Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC East

With the NFL draft now months behind us and training camp/preseason just around the corner, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple of months (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF top 250 rankings;
• The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s continue with the NFC East! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Dallas Cowboys

Buy: Deuce Vaughn, RB (ADP = 213.7, Rank = 238.1)

I’ll preface this take by noting it would be unsurprising to see Vaughn’s ADP and ranking increase over the coming weeks given how well he’s shown in preseason action. Still, even a modest uptick could yield the Cowboys’ RB2 behind incumbent starter Tony Pollard. And while Pollard has proven explosive his whole career, he still has yet to sequester more than 232 touches in a year, and it’s fair to wonder if his efficiency might suffer.

Despite a diminutive stature (5’6”, 172 pounds), Vaughn has never had such concerns, accounting for 22.9 touches per game (3.4 receptions) over his final two collegiate seasons. While he shouldn’t be needed for that type of output in Dallas, it stands as assurance that he should be able to answer the bell when called upon. At cost, I’d rather have him than fellow pint-sized rookie De’Von Achane.

Sell: Malik Davis, RB (ADP = 190.8, Rank = 243.6)

If one goes up, one must commensurately go down. As of the most current ADP, Davis is viewed as the preferred backup running back amongst the dynasty masses. While this is solely my opinion, I can see he and Vaughn effectively flip-flopping positions within the next few weeks. In fact, our friends at 4for4 already have Davis as the RB5 in the team’s depth chart. I don’t know if I agree with the exact order of the team’s RB2-5 bucket, but ESPN also has him behind teammates Pollard, Vaughn and Rico Dowdle.

It’s prudent to remember Davis is a former 2022 UDFA who came into the NFL as an older player after spending five years in college. Despite this tenure, he never received over 100 carries in a given year, and was only utilized as a pass catcher in his final two seasons. He didn’t receive an invite to the NFL Combine, but at his Pro Day combined fine explosion testing with lackluster speed.

This is all to say that it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see him lose value as others with actual draft capital step in. I think dynasty owners were more concerned about the value of the RB1b role in Dallas that they simply didn’t care who it was, even though Davis carries more red flags than bona fides. The window is likely closing, but there may still be time for owners to cash out.

Hold: Michael Gallup, WR (ADP = 186.7, Rank = 128.0)

I’m not honestly sure what to make of Gallup’s ADP journey. He lost some value in early 2022, which is sensible given he had just torn his ACL. However he largely maintained it despite a slower post-injury year, only falling a little over a round between March, 2022 and December, 2022. It’s at this point that he began a free fall to a nadir of an ADP of 198.0 in April, 2023.

Gallup seems to have been appropriately “punished” in that month due to the team’s trade for receiver Brandin Cooks, but there doesn’t appear to be context for the successive declines in prior months. Given what little Dallas did in the draft, Gallup should function as the second or third option in the passing game along with CeeDee Lamb and Cooks. Another year removed from injury and still in his prime at 27 years old, he’s a strong hold as a player likely to outperform his valuation as the WR80.

New York Giants

Buy: Jalin Hyatt, WR (ADP = 140.2, Rank = 160.4)

Just one month ago, I referred to Hyatt as the likeliest riser on the Giants. Since that point in time he’s had some strong moments in training camp, including playing with the first-team offense and getting open for deep scores from starter Daniel Jones. This isn’t surprising, as Hyatt was the draft’s best deep threat – but what was unclear was whether he could function outside of a receiver-friendly scheme.

Only time will tell, but early returns have been promising. Hyatt’s ADP has already increased by 16 spots, and a few more splash plays (he just caught a touchdown in the team’s second preseason game) and positive camp reports could yield additional inflation. Given his lower-than-anticipated draft capital, the window to buy may be open slightly longer than usual, but I won’t be surprised when it slams shut in the coming months.

Sell: Darren Waller, TE (ADP = 81.8, Rank = 102.8)

If I’m going back to the well with Hyatt, I don’t see any reason not to do so with teammate Waller, who I viewed as the Giants’ likeliest faller. Similar to Hyatt, however, Waller has instead risen, gaining over a round of value in the past month.

