Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Three

Peter Howard

Welcome back, let’s get to it shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage and regression from week three.

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: Zach Ertz losing his role?

Last week we called a bounce back in the rushing game on this somewhat mediocre team and James Conner paid that bet, finishing as the RB6 on the week.

This week I’m going to highlight Ertz. His 2.6 points last week weren’t rewarding even as a deeper stream but he still has top 12 volume for the position in Weighted Opportunity and picked up another target inside the 20-yard line this week. So, he’s “due” touchdowns if his usage keeps, but will it?

Since week one, his route percentage has dropped from 20% to 16% in week three. His snap share has fallen from 77% to 59% and his Yards Per Route Run has been dismal, outside of week two, 2.6, mostly coming in below 1 YRR.

On the other hand, Tre McBride has increased in volume, though not a lot. His route percentage went from 6% in week one to 8% in week three, and his snap share went from 37% in week one to 49%. If he’s “taking over” it’s a very slow burn, but right now it’s trending that way.

Most players break out all at once, but some are slower. That doesn’t speak to their ultimate potential, but it does mean we should remain cautiously optimistic while having reasonable expectations for his ceiling.

Side Note: Rondale Moore had a good week. I still think he’s a very talented player stuck in a less-than-great “hybrid” role like so many lower aDot players these days. His target share should be higher but so far rookie Michael Wilson is still putting up fierce competition with 18% of the team's routes per game.

ATL: Bijan Robinson is the only viable weekly option

At some point, we’ll have to talk about buy-low windows on Kyle Pitts and Drake London again, but I can’t face up to having the same conversation every week just yet.

In the meantime, London’s touchdowns did indeed regress this week, and Pitts dropped in route percentage, but he still had 20% of the routes and leads the team this season with 22%. Jonnu Smith didn’t “take” those routes and despite higher YRR so far, he also lost 5% of his routes this week. I don’t think Smith has any value or starter potential long-term.


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