Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week Four
It’s rough out there. In addition to the known preseason injuries (e.g., Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp), fantasy-relevant players continue to be lost to IR. This includes players out for the short term (e.g., Diontae Johnson), as well as those who have unfortunately been lost for the season (e.g., Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, and now Mike Williams). Given this, we dynasty owners need to be honest with ourselves to determine whether the losses of these players, or their eventual return, have a material impact on our lineups. In dynasty football, it’s prudent to remember that if you’re not finishing in the top two, you’re best served finishing in the bottom two – middle of the pack is the worst place you can possibly be. So while I’m making the below recommendations in a vacuum, your team’s construction also needs to figure in.
Disclaimer time! Now that real, live football is upon us, I need to clarify the overarching rationale behind my advice. As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Therefore and for example, when I say a player is a “buy high,” it’s not solely due to the week he just had. Instead, guidance will also take into account his current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he performed.
Much as in previous iterations of this weekly series, I will list one player apiece who I’ve bucketed into the following categories:
- Buy low
- Buy high
- Sell low / Drop
- Sell high
- Add (Big Bucks)
- Add (Pennies)
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week four:
Buy Low – De’Von Achane, RB MIA
Week 3 Line: 18-203-2, 4-30-2 (4 targets)
Three of the simplest words in the English language are often the hardest to say, but you don’t win prizes for stubbornness in this hobby of ours.
I. Was. Wrong.
At this point, it doesn’t matter what the design was at the season’s outset, when we still thought Jeff Wilson Jr. was healthy and Achane wasn’t. And while veteran Raheem Mostert has excelled in his own right and has decent tread left on his tires, the fact is he’s nearly a decade older than his rookie teammate and will eventually cede the reins. I didn’t think it was going to turn out this way, and for that reason own zero shares of Achane. Again, I. Was. Wrong.
But this is why pencils have erasers, and you can learn from my mistake. Though his value will undoubtedly rise, Achane was valued as a low-end RB3 per this month’s ADP, meaning it’s possible you can still get him for RB2 prices if you act quickly. If you’re a gambler, you can wait a week and bet on the Bills posing a stiffer challenge than the sad-sack Broncos, with the Miami running backs seeing neither the same workload nor efficiency. This may at least create a smidgen of buffer from Achane’s 51.3-point explosion. Regardless, the fact is Achane has now earned his slice of the pie and will more than likely function as a flex-level player or better for the rest of the year.
As an addendum to this advice, contending owners should make a play for Mostert as well! Incredibly he’s the PPR RB1 on the year, 12 points clear of Christian McCaffrey. He will undoubtedly not sustain this pace, but much like Achane should return starter-caliber value moving forward.
Week 3 running back finishes courtesy of FF Today.
Buy High – Zay Flowers, WR BAL
Week 3 Line: 8-48-0 (10 targets), one carry for two yards
The Ravens’ passing offense hasn’t been quite as voluminous as predicted under new coordinator Todd Monken, with the team only averaging 28.7 attempts per game. With merely two aerial scores and an aggregate 7.1 YPA, it’s also fair to speculate that even if volume doesn’t significantly increase, there’s still meat left on the efficiency bone. That’s where the rookie comes in.
As shown using the Player Targets App from our friends at 4for4.com, Flowers is seeing elite usage, leading the team in both overall targets and targets per game. Odell Beckham has been injured and Rashod Bateman has been ineffective, leading to a consolidation of looks between Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews. And though they’ve largely been of the empty calorie variety, the Boston College product has caught an outrageous 84% of his 25 targets, meaning on average he’s accumulating 7.0 PPG alone solely from the point-per-reception. If he’s used downfield more (similar to week two against the Bengals) and manages to get into the end zone, his statistics could approach WR1 territory as a rookie.
Sell Low/Drop – Terrace Marshall, Jr., WR CAR
Week 3 Line: 5-35-0 (8 targets)
Celebrating Halloween early as the Invisible Man, color me surprised Marshall managed to accrue eight targets in a Week 3 loss to the Seahawks. Unfortunately he did precious little with them, and on the year has only managed 58 yards on 14 looks (4.1 YPT). Continuing, the Panthers offense hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire, which means the team’s WR4 isn’t going to be providing high-end output, particularly with running back Miles Sanders and tight end Hayden Hurst also ahead of him in the pecking order.
While I know Marshall came into the league young and began to show some promise in his sophomore season, he now stands as a player whose upside is purely theoretical, not practical. Roster spots have value, especially in shallower leagues, and the end of your team’s bench should be for players with a realistic (even if small) chance of providing fantasy value. If you can nab any of his player comparables in DLF’s Trade Analyzer you will have done well – if not, you can safely drop him. Putting my money where my mouth is, I’ve already done the same in one of my long-running leagues.