Not to sound like a broken record, but I’d prefer several of the players behind Waller, and am surprised that Pat Freiermuth and Sam LaPorta are 15 and 19 spots lower, respectively. The fact is, at nearly 31 years old Waller needs to have a monster season to even tread water, something he hasn’t been able to do for the past few years. Camp reports have been positive, but there are multiple mouths to feed on an offense that had the t-seventh-fewest passing scores, seventh-fewest passing yards, and 11th-fewest completions in 2022. If it was the year 2020 I’d be all in, but today’s valuation is too close to Waller’s ceiling for my liking.

Hold: Saquon Barkley, RB (ADP = 18.0, Rank = 17.1)

Channeling his best John Wick, following a huge 2022 season I can imagine a resurgent Barkley exclaiming “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back!” And while he did indeed finish as 2022’s PPR RB5, there was still some meat left on the bone.

Notably, Barkley very nearly returned to his rookie year rushing efficiency in terms of points per opportunity (left panel). However, he had the worst points per receiving opportunity of his career (right panel), with a subpar 5.9 YPR and zero receiving scores. Barkley’s fantasy fortunes will massively improve if he can return to his 2019 efficiency, where he turned a similar number of targets into 100 more yards and two scores, or even his 2021 efficiency where he added 0.5 yards to each reception and also found the end zone. Were this to come to fruition, he could again find himself as a first-round pick in 2024 dynasty startup drafts.

Philadelphia Eagles

Buy: Kenneth Gainwell, RB (ADP = 168.8, Rank = 153.1)

Per a recent Rotoworld blurb (via The Athletic), it may be third-year ball carrier Gainwell who ultimately receives the torch passed from Miles Sanders, who left for Carolina in free agency.

Truthfully this would not be terribly farfetched, as the Eagles have effectively flung crap at the wall to see what sticks at the position. Imported are oft-injured veterans Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift, the first as an off-season signing and the second as an in-draft trade. Though both can claim superior upside, particularly Penny given his homerun speed and ability to make defenders miss, there is precious little investment on Philadelphia’s part.

With the passing offense functioning as a finely tuned machine, and quarterback Jalen Hurts performing as arguably the best dual-threat signal caller in the league, a combination of floor and consistency is all that’s really needed in the backfield. Gainwell has decent enough size, familiarity with the system, and can function both in the air and on the ground. Going after Penny and well after Swift, usurping either or both should lead to a dramatic increase in dynasty and fantasy value.

Sell: D’Andre Swift, RB (ADP = 81.5, Rank = 64.3)

I don’t have anything inherently against Swift, but that is apparently more than can be said for the Detroit Lions coaching staff and front office. Seemingly frustrated with a lack of consistency, they selected rookie Jahmyr Gibbs with first-round draft capital, and then shipped Swift away to Philadelphia shortly thereafter. On the surface, it seems a bit odd given Gibbs’ size and projected usage are not terribly dissimilar to that of Swift, but clearly the Lions didn’t see a long-term fit.

Though three years isn’t a huge sample size, Detroit tried to increase Swift’s usage between his rookie and sophomore years (47% snaps played to 68% snaps played), but this led to lessened efficiency and five missed contests. In 2022 the Lions again scaled his work back, rendering Swift’s fantasy viability as inexorably linked to his receiving usage (see 2022 stats below as an example).

Given Gainwell’s (and even Boston Scott if he makes the roster) usage in the passing game, Swift’s role is somewhat unclear. However he will need robust usage if ~55% of his points are going to come through the air, as his rushing scores are likely to take a hit with Hurts in town. It’s not impossible, but caution should be exercised on a player one team has already given up on, especially considering he still holds reasonable seventh-round (by ADP) draft capital.

Hold: DeVonta Smith, WR (ADP = 18.8, Rank = 14.6)

Having a teammate like AJ Brown tends to cast a bit of a shadow, potentially masking the skills of others. And while Smith is hardly hiding as a mid-second-round pick, his stature could be even higher if not for his elite teammate. While during their first season together in 2022, it was Brown who won the fantasy battle as the PPR WR5, Smith still finished as the WR9, 47.0 PPR points behind his teammate.

All told Smith bested Brown in seven contests in 2022, and showed a similarly elite ceiling with two games of >30 points. His floor was a bit lower with five contests of 10 or fewer points, but more often than not he was getting you points in the high teens or better. Given a year less of experience and an additional 1.3 years of youth, it’s not unreasonable to assert the tables could turn in 2023. Though I’m not suggesting it will happen, Smith already outplayed his 2023 ADP as the WR12 last year – additional improvement should see him solidly within the top 12 players.

