Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Three
Welcome back, let’s get to it shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage and regression from week three.
You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.
ARI: Zach Ertz losing his role?
Last week we called a bounce back in the rushing game on this somewhat mediocre team and James Conner paid that bet, finishing as the RB6 on the week.
This week I’m going to highlight Ertz. His 2.6 points last week weren’t rewarding even as a deeper stream but he still has top 12 volume for the position in Weighted Opportunity and picked up another target inside the 20-yard line this week. So, he’s “due” touchdowns if his usage keeps, but will it?
Since week one, his route percentage has dropped from 20% to 16% in week three. His snap share has fallen from 77% to 59% and his Yards Per Route Run has been dismal, outside of week two, 2.6, mostly coming in below 1 YRR.
On the other hand, Tre McBride has increased in volume, though not a lot. His route percentage went from 6% in week one to 8% in week three, and his snap share went from 37% in week one to 49%. If he’s “taking over” it’s a very slow burn, but right now it’s trending that way.
Most players break out all at once, but some are slower. That doesn’t speak to their ultimate potential, but it does mean we should remain cautiously optimistic while having reasonable expectations for his ceiling.
Side Note: Rondale Moore had a good week. I still think he’s a very talented player stuck in a less-than-great “hybrid” role like so many lower aDot players these days. His target share should be higher but so far rookie Michael Wilson is still putting up fierce competition with 18% of the team’s routes per game.
ATL: Bijan Robinson is the only viable weekly option
At some point, we’ll have to talk about buy-low windows on Kyle Pitts and Drake London again, but I can’t face up to having the same conversation every week just yet.
In the meantime, London’s touchdowns did indeed regress this week, and Pitts dropped in route percentage, but he still had 20% of the routes and leads the team this season with 22%. Jonnu Smith didn’t “take” those routes and despite higher YRR so far, he also lost 5% of his routes this week. I don’t think Smith has any value or starter potential long-term.
Bijan Robinson, while still splitting the red zone work and rushing attempts with Tyler Allgeier, is the only player on the team trending upwards in snap% and is already the RB11 on the season in PPG. Allgeier is trending down in snap share and Robinson had a season-high 50% of the rushing attempts and 81% of the snaps this week. Robinson’s target share on the season, 19%, is phenomenal and remained so even with his return to earth in week three at 15%.
Robinson is the only clear weekly starter on the team right now.
BUF: Dalton Kincaid moving in the right direction
Kincaid saw his season low in snap share last week, 51%, and route percentage, 14%. However so did Dawson Knox in what was likely a matchup factor against Washington who have allowed bottom five points to the position this season (and last season).
Broadly he is splitting the work with Knox still, but that’s a positive for a rookie who, over time, is much more likely to increase in role than established players.
BAL: Gus Edwards did okay, Zay Flowers should do better
While Flowers’ aDot is a concern, his volume is not. Two weeks with an aDot of 2.8 and one above 10 is not ideal. But his route percentage was still over 20% and he has 31% of the red zone touches – for when they can put up more than 19 points.
They are facing Cleveland this week, who have allowed league-low points to every position so far in 2023. Flowers is still a starting option for most teams, but we may have to curb our expectations for another week.
Of course, when Lamar Jackson can put up over 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, the lead running back is always a little hamstrung, but Edwards is a deep option if the backfield maintains this structure. He had a season-high 29% for rushing attempts last week, and Melvin Gordon split the role and also took 6.7% of the team’s target share.
CAR: I defamed Adam Thielen and Andy Dalton came back to the league to prove me wrong
I put the majority of Carolina’s struggles on the shoulders of the receiving corps last week, only to have Dalton put together a top-ten performance at the position and help Thielen to WR3 overall in week three.
Whoops? I wouldn’t bet on this being a regular event, however.
The Seahawks have allowed the second most points per game to the wide receiver position this year, so matchup likely played a role.
Then again, DJ Chark finished as the WR15… so yeah maybe Bryce Young should do better this season when he returns.
CHI: Did you “sell” Justin Fields yet?
Well, did you?
CIN: Ja’Marr Chase is the WR5… without touchdowns
Tee Higgins should have more regular starting weeks, but the thing that sticks out to me the most is that Chase is one of the highest-scoring wide receivers right now without having scored a touchdown yet. He has 35% of the team’s red zone touches as well, so if Joe Burrow can get his groove back this should mark the low point for Chase and Higgins.
