Dynasty Decision: Kyle Pitts
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
He was the greatest tight-end prospect ever to come out in the draft and had one of the greatest rookie seasons from a tight end ever. It was inevitable that, at some point, Pitts would disappoint. However, a combination of injuries, horrific quarterback play, and a run-first offense have rubbed off the shine, and his dynasty value started to fall.
So is now the perfect opportunity to buy the dip, or was he overhyped to begin with?
Previous Performance
After all the hype Pitts saw before he’d even stepped on the field as a rookie, the start of his rookie season started as a disappointment. In his first four games, he only broke double-digit points once. However, in week five, he played in London against the Jets and broke out in a big way to the tune of 26.9 points. From that point until the end of the fantasy season, he was the TE4 in points, averaging 11.7 points per game – all the while not scoring another touchdown after that week five performance.
With some touchdown regression, he should have been a fantasy superstar for many years. However, 2022 was not a season to write home about for Pitts. He finished as the TE30, averaging only 7.6 points per game before his season ended in week 11 with an MCL sprain. The advanced numbers were still incredible. He was second in target share at 27.1%, first in targets per route at 28%, eighth in yards per route run at 1.7, first in aDOT at 13.8, and first in air yard market share at 35.2%. The issue was that the Falcons were historically run-heavy, averaging only 24.4 pass attempts per game, nine fewer than the NFL average at 33.4. If those pass attempt numbers were closer to the NFL average, it would have been a very different season for Pitts when he was on the field.
Situation and Usage
As the advanced numbers show above, Pitts is a significant piece of the Falcons’ offense, but he couldn’t get off the ground due to the low passing volume. Marcus Mariota started the first 13 games last season and every game in which Pitts played. During those games, he averaged 23.1 pass attempts per game. However, when Desmond Ridder replaced him, we saw an uptick in passing volume to 28.3 per game. That is still a below-average passing volume, but it is more aligned with the rest of the NFL than the historical outlier the offense was under Mariota. In 2023, if the Ridder-led offense is closer to the NFL average, it is only a good thing for Pitts.
Many teams throughout recent years have talked about positionless offenses where players can line up all over the field. It is a nice off-season nugget but rarely shows up in the season other than the occasional time a running back may line up as a receiver. However, the Falcons are the rare offense that could genuinely be positionless. Drake London is a big-bodied outside receiver with the route-running ability to line up in the slot. Bijan Robinson would likely have been a day-two pick in the NFL Draft if he were just a slot receiver. Cordarrelle Patterson is a wide receiver turned running back turned wide receiver again. This means that Pitts is not used like the majority of tight ends in the league. He lines up all over the field and finds favorable matchups. Last year, he lined up inline 166 times, in the slot 142 times, and out wide 115 times.
Injuries
Pitts has been relatively healthy throughout his career outside of the MCL sprain that cost him five games to end the season last year. Nothing should concern you about his health moving forward other than an NFL season’s general wear and tear.
Contract
Pitts is entering the third year of his rookie contract and is under contract for at least the 2024 season. The Falcons will then have the choice to exercise his fifth-year option for the 2025 season. As Pitts has already made one Pro Bowl, that option will come north of the $10.5m mark and likely find itself closer to the $12m mark. That number would be a top-ten number at the position while he is still on his supposed cheap rookie contract. What is realistic is that the Falcons look to tie Pitts up long-term next off-season, presuming he has a competent year this year.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE3 in August ADP and 38th overall. The trade analyzer has him worth almost exactly two random 2024 firsts in a 1QB league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
When looking at dynasty players, I firmly believe in valuing players, not situations. Situations can change almost instantly, whereas a player’s talent lasts much longer. There are no concerns about Pitts’s talent and his ability to be productive in the NFL. The only concern is how much volume is available in the Falcon’s offense and how the quarterback play develops. In 12 months, the Falcons could find themselves with a new quarterback under center in a pass-first offense. Could Kyler Murray be a trade target if Ridder disappoints and the Cardinals select a rookie in the draft? The value of Pitts would skyrocket if that happened.
Arthur Smith has proven himself to be an effective and inventive play-caller who gets the best out of the hand he has been dealt. The Falcons will likely pass the ball more often this year and get closer to the median pass attempts per game for the league. With that, Pitts could be an absolute steal at his current cost. He has overall TE1 upside and is only 22 years old! Pitts can potentially be valued as the dynasty TE1 for the next ten years! No matter the situation, he is a great target to acquire. This could be the final opportunity to acquire before the price becomes untenable. If you can pivot off a second or third-tier tight end like Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson, or George Kittle, plus a small asset to acquire Pitts, it could have good results in the short term and incredible results in the long term!
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