Rich Cooling: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained

Earlier this year, we introduced a new series, called Dynasty Rankings Explained, where DLF rankers not only explained their dynasty fantasy football rankings, and included a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you could see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. Now that we are well past the NFL Draft and looking forward to the NFL Season starting, we decided to bring it back, this time focusing on our dynasty rookie rankings.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is than the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 48 dynasty rookies in a Superflex, PPR format. For a closer look at all our rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings and catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY ROOKIE RANKINGS: RICH COOLING

I have a very clear and defined process that I’ve fine-tuned over the past few years regarding rookie rankings. My final ranking comprises two inputs: my rookie model and my film grade. I compile my film grade before the NFL draft by watching at least four games of every prospect, although I ideally strive for six. This film grade is ranked 1 to 100. The rookie Model is a percentile score from 1 to 100, which considers some critical metrics for each position but also has a draft pick grading within the model. The model makes up 66% of the final grade, with the film grade weighing 33%.

I then rank purely based on the number that is produced. However, that differs from the order in which I will draft players. As you will see when I start breaking down each round, if I have a player ranked at 10, but his ADP is in the 20s, I firmly believe it is critical to play the board and move back to not give up value and “reach” for a player versus ADP even though you may have them ranked there.

Rookies 1 - 12

As you can see, the top four picks I’m perfectly in line with the consensus. I have the top three prospects in their tier and could argue for taking each one at 1.01. CJ Stroud falls in at four in a distinct tier of his own. I like the player and the talent, but I have some concerns about his processing ability, and because of that, he is a tier below.

At pick five, I differ from the consensus. Jordan Addison has been my wide receiver since January, and the draft didn’t change that. He received a higher film grade than Jaxon Smith-Njigba and was 3.8% higher in my rookie model. I have Smith-Njigba, Addison, and Gibbs all in the same tier and would be happy to trade back from the fifth pick to the seventh pick and take the last of the three available. I like Gibbs as a prospect but have concerns about his workload and how his size could affect the volume of touches he sees. This is why I have him below the two receivers, along with the long-term positional value of wide receivers over running backs.

The next tier is a tiny tier with the two remaining first-round receivers. Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston. I have Flowers ever so slightly ahead of Johnston, off the back of a better model performance. I also have some concerns about Johnston’s athleticism translating to the NFL in a way that is fantasy relevant. He is a great athlete after the catch, but that would limit his aDOT and mean he is seeing a higher volume of low-value touches rather than the red zone and downfield looks that carry higher fantasy production.

After those top nine, there is an extended tier break. At this point in the draft, I would be delighted to turn 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12 into any 2024 1st round pick. At ten, I have Jayden Reed. That may be a massive reach at this point, which versus ADP it is. However, I wouldn’t ever draft Reed at ten. I would instead move back and scoop him up in the middle of the second round. I was a big believer in Reed’s talent prior to the draft, but the higher-than-expected draft capital shot him up my rankings. There is a real scenario where he could be the target leader in Green Bay as a rookie.

Closing out the first round, I have Zach Charbonnet at 11. I like the player, but I am concerned he may be in a 50/50 split role for the foreseeable future. Then Will Levis at 12. I am not a Levis believer, and he scored lowly in my film grade, but at this point in the draft, the chance of getting a starting quarterback in a Superflex draft is too valuable to pass up.

Rookies 13 - 24

To start the second round, it is the continuation of the tier that started with Jayden Reed. I then have two more of my favorite receivers in the draft, Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims, who has been underrated throughout the entire process as prospects. The final player in this tier is Dalton Kincaid. This ranking says more about how I view rookie tight ends rather than Kincaid specifically. He is an elite prospect, but I can’t spend significant capital on a position where the immediate returns are traditionally so poor. I would instead take a flyer on a wide receiver or a running back. If you require a tight end, I would trade the pick for a proven commodity or pay for an elite option rather than drafting a rookie and hoping for the best.

The rest of the second round is again one large tier for me. It begins with a running back with a vast range of outcomes in Devon Achane. He is a lightning player who can score from anywhere but, given his diminutive stature, may struggle to command a significant workload. Josh Downs and Jonathan Mingo, I’m around consensus, and while both have upsides, they equally have concerns that mean they are lottery tickets in the second round.

Returning to my earlier comments about rookie tight ends, LaPorta and Mayer fall into this tier as the back end of the second-round prospects, and I am three and four spots below consensus, respectively. I like them as prospects, but I can’t justify an early second-round pick on either player. I round out the rest with some genuine lottery tickets. Tank Dell, Jalin Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman. I am higher than the consensus on all three and think they all have potential issues. Mainly size for Dell and Hyatt and route running for Tillman. They all can completely blow up and be incredible values if they reach the high end of their potential. Once you get to the middle of the second round in rookie drafts, I am always shooting for potential upside, and if any of these three receivers hit, they have massive potential.

You will notice I should have mentioned Kendre Miller, who is seven spots lower than the consensus. I like the player, and there is a scenario where he is relevant in year one with an Alvin Kamara suspension looming. However, his profile has definite knocks that are potentially being overlooked. He finished as a 69th-percentile prospect in my model. The biggest knocks on him came from his lack of receiving market share in college, which is a great predictor of receiving success in the NFL. I am concerned that the pending Alvin Kamara suspension has buoyed his value with little projection beyond the first half of the 2023 season.

Rookies 25 - 36

Hooker down to Kraft is my next tier. I’m lower than the consensus on the top three, but not significantly. The Hooker value is the most prominent question mark for me. While the upside is there as a potential starting quarterback in a Superflex league. I need help to see a scenario where at 25, coming off an ACL injury, he does anything but decline in value over the next 12 months. Where I differ significantly compared to the consensus is Tucker Kraft, as I am seven spots higher. I have Kraft as my highest-ranked Green Bay tight end, ahead of Luke Musgrave, who was drafted ahead of him. Kraft was an elite producer in college and flashed enough to warrant a strong film grade. He was my Tight End four before the draft, and his landing spot and draft capital cemented that.

The rest of the third round is littered with players relying on injuries or a training camp breakout to find some fantasy relevancy. Wilson and Scott both have profiles that could make some noise, although it may end up being 2024 before they can each carve out enough playing time to start to gain any production. The running backs are all average prospects based on evaluation who landed in congested backfields. If there are injuries or a surprise cut, they could quickly boom in value, but as things stand, they could end up as roster cloggers. Charlie Jones is a player I love, and his landing spot is obvious to see what he could become. Jones will likely spend a year acclimatizing to the NFL, where he will then step in to replace Tyler Boyd as the slot option in a high-powered Bengals offense for the next three to four seasons.

Rookies 37 - 48

Rounding out the final round, I am always looking for that lottery ticket with a chance of hitting. Players in this range are unlikely to see relevancy and are likely to be roster cloggers. Therefore I like leaning towards players who I will find out their valuation sooner rather than later. Players like Evan Hull, Eric Gray, and Kayshon Boutte will likely show us if they have any fantasy relevancy by the end of training camp. They’re worth holding if they’ve carved out a role as a critical backup or fringe starter. If they’re on the roster bubble, we can move on from them. With players like Luke Schoonmaker, Stetson Bennett, or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, they are much more likely to show nothing this year and therefore need to be held into 2024 and enter that roster clogger territory.