The first two weeks were borderline useable for fantasy but the ceiling matters in a weekly game and there should be more to come.
CLE: More upside in Amari Cooper?
I’m not in the habit of thinking players cede volume to one another but right now Cleveland has three wide receivers with over 20% of the routes per game and while Cooper is the lead fantasy asset here, I think over time Donovan Peoples-Jones should become less involved, perhaps leading to Cooper’s top 12 volume into more top 12 weeks.
Cooper had his season-high snaps, 82%, and routes, 22%, in week three and I think that trend continues.
Elijah Moore has top 24 volume, and I think this leads to higher producing weeks in Cleveland and for Deshaun Watson, whose performance so far based on EPA/Opportunity, has been somewhat lackluster despite finishing in the top 12 two out of three weeks.
Kareem Hunt quickly made Pierre Strong a third wheel taking 9% of the target share, Strong hit 0% in week three. The majority of the work stayed with Jerome Ford, however, who had the same level of target share but also 32% of the rushing attempts (Hunt had 16%).
That dual role for Ford could lead to a lot of startable weeks but through one week I’m not yet entirely sure Hunt can take control of more touches.
DAL: All the red zone attempts, and not enough to show for it
Dallas leads the league in targets and rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line in 2023, but most of the team, from Tony Pollard to Jake Ferguson, is underproducing on those touches.
It might be easy to blame Dak Prescott for this, however I think he also must be part of the reason they are getting into the red zone so often. On balance, my main takeaway is that, over time, this is going to result in a lot more touchdowns.
There’s not a lot to separate Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks in terms of volume or role, except that Gallup was able to take advantage of it last week. CeeDee Lamb should remain a top-12 dynasty receiver by the end of the season, though his floor remains slightly muted, and Pollard should have a lot more ceiling weeks to come.
DEN: Is Javonte Williams good?
Last week I said, “Javonte Williams has some top 12 games coming, but not yet.” Well, I stand by that. Samaje Perine continues to be the only other RB with significant volume, especially target share, but he fell in snaps (31%) and target share (8%) last week.
While Williams doesn’t have a stranglehold on the role yet, and the team isn’t passing inside the red zone enough there is more upside here. For now, he’s a flex option.
HOU: Tank Dell could last, CJ Stroud making a case for himself as a top-tier Dynasty QB, and buy Dameon Pierce
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, and we don’t want to give in to it too often. But we’ve been tracking this breakout since week one and it seemed to come to fruition against Jacksonville last week.
Dell had 19% of the team’s routes in week three and now has back-to-back top 24 finishes (WR7 in week three). His volume isn’t top 12, but the floor looks very solid right now.
As a rookie, Stroud is making a case for himself as a top-tier option in dynasty with back-to-back top-12 finishes, and it looks real to me.
Pierce finished top 15 last week and he should do that more often on his volume moving forward. I’d buy into that volume on this team right now.
Brevin Jordan may well be a single-week isolated result but despite his 17% of routes Dalton Schultz looks primed to lose his role if Jordan can keep up the momentum. Schultz is underperforming his target share by 4% on his route volume and earning targets 8% less often than expected and his snap share has fallen each week in 2023.
IND: Zack Moss looks real, the Colts need to figure this Josh Downs thing out
Alec Pierce saw a rise in routes in week three but, once again, Downs did more with less and still leads in target share despite this hamstringing.
Having said that, Pierce’s aDot climbed a lot in week three while Downs continues to run shorter routes. I think their performance on earning targets justifies a change, but coaches care about winning games, and I’m biased toward fantasy points.
Through two games, Moss has top-three volume at the position, and over 20 points each week. He’s a starter and a potential league winner right now.
JAC: Calvin Ridley needs to find his groove again
I’m as happy to see Christian Kirk back to his ole’ self as anyone but I much preferred Ridley’s ole self in week one. Ridley still leads in weighted opportunity, route percentage, and target share, so I think it’s coming back.
Trevor Lawrence is struggling this season, there’s no ignoring it, but hopefully, these two can find their groove again soon.
KC: Rashee Rice still is the only Chiefs wide receiver I’m interested in
That is all.
LAC: Josh Palmer once again took over, Quentin Johnston remains in a buy window
Keenan Allen is the WR1 in fantasy football, I just wanted to say that. The news about Mike Williams‘ ACL is terrible, but there are some things to celebrate in LA. Allen is currently proving the worth of team old guy as he is the overall lead scorer at the position.