Washington Commanders

Buy: Jahan Dotson, WR (ADP = 62.7, Rank = 54.4)

Dotson was a screaming buy even before teammate Terry McLaurin’s preseason injury (presumed to be turf toe at the time of this writing). Though his ADP is lower, he compares favorably to the top rookie receivers from the 2022 class.

It’s true Dotson’s touchdown rate might not be sustainable, but he was also receiving some of the league worst quarterback play, as the Commanders had the ninth-fewest receptions and 12th-fewest receiving yards, along with the tenth-worst completion percentage. So even if the scores drop off, hopefully his efficiency metrics will catch up in terms of catch percentage and YPR.

While Dotson shouldn’t be spoken of like Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, they are both top-eight dynasty receivers while the former Nittany Lion is the WR32. Continuing, Drake London is the WR14 and Christian Watson is the WR19. In comparing cost to upside, Dotson possesses the best combination, and a strong start to the season is likely to dramatically increase his value.

Sell: Antonio Gibson, RB (ADP = 112.2, Rank = 107.4)

Gibson isn’t a surefire sell by any stretch (Washington is a team devoid of a great sell candidate), but the fact is he’s on the decline as a dynasty asset. There remains some hope due to the arrival of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, but while I’m sensitive to external factors I don’t anticipate them resulting in massive paradigm shifts. The optimism would be he could function similar to how Jerick McKinnon was deployed on the Chiefs, but it’s important to remember that the veteran was playing with the best quarterback in the game in Patrick Mahomes, and had an unsustainable nine scores through the air.

From a fantasy perspective, 2022 yielded Gibson’s worst finish (PPR RB28) as well as his least efficient rushing output (3.7 YPC). His cost is somewhat insulated as the RB39 by ADP, but this could potentially be because owners are seeing the writing on the wall.

As shown in his bucketed weekly finishes from 2020 through 2022, Gibson’s upside completely vanished in 2022, with zero top-5 finishes and only two RB1 finishes overall. The shift in color spectrum certainly isn’t reflective of a player receiving enough aerial targets to offset a lack of work in the red zone. With multiple reasons for negativity, and positivity largely confined to hopes and prayers, I’d sell before a second straight down season becomes another drop in value.

Hold: Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP = 48.5, Rank = 46.6)

I’m one of the bigger McLaurin stans here, so it comes as little surprise that I’m in favor of hanging onto the veteran. And while it’s true he hasn’t quite had the same highs as the other principals in his draft class, he’s more than held his own.

Brown received average to above-average play from Ryan Tannehill before experiencing the 2022 Jalen Hurts explosion. DK Metcalf had a pre-Denver Russell Wilson slinging him the rock before catching passes from a revitalized Geno Smith. And McLaurin, well… let’s check out the list: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick (all six attempts) and Carson Wentz.

The hope is Sam Howell can parlay his single 2022 start and off-season command of the QB1 position into something representing actual quarterback play. If that happens, perhaps McLaurin can add to the paltry 21 scores he’s had across four years, to couple with his 1,000+ yard seasonal average. And if that miracle does manage to occur, at this time next year perhaps he’ll leap from his current status as the WR22 by ADP to closer to where Metcalf (WR15) and Brown (WR4) reside. Until that time, he remains as ever a sensible hold with immense unrealized potential.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

Conference	Team	Buy			Sell			Hold
		Name	ADP	Rank	Name	ADP	Rank	Name	ADP	Rank
NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	Deuce Vaughn	213.7	238.1	Malik Davis	190.8	243.6	Michael Gallup	186.7	128.0
	New York Giants	Jalin Hyatt	140.2	160.4	Darren Waller	81.8	102.8	Saquon Barkley	18.0	17.1
	Philadelphia Eagles	Kenneth Gainwell	168.8	153.1	D’Andre Swift	81.5	64.3	DeVonta Smith	18.8	14.6
	Washington Commanders	Jahan Dotson	62.7	54.4	Antonio Gibson	112.2	107.4	Terry McLaurin	48.5	46.6

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC East