Dynasty League Football


Optimisery: The Case For and Against Lamar Jackson in Baltimore

We consider both sides of Lamar Jackson’s dynasty value and future.

Lamar Jackson

In this series, Jeremy Schwob and John Di Bari present the optimistic and pessimistic sides to significant changes in the dynasty landscape. Consider both sides, as the goal is to find somewhere in between.

The old adage that there are two sides to every coin could never be more true than when circumstances change for a player. That is especially true when surprising information is thrust upon us. Psychological difficulty and distress can be encountered when individuals hold rigid views that are strictly one-sided (i.e., split) or alternate drastically from one to the other.

A therapeutic concept called integration is a healthier structure for holding both sides together and tolerating the benefits and flaws simultaneously. Relationally, this could involve being frustrated or angry with them while at the same time being able to maintain that you care about them. Such emotional difficulties can parallel our view of players on dynasty rosters amidst changing circumstances.

The goal of this series is not to have you pick a side or a winner of the argument. Rather, it is to consider both sides and not select one entirely in the absence of the other.

This series has traditionally focused on free agents signing with new teams. However, given the off-season drama surrounding Lamar Jackson, we felt it was worth looking into Jackson's re-signing with the Baltimore Ravens and the potential positives and negatives for fantasy football going forward.

Do we see Jackson return to the fantasy monster we saw in 2019, where he amassed 43 total touchdowns as the top fantasy point producer? Or, do we see the Jackson we've seen over the last two seasons, where he failed to play more than 12 games and finished outside of the top 12 at the position?


The 2019 season brought us a true breakout performance by the NFL's MVP, as Jackson scored 415.68 fantasy points, gathered through his 3,127 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns, paired with his 1,206 yards and seven more touchdowns on the ground. In the three seasons since, he has failed to come close to those figures. Largely, this is due to missed games due to injury and a conservative rush-oriented scheme with lackluster passing weapons within the offense.

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Optimisery: The Case For and Against Lamar Jackson in Baltimore
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Steven Munger
1 month ago

There are certainly many reasons that Jackson may not return to 2019-level fantasy production, several of which John Di Bari discusses. However, it is important to note a few things regarding Jackson’s injuries the last two seasons. First, neither of his major injuries came on rushing plays…in both cases, he was in the pocket. Second, evidence does not support running QBs being at greater risk of injury than pocket passers (and there is likely a significant difference in risk for those who seek contact, like Cam Newton, and those that look to avoid it, like Jackson). And third, I am always surprised that “injury history” is called out so easily for Jackson, while QBs like Joe Burrow have a worse one (ACL tear that cost him most of a season, an MCL sprain that would have cost multiple games if it didn’t happen in the Super Bowl, and this latest calf strain that will likely wipe out this preseason). Calling out Jackson’s recent injuries as somehow unique amongst elite QBs or more significant when it comes to calculating future risk does not seem well-supported by the facts.

John Haba
Reply to  Steven Munger
1 month ago

Agree with this comment 100%. I am new to DLF, and to be honest, I find much of the “analysis” on the site not well supported by facts. There are a lot of “vibes” and narratives thrown around without numbers or intelligent analysis to back them up.

The point about “less running means fewer fantasy points” is also a bit simplistic and strange as 2019 showed Jackson has 40 passing TD potential, and throwing for 3000+ yards in a run-heavy offense shows he can potentially put up QB1 numbers passing-wise if given the right environment (scheme and weaponry). Monken was brought in to help create that environment. I guess the point was to be all negative in that section, but I echo that some assertions don’t seem to be well-supported by facts.

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