Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week Eight
We are about halfway through the regular season and IDP numbers are flying around like empty bottles at a college Halloween party. Here are some good ones for you.
1. The correlation between snaps and tackle efficiency for LBs is huge
To be precise, the R2 so far this season is up to 0.946. Over a full season, we normally expect that number to be between 0.96 to 0.99. For those not mathematically inclined, R2 indicates how well two sets of numbers match. 0.00 indicates no relationship at all while 1.00 (or -1.00) indicates a perfect correlation.
So, 0.946 is huge. There are still people in IDP who do not want to believe that tackles are primarily just a function of playing time, but the maths proves it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
2. The Ravens are allowing 4.2 yards per play. The Broncos 6.3. All other teams average out at 5.2
I haven’t seen the Ravens get all that much credit for being a top defense, but they are elite and far out ahead of other teams in terms of giving up yards and points in comparison to the volume of plays they’ve had to defend.
3. Roy Robertson-Harris has spent a whopping 72% of his defensive snaps rushing the passer
The average for interior linemen with >100 defensive snaps this season is just 57%. He’s sixth at the position for pass-rush snaps, and seventh in pressures.
He’s never shown all that much as a pass-rusher beyond isolated spots, but right now he’s having a great time of it, and his usage suggests it could continue.
4. Dexter Lawrence currently leads all interior linemen with 44 pressures
This is not a huge shock after his elite 2022 season, and the weird game against the Jets last week, but he is tearing it up right now.
He’s the red dot here to give you an idea of how effective he’s been.
Remember, when David Gettleman drafted him early people universally scoffed at the terrible pick on a nose tackle. Which just shows how little we all know about how things can pan out.
5. Tyree Wilson, whom the Raiders selected seventh overall is currently 197th among edges in pressures
Now admittedly he’s not played that much yet. He’s 70th in pass rush snaps. But he’s been the Raiders’ #2 guy all season long as you can see with their weekly snaps.
This next chart shows Wilson’s pass rush snaps vs productivity.
It’s not easy being a rookie in the NFL. But for such a high pick to struggle like this is still noteworthy.
It’s also worth remembering that there’s this belief that playing across from an elite edge makes it easier on the other guy. And yet Wilson appears to be reaping no benefit from Maxx Crosby’s continued excellence at all. See earlier articles on DLF for much more analysis on why that particular old wives’ tale is simply not true.
6. The Browns still do not have a linebacker with more than 300 snaps on the season
Anthony Walker leads the way with just 285, which makes him 56th among all linebackers.
Sure, the Browns are playing an especially low volume of defensive snaps, but even so they are just not deploying any full-time linebackers, again.
Do not trust any of these guys as IDPs.
7. Darious Williams leads all corners with 11 PDs. No one else has more than seven
It absolutely helps that he’s played a huge amount of football, but this chart will show you just what an eye for the ball he’s had this season. This does not even include interceptions.
If you want your IDP league to reward real-life good play for corners, then this is a key stat for you and Williams is having a brilliant 2023.
8. Taron Johnson leads all corners with 90 snaps in the box
He’s just 12th in tackles at the position, and has not been scoring brilliantly yet (depending on your scoring settings) but he’s in prime position to start racking up points.
He’s been spectacular IDP of course, but that was some years ago now. Which corners score well is often random (remember when Marlon Humphrey randomly smashed recovered fumbles for one season?), but you have to put faith in someone, and Johnson has the right sort of opportunity.
9. The two most-targeted safeties in the NFL are both Vikings
Camryn Bynum and Josh Metellus both have 40 targets each. No other safety has more than 30.
The two of them are highlighted in purple on this chart.
It does help that the Vikings are running a very high number of three-safety looks with Bynum, Metellus and Harrison Smith all average 60 snaps per week.
But still, that’s a pair of data points that appear to indicate a clear tendency of offenses playing them.
10. The Jaguars lead the league with 18 defensive takeaways
They’ve nabbed the ball on 3.4% of all defensive snaps. The average for all other teams is just 2.1%. The average number of takeaways for all other teams is just a shade over ten.
No one likes to admit it, but defensive turnovers are pretty random. Sure each individual one is normally a particular bit of skill or foresight. But all together, which teams manage to take the ball away is pretty flukey. So please do not fall under the impression this is a particular bit of skill or coaching the Jags have.
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 16 - December 29, 2023
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- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 14 - December 14, 2023
