Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why:
Buy – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
I was a massive believer in Stevenson during the off-season. I believed he was one of the few workhorse backs in the league and that the upgrade to Bill O’Brien as a play-caller would be massive for his fantasy production. Through three weeks, he has somewhat flattered to deceive. He is sat as the RB14, averaging 12.4 points per game, and has yet to post a single top-12 week at the position.
The good sign is that the volume is there. Through three weeks he is averaging 15.3 rush attempts per game and 4.3 targets per game. The issue has been that the Patriots have faced the Eagles, Dolphins, and Jets, three of the league’s better defenses. Stevenson is vital to the Patriots’ offense and will likely see some more friendly game scripts moving forward. He has yet to break a big run, which would greatly help his efficiency and help buoy his production. I’d happily still pay a random future first to acquire Stevenson, but given his slow start, you may be able to acquire him cheaper right now.
Buy – Chris Olave, WR NO
Olave is a superstar. He produced incredibly well as a rookie and is having an excellent start to his sophomore season. However, he is currently the WR12 on the season, even though he has yet to score a touchdown. Touchdowns are traditionally inconsistent and can come in waves. The league’s average so far this year is a touchdown for every 178.8 receiving yards. If Olave had the average touchdowns for his 302 yards, he would be the WR6 overall. If that were the case, we may be talking about him as the dynasty WR2 or WR3. I would happily pay multiple firsts to secure Olave right now, and it may be your final opportunity to buy before the price becomes unobtainable.
Sell – Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Okay, bear with me on this one. Jefferson is an absolute fantasy superstar; he was deservedly the 1.01 in one quarterback startup this summer and is the only non-quarterback I would take in the top ten of a superflex startup. Now that I’ve said all that, I wonder if we may be entering a peak value sell window. The Vikings have not had a phenomenal start to the season and currently sit 0-3. Their competitive rebuild is now looking more like a traditional rebuild. The likelihood is that Kirk Cousins is playing his final season for the team.
Heading into next season, unless something drastic happens, the Vikings will likely have a rookie signal caller under center who would be less than ideal for Justin Jefferson’s fantasy production. Historically, rookie quarterbacks negatively impact their wide receivers’ fantasy production. It would be tough for Jefferson to produce overall WR1 production with a rookie quarterback. If we play this out, Jefferson would likely be heading into the 2025 season coming off a slightly down year and may struggle to get back to the overall WR1 value he currently holds.
The critical thing here is that I’m not suggesting Jefferson is a sell at all costs. If you’re a contender and can win a title this year, I’d hold Jefferson. I would only consider selling Jefferson if you can get an absolute haul that his current value would warrant. I would be looking for a young star plus considerable draft capital. Could you pivot from Jefferson to a player like Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, plus a first? You may even be able to get more than just one first. If you can sell Jefferson for a haul the next few weeks may be the last chance to sell for “peak value”.
Sell – Russell Wilson, QB DEN
Wilson is not the same player he was when he was in Seattle. I’m not breaking any news revealing that. With the Broncos at 0-3, having recently appointed Sean Payton as a very highly-priced head coach, there will be some changes if they don’t turn around their ways and start winning some games. Despite his contract, Wilson is the obvious player who could be held up as the scapegoat for their poor start. If that happens, his dynasty value will plummet.
The Broncos paid backup Jarrett Stidham significant money with $5m guaranteed to back Wilson, and there is a scenario where they see what they have in him. This may never happen, and Wilson may play out the rest of this season and beyond and continue to churn out QB production for your fantasy team. However, there is a very real scenario where he gets benched, and his fantasy value evaporates.
If you can move him for a first-round pick in a superflex league, I would grab it and run. Alternatively, you could pivot from Wilson to another player in the same value range with more security, like Derek Carr or Kenny Pickett. You may even be able to pivot to a player like Matthew Stafford and get something on top for your trouble.
Rebuilding Buy – Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
If you’re rebuilding, the critical thing is to be proactive. Don’t just sit there counting the days until the rookie draft. Continuously be sniffing around other teams for an opportunity to scoop up some value. Wilson is not producing like the superstar we all hoped he would be. That is almost all down to the quarterback play. Any contender rostering Wilson may be getting nervous that he won’t produce when they need it most. If you can ounce and buy at a discount, you will have a superstar when you’re looking to compete next year without having to pay the superstar price.
I need more information – Jakobi Meyers, WR LV
Through three weeks, Meyers is the WR5 in points per game. He and Davante Adams have combined for a 71.2% target share in the Raiders offense. I like the talent of Meyers as a secondary receiver across from a star, but I need to see more production like this before I can buy in that he is a top 36 wide receiver moving forward. It could be that I missed out on a buy window. However, I would much rather be patient with Meyers and miss out than overpay for a player who could decline in value if he can’t continue to command the volume.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 26, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 19, 2024
