Dynasty Decision: Calvin Ridley
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Calvin Ridley, WR JAC
Few players have seen the fall from grace in recent years only to see their value consistently crawl back. After an incredible 2020 season, Ridley battled some struggles the following season before being suspended for the entire 2022 season. Now cleared to play again and on a new team, will he bounce straight back to being an elite fantasy producer, or as he approaches age 30, will we see him struggle to bounce back to the elite production?
Previous Performance
Entering the league as an older prospect, Ridley hit the ground running as a fantasy-relevant player, finishing as the WR22 his rookie year, averaging 12.8 points per game. He followed that up with another impressive season, averaging 15.15 points per game but only finishing as the WR27 due to missing three games. After that sophomore season, Julio Jones was traded, which opened the door for a spike in volume for the now third-year receiver.
He turned that volume into a massive breakout campaign, finishing as the overall WR5 despite missing a game. At this point, Ridley seemed poised for future fantasy stardom. However, the 2021 season was not anything to write home about. He battled a foot injury during the season’s start and underwhelmed before taking a break from the game to focus on his mental health. During this time, he gambled on NFL games, leading to his suspension until this off-season.
Situation and Usage
Looking at the situation for Ridley will require a large amount of projection. The Falcons traded him to the Jaguars, and he now finds himself in a new home with a new quarterback to catch passes from. Luckily, that quarterback is an elite player, Trevor Lawrence, who is poised to make the leap this season into the conversation of one of the best players in the league.
The fit between Ridley and Lawrence should be seamless. Ridley thrives in the intermediate areas of the field while also being able to go deep and take the top off the defense. In his third year, Lawrence is already one of the best passers in the intermediate areas of the field. Where Lawrence needs to take a step forward is going deep. He was 18th last year in the percentage of attempts of 20 yards or more downfield at 11.6%, but he was 32nd in yards per attempt at 9.8%. In Ridley’s last entire season, he was second in the league in the number of targets 20+ yards downfield behind only Tyreek Hill. He secured an impressive 44.4% of those targets for a mindblowing 13.2 yards per target.
Ridley will step into Jacksonville as the clear number one receiver. While complementing what Lawrence does well, he will also bring more to the Jacksonville receiving room, allowing Lawrence to take the next step.
Injuries
Injuries are a slight concern, given Ridley has missed time for ankle/foot and abdominal issues throughout his career while also playing through a broken foot during the 2021 season. However, having not played an NFL game for over 18 months, you would hope that Ridley will be the healthiest he has been in his entire career. There may be a lack of sharpness as he reaclimatises to the NFL, having not played for a long time, but I don’t expect it to be a significant issue moving forward.
Contract
Contractually, Ridley is in a fascinating position. He is about to be 29, but given he was an older prospect coming out and the suspension, he is still playing on his fifth-year option. Heading into free agency this year will be a complex negotiation as he will be approaching the age cliff but will want to get his one big payday from the league. To complicate the situation, the draft capital the Jaguars will owe the Falcons depends on whether Ridley signs a long-term extension with the Jaguars, which will potentially play a part in any extension. The expectation would be that unless Ridley greatly disappoints this year, the Jaguars will sign him to a three- or four-year deal with an out after the second year.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR27 in June ADP and a 5oth overall. The trade analyzer has him worth a random first-round pick in a 1QB league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Calvin Ridley is a tough one; I have been shouting from the rooftops that he was undervalued for the last 12 months and would be an ascending asset in raw dynasty value. That part is absolutely true, as you can see by his climb back up in ADP. The tricky part is establishing what you should be doing with him moving forward.
As I mentioned, he is soon 29, and getting excited about rostering a 29-year-old free agent is hard. However, in 2023, his production will likely outweigh his current cost. There is still some lingering hangover from the suspension, and his dynasty value is lower than it should have been had he not missed the last 18 months.
Given this hangover, Ridley still makes for a great buy, whatever the situation of your roster. However, you need to be conscious of the next step. He will likely rebound in dynasty value when he hits the field and starts producing. Unless you’re a bona fide contender, that is where I’d be looking to sell for peak value. If you can sell for a 2024 first plus, that is the peak his value will ever get to, and it will allow you to recycle the asset before he ages out and becomes a declining asset once again.
- Dynasty Decision: Brandon Aiyuk - March 21, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Kenneth Walker - March 14, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: DJ Moore - March 7, 2025
