.3% for the routes over the last three games and managed a rushing touchdown and one rushing attempt inside the 20. It is nice to see the young player get some attention but in dynasty he’s in a sell window if anyone in your league ever shows interest. He’s still very firmly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, and between those more elite options and a solid one-two punch at running back, it’s not going to leave a lot of room on the depth chart for a player this far into his career to transform into something more than we’ve seen so far.
GB
Christian Watson had 9 targets for 71 receiving yards and two touchdowns as the WR8 this week. A second promising week and it’s nice to see but his route share dropped back towards his average (16% in week 13) and he relied once again on those high-value, high-variance, touches in the red zone. He’s a good player in a very high upside role but his route share continues to flag behind Romeo Doubs, just a little, indicating it’s still an easy come, easy go upside on a week-to-week basis.
HOU
Tank Dell is heading to IR and his fantasy season is over, which is bad. Nico Collins took full advantage of the better opportunities, however finishing with 12 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown.
Noah Brown filled in the route tree in Dell’s absence playing on 22% of the routes, the same as Collins, and could have some desperation startabiity.
Dameon Pierce moved up after a very muted return to the field last week from 18% of the snaps to 38% but was still behind Devin Singletary (46%). However, Pierce also got the more favorable red zone role, outtouching Singletary four to one inside the 20-yard line, suggesting the team might be favoring Pierce moving forward or at least producing heavier split than we’d like in fantasy despite Pierce’s inefficiency in the role.
IND
The rookie tight end Will Mallory took home four targets in week 13, I mention it because Indianapolis visit Cincinnati next which has an above-average matchup for the position.
Alec Pierce ran a marginally larger route share even Michael Pittman. Pittman finished as the WR9 on the week with two touchdowns. Pierce snagged two targets inside the 20 in Down’s absence as well.
Zack Moss likely disappointed some folks with his 7.7 PPR points this week but he played on 94% of the team snaps this week and 8.3% of the targets, his upside is still there on a week-by-week basis.
KC
A disappointing week for the Kansas City offense but on the bright side Isiah Pacheco had a season height of 84% of the red zone attempts and has had over 50% of the team touches in the most valuable area of the field in each of the last three weeks. He finished as the RB12 this week.
MIA
De’Von Achane returns to form his week finishing with 21 total opportunities, 103 total yards, and two touchdowns. I’d say he’s due touchdown regression but it’s too obvious and fun and so is everyone in the Miami rushing game, the team is just working at a remarkably high level in 2023 and it’s adding value to all the touches and their expectation should be higher.
NO
AT Perry didn’t pay off this week, but with Alvin Kamara soaking up 55% of the red zone touches there wasn’t much room for anyone else besides Chris Olave, and a random touchdown from Jimmy Graham (yes it’s still 2023) didn’t help. However, despite the setback, he was still second on the team in routes share behind Olave and could easily get more involved over the next few weeks.
NYJ
I don’t know much about Xavier Gipson except that he’s a first-year player who had 16% of the Jet’s targets in week 13, he’s ranked over 16% of the routes in each of the last four weeks and hit a season-high of 21% against Atlanta in week 13 as well as a red zone target with 77 receiving yards and a high aDot of 13.5.
The offense didn’t seem to work any better after Trevor Siemian took over in the fourth quarter. The choice between Siemian and Tim Boyle is not one I envy and it’s bad enough that the team currently expects to start Zach Wilson.
PHI
D’Andre Swift (42% of the snaps) took a back seat to Kenneth Gainwell (54% of the snaps) this week. Gainwell also had six targets, with it notably. Swift did leave the field with an injury late in the game but this week it was a Gainwell-led backfield even before he left. He could have been struggling this week, but Gainwell is worth a roster spot if only to play keep away.
SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming on strong to finish the season, he’s had over 18% of the routes the last three weeks and he’s run over 30 routes in every game since week eight. We saw a definite change in his production between weeks six and nine earlier in the season but if he finishes strong, he could make a case for his value to spike before the off-season hits.
Notably, this hasn’t required a drop in route share from either Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf, he’s just claiming his share of the offense and had back-to-back targets inside the 20 for the first time in his rookie campaign.
TB
Mike Evans finished as the WR7 this week, continuing his career-length run of being on the high-end for touchdown producers with 101 yards per touchdown in 2023. His career average is currently 119 yards per touchdown, which is on the high end.
Chris Godwin couldn’t bring home a single receiving yard, true he only had three targets, but it is a little surprising for Godwin. He saved the day somewhat with a rushing touchdown and currently should be scoring more touchdowns, presumably receiving ones, based on his season numbers in the red zone.
TEN
Chris Moore still ran over 15% of the routes in week 13 but the production swung towards Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who runs much further down the field with a 15.3 adot in week 13, suggesting this is just roving production going to different weapons based on the game script rather than growing roles in the offense behind DeAndre Hopkins. With the vanishing of Treylon Burks still on our mind it’s probably time to expect the team to address the receiving position more aggressively this off-season to get Hopkins some help.
WAS
That’s about all I have for you right now. But let me know what you think and feel free to look through my data to make your observations.
Until next week, good luck, and have fun.
Pahowdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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