Sell High – Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Week 3 Line: 5-41-0 (9 targets)
I just don’t know what to tell you here. On the positive side of the ledger, we know Pitts is still somehow only 22 years old (23 in October) despite this being his third NFL season. We also know that he is an athletic freak who had an early NFL breakout with a 1,000-yard rookie season. But it’s all just been thoroughly, mind-numbingly awful since then.
Thus far in 2023 Pitts is the PPR TE19. His total of 18.6 PPR points is just one more than TE1 TJ Hockenson’s average weekly output. His highest yardage total on the (admittedly early) year is 44, and he’s yet to eclipse 10 PPR points in a single week. For a guy rated as TE3 by DLF’s Dynasty ADP, these are unacceptable numbers.
We know that it’s not all his fault, as the Falcons are only supplying a weekly (and weakly) 37.8 PPR points to their pass-catching corps. With fellow first-round picks Drake London and Bijan Robinson also vying for their respective slices of the pie, what’s ultimately available for any individual in the passing game is little more than crumbs. But as was noted with Marshall above, theory needs to merge with practice at some point – despite his theoretical upside, not only is Pitts not scoring you points, but it’s possible you’re benching better options at the position (fantasy value, not dynasty value) simply because you don’t want to miss a Pitts blow-up game.
Green Day once sang “wake me up when September ends.” I’ll put a dynasty spin on that, solely because come October I’m keen to see if anything changes to Pitts’ current early fourth-round ADP if he doesn’t start contributing useful fantasy numbers. If you’re worried he’s in for more of the same, consideration should be given to cashing out for commensurate value.
Add (Big Bucks) – Justin Watson, WR KC
Week 3 Line: 2-51-0 (3 targets)
If Josh Palmer is available in your league, he should be this week’s top add given the injury to teammate Williams. Similarly, if Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is on the wire, he’s another priority pickup given his increasing utilization in the passing game. However, DLF’s September ADP suggests both are probably already rostered.
Enter Kansas City’s veteran receiver Watson.
We always want pieces of fantasy gold mine offenses like the Chiefs, as they are helmed by the best quarterback in the NFL. Continuing, while all-world tight end and noted Swiftie Travis Kelce is going to function as the team’s top target, there’s a surprising amount of chaos behind him with four other players between 78 and 112 yards on the year. Somehow eclipsing them all is Watson, who on the season has turned 12 targets into a respectable 7-158-0 line. He’s done so by functioning as the team’s deep threat with an aDOT of 22.9 yards, and a total of 146 air yards.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Your discretion here will likely depend upon your feelings of the rest of the team’s receiving corps. I personally believe Kadarius Toney is a fantasy black hole and pay him little mind. Rashee Rice carries some intrigue but is likely to see his share of rookie miscues, and while sophomore Skyy Moore appears to be turning the corner he’s far from a polished product. Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s surname is an effective form of foreshadowing, as there’s scant reason to believe the soon-to-be 29-year-old is going to turn into an alpha in his sixth NFL campaign.
Perhaps the same could be said about Watson, but he’s been leading the way thus far as a more effective version of MVS. I’d likely prefer him in best ball, or as an upside play in my last FLEX spot in a matchup where my opponent is favored. Though not true “big bucks” territory, he’s worth a look at 5-10% of your FAAB budget.
Add (Pennies) – Donald Parham, TE LAC
Week 3 Line: 2-4-2 (2 targets)
Through three contests, Parham is doing his best season-long impression of former NFL running back Jerome Bettis’ legendary “three touchdowns on one yard” game. To that point, and as always adding the context that tight end is a grisly position, Parham had turned seven targets and 32 yards into a current standing as the PPR TE6.
This, of course, needs an asterisk of a font size my editors would deem irresponsible, since Parham has managed to turn three of his six receptions into scores. This has led to two top-six (as of Monday afternoon) weekly finishes and one as the PPR TE50, effectively redefining the concept of “feast or famine.” But with Mike Williams’ injury there exists the possibility of the veteran potentially putting together a career year, which admittedly is a low bar to hurdle given his prior heights resulted in a 20-190-3 line on 27 targets.
As to the question of whether he will continue turning every other catch into a score, well, I’m not saying he will, but I’m also not saying he won’t, either. Okay, yeah. In seriousness, I’m unequivocally saying he won’t – but if I have an empty spot at the end of my bench, I’d spend 1-2% of my FAAB budget for him to prove me wrong and score those points for my roster instead of my league mates.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.