Still, his target share is unlikely to remain at 32%. While he’s always been a high-volume receiver with a sub-10 aDot, he hasn’t finished a season over 23% in target share for the last few years.
While the loss of Williams leads to some hope for Johnston, I have to insist that you understand that’s not real. The fact is that he should have been earning targets with Williams around, but not all rookie seasons are created equal, so we were allowing for later-season breakout potential already.
Again, it’s early in the season, and some players break out all at once but trying to balance risk and reward is my main way of playing dynasty, and there is a tightrope to walk here.
Palmer immediately took up the extra slack from Williams’s loss in week three, something we’ve seen him able to do before, rising to an 18% route share. However, that was in the game, an immediate adjustment, and Palmer has proven he can earn targets in that role. It tells us little about what will happen but does nothing to suggest what we hope might happen is suddenly more likely.
Donald Parham is seriously outkicking his coverage with two top 6 weeks with 8% of routes and 6% of targets. But when you have Justin Herbert preferring you in the red zone, that can happen. He’s a shaky weekly starter but a solid streaming option so far.
LAR: Puka Nacua Finds Stability
This was a much more stable game from Nacua this week, a poor result for some relative to the last few weeks, I’m sure, but it helped to stabilize his overall trends well.
His volume is solid, his aDot low, and if he has anything like a normal TD rate he’s a top 24 wide receiver moving forward.
LV: Michael Mayer is trending up… barely
Austin Hooper dropped from 16% of the team’s routes to 14% in week two, and in week three he didn’t record a stat. Meanwhile, Mayer followed up his first NFL catch in week two with his second NFL target… still only one catch.
While it’s not positive on the face of it, his routes increased from 9 in week two to 19 in week three. It’s the right direction at least.
Side note: Jakobi Meyers is pound-for-pound the volume player Davante Adams is right now, both over 30% of targets and 25% of the team’s routes! That should even out, and Adams will stay closer to those numbers long-term. But never miss an opportunity to point at a UDFA doing well in my opinion. I’m starting Meyers as a top-24 WR this week.
MIA: De’Von Achane… hot damn
I mean, I especially appreciate the way Achane didn’t stop Raheem Mostert from having his own 45-point game. Needless to say, having access to players on this team in 2023 is a good idea. Achane has the inside track on a more stable week-to-week volume based on his draft capital and target share. Mostert is a borderline flex option.
It’s the kind of thing I wish I’d thought of last week, and considering how high I had Achane ranked in the rookie drafts I probably should have.
Durham Smythe, who I have been interested in since week one, took a significant step back in routes (6% this week). I am still keeping him on my benches but it looks like Achane is going to shake up this receiving depth chart up a bit.
MIN: You’re way too low on Jordan Addison
Addison is having a Jaylen Waddle-esque rookie season so far: good, impressive, and underrated for other shiny rookie performances so far. Like Josh Downs, he’s still overperforming his route percentage. All of Minnesota is scoring too much on their touches in the receiving game.
But Addison has seen 17% of the routes in the last two games and finished with over 16 points in PPR scoring twice.
NYJ: Buy Breece Hall
It may be your last chance. He had his highest rushing share, 51%, and snap share, 49%, in week three, and we saw what he could do with less in week one. He’s trending up in usage as he comes back from his off-season recovery and that should lead to more positive fantasy results.
PHI: AJ Brown is due infinite touchdowns, basically (also don’t sleep on D’Andre Swift)
Brown joined Ja’Marr Chase in the: “who needs touchdowns to be a top 12 wide receiver?” club this week.
Okay, week three wasn’t as great for Swift as week two, but to be honest, how could it be? His volume is still top 12, and Kenneth Gainwell isn’t shaking that tree anytime soon.
TB: Chris Godwin is due touchdowns
Whatever they have figured out for Baker Mayfield to finally be able to offer replacement-level passing to the NFL, it’s certainly not their red zone performance. Mayfield has underperformed inside the 20-yard line and Godwin, because of his major role there, should score better based on that volume moving forward.
TEN: We’re officially panicking on Treylon Burks
There’s always some reason why a talented player can put it together based on one stat or narrative or the other. The fact is he should have impressed by now and if you can bail out for anything like a first in value, it’s time to seriously consider it.
Well, that’s about all I have for you right now. But let me know what you think and feel free to look through my data to make your observations.
Until next week, good luck, and have fun.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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