2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson

Aaron St Denis Posted On July 20, 2023

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Green Bay Packers!

Riser: Christian Watson, WR

The Packers are a team in the midst of a full youth movement. Aaron Rodgers has moved on to New York and the time of Jordan Love is upon us, for better or worse.

No Green Bay player has the potential to increase their fantasy stock more in 2023 than Watson. Despite limited playing time due to injury in 2022, he posted numbers when he did play that led many to believe he is a future star in the league.

Current Market Value

Right now, Watson is the WR20 and 42.50 overall in June’s DLF ADP.

As you can see, he finds himself in the low-end WR2 range in June ADP and is with some serious competition on this list. His rank at WR20 is a combination of the flashes of talent he showed when healthy and the belief that Green Bay has little option but to treat him as the team’s alpha WR1. This time last year, Watson found himself as WR41, showing a doubling of cost based on his limited 2022 production alone.

With a solid 2023 campaign, his value could once again double by this time next season. Watson is someone I will be targeting at WR20 as that price tag feels closer to his floor than his ceiling. Many managers have seen the meteoric rises of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase and are scooping up young receivers to the point they are impossible to find on the open market. Acquire him now before his official breakout drives his ADP through the roof.

Future Outlook

The Packers are a team full of uncertainty, and with that uncertainty looming large at both quarterback and wide receiver, it is puzzling to see such a manageable cost for Watson with essentially no competition for targets. As you can see below, Watson played in only nine games as a rookie but managed to haul in nine touchdowns. Two were rushing touchdowns and seven were receiving. In those nine games, he totaled 611 receiving yards as well as 80 rushing yards.

Two things are evident here. One: Watson is a very talented receiver who could develop his physical attributes into the skills required to be a high-end receiver, but last year’s touchdown rate is simply unsustainable. Two: Watson is a very capable player, but he is going to have to develop an all-around game. Fantasy managers depending on him scoring a touchdown in every game are going to find themselves disappointed.

As I said before, he has all the tools if he can put them together, but he will have to be more consistent than he was last year when he saw a four-game hot streak that accounted for the majority of his season-long production. Even after stating all of the downside with Watson, his cost makes him a solid investment in dynasty leagues with his ceiling being elite.

As you can see above, Watson’s rise over the past year has been impressive despite there being few players in the league that are more polarizing. Going into 2022 he was a late-round dart throw and now going into 2023 he is a high-priced asset you will need to spend a mid-round pick on, despite the fact he has more upside than most of the receivers in his ADP range.

Watson’s rookie season arc mirrors that of Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore. A brief productive flash during his rookie season led to an inflated ADP before an eventual crash down to earth, it remains to be seen if Watson will suffer the same fate or not.

Overall, Watson’s rookie numbers were impressive. We see a four-game tear in which he scored all seven of his receiving touchdowns and one of his two rushing touchdowns. These games also accounted for the only times he was able to eclipse 100 yards receiving outside of the season finale against Detroit’s porous pass defense. Whether he was opportunistic against bad competition or he is a legit stud is the question that remains to be answered.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to look at possible Watson trades.

Never have I seen such a wide variety of trades for a single player. This truly illustrates just how polarizing Watson is.

In trade one, we see Watson and Michael Pittman for AJ Brown essentially. Tthere are some picks and lower players thrown in but not that really warrant consideration. Second-round picks next year, and first-round picks the year after, none really sway the deal.

Deal two is a manager giving away Watson for the 1.11 in a rookie draft. This one is mind-boggling and is clearly a manager who is out on Watson. I’m not a massive believer, but even in a superflex league, I would prefer Watson to the likes of Zach Charbonnet or Sam LaPorta.

Trade three swings back the opposite way, where we see a manager overpay to acquire Watson, sending away budding superstar Jahan Dotson. In no scenario would I make this trade, unless I was getting Dotson that is.

The final trade is insane. Even if you believe in Christian Watson, giving away a current top-15 receiver and a first-round pick for Watson and a second-round pick is insane.

These four trades serve to show just how all over the map his value is currently.

Faller: Aaron Jones, RB

I’ve never been in or out on Aaron Jones. He’s never been all that exciting and was just a player I drafted when the price was right. The talent is still there but with his age and this potentially low-scoring offense, his ADP could be in store for a steep dive during the 2023 season.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

The cost for Jones is at a career low, but having said that it could still be substantially lower this time next year. We have seen in the past few years just how quickly a running back can fall off the map. Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott are two examples of once-elite fantasy running backs who have seen multiple years of declining value before ultimately plummeting towards earth at a record pace. This could be the fate that befalls Jones in 2023.

He is yet another example of just how easy it is to draft a win-now team in a dynasty startup. For those teams who are not built to win now or who are rebuilding, he is a must-sell asset. There should still be ample interest from contenders to acquire him and it could be the last real chance to get out on him. Once week one begins, his value will consistently decline with every game that passes by.

Future Outlook

Jones may have no future outlook past the 2023 season. He is currently 28.6 years old and is teetering as close to the edge of the age cliff as you can be without going over. If you are a contender, ride him while you can, but if you are not in a position to win by the trade deadline, he should be shipped out immediately.

Look up the definition of consistency and you will find a picture of Travis Kelce, but Kelce will be holding a picture of Aaron Jones. Over his career he just produces, and despite missing the occasional game he has played in at least 14 games in each of the past four seasons. While he has shown consistency at the position similar to that of a low-end Ezekiel Elliott, we have seen just how quickly it can all come to an end.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Once again, let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for trade options involving Jones.

Context matters, and since we don’t know the situations of the above teams, I’m going to operate under the assumption that all three teams trading away Jones were doing so as part of a rebuild. It’s simply the only explanation for the trades. Josh Downs, Michael Carter, Treylon Burks, Luke Schoonmaker and Daniel Bellinger were some of these pieces fetched in return for Jones. None held near the value that Jones does outside of Treylon Burks, these were clearly moves intended to sell off an aging player in an attempt to get younger. This should serve to show you that his value has already shown signs of tapering off and the cliff is coming.

As you can see from the DLF Trade Analyzer, these managers are selling too low and are doing so just to get younger for the sake of appearances. While I advocate for selling Jones before the bottom falls out, and I do expect a steep decline in his value, he is still not a player that should be given away for nothing. Wait until an injury happens during the preseason and sell him to a panicked owner in need of a proven back.

Longshot: Jayden Reed, WR

Path to Relevance

Reed’s path to relevance is dependent on Watson and Love.

Reed enters his rookie season as the de facto number two on the depth chart despite having never played in an NFL game, and with Watson as the only player above him, it’s not hard to see a scenario where Reed ends his rookie campaign as one of the top options on the Packers offense. If Watson does not live up to the hype and faceplants in 2023, Reed could be the last man standing.

Case Against Him

The case against him is just as simple as the case for: this offense could be a disaster with Love under center and if the offense fails to produce consistently, Jones and Watson could be the only ones with usable production, especially if Watson turns out to be the real deal.

Verdict

In the end, when you fall on Jayden Reed largely hinges on where you view Christian Watson. If you are all-in on Watson then Reed is someone you are unlikely to target in startup drafts, but if you believe Watson is all sizzle and no steak, then Reed’s Current DLF ADP of WR53 and 119th overall is an easy bet for you to make. I prefer to place my bets on Reed. The cost is far lower, and the upside could be just as high.