We are now less than a month away from the first preseason game and having football in our lives again. It also means Twitter (despite my personal rate limit being exceeded several times) is heating up. Below are a few of the tweets that caught our dynasty brain’s attention.
Saquon Barking Up the Wrong Tree
585 is light work for SaQuads. 💪
— NFL (@NFL) June 29, 2023
For Saquon Barkley‘s dynasty managers, it’s nice to see him getting work in despite a contract dispute with the Giants. The negotiations have been well documented this off-season with Barkley looking to something beyond the security of the one-year franchise tag. The Giants, like every other franchise, are refusing to commit long-term money for a running back, even one as good as Barkley. How good? That’s up for debate.
His skill is not up for debate – he’s coming off his second Pro Bowl selection after rushing for more than 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns (he added 338 receiving yards too). But his durability, especially as he gets older, is in doubt. 2022 was his first season he looked like the old Saquon Barkley since tearing his ACL in 2020. 2021 was an uphill climb where he struggled to get back on track. He did that in 2022 but those were two prime years in the already short career of an NFL running back. Between that and the contract dispute, it’s understandable if managers are considering a change.
Dynasty Impact: Don’t be surprised if Barkley is moved in your dynasty league. Even removing the injury and contract concerns, he is entering his age-26 season with at least one torn ACL on his resume. He’s the perfect candidate for a dynasty team that is in win-now mode and willing to give up rookie picks and young players to do it. You can check out what he’s been traded for recently using the DLF Trade Finder. At first glance, the offers don’t look too appetizing, especially considering he’s our fifth-ranked running back. If your dynasty team is not ready to win a championship this year and Barkley is on your team, the smart move would be to move him now for picks and/or multiple young players to add to your depth.
Osborn to be Wild
when KJ Osborn is out-targeting you after Week 12 https://t.co/526dCkqVhf
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) July 4, 2023
No one doubts the Vikings needed to add a fresh set of legs to the offense after moving on from Adam Thielen and (eventually) Dalvin Cook. They did so in the form of first-round pick Jordan Addison, making him the fourth receiver off the board (and the fourth in a row between picks 20-23). Addison torched the college ranks with 100 receptions and nearly 1,600 yards in his sophomore year. He transferred to USC, where his stats weren’t nearly as prolific but also didn’t affect his status as a future first-round pick. He will be a contributor to the offense.
But until then, KJ Osborn will silently work as the third receiver, at a minimum, and possibly the starter if a current, nagging injury that is keeping Addison off the field doesn’t resolve itself soon. And that isn’t a bad thing! Osborn has two seasons of experience playing alongside Justin Jefferson and a leg up over Addison is playing in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. If you dig a little, you’ll see that Osborn is worth much more than it appears.
Dynasty Impact: KJ Osborn represents one of the more extreme disconnects between his perceived dynasty value and what he’s done. In each of the last two seasons, he’s totaled at least 50 receptions, 650 yards, and five touchdowns. He finished in the top 50 of all fantasy receivers in both yet this is where his dynasty value currently stands.
At first glance, it might seem that the addition of Addison is what’s keeping Osborn’s ADP so low. But in each of the last two seasons, Osborn statistically finished as the third receiver as Jefferson and Thielen operated as the starters. So even if you seamlessly replaced Thielen’s production with Addison (which isn’t a guarantee), Osborn should still be able to replicate what he’s done. There’s the bonus that Osborn holds off Addison due to the latter’s injury and lack of playing time to start his career. Either way, treat Osborn as the WR3/4 he is rather than one ranked outside the top 75.
Nico Collins "appeared to be the favorite target" for C.J. Stroud during spring work for the #Texans. Collins on new OC Bobby Slowik's offense: "He wants that dog. He’s going to bring that dog up out of you." https://t.co/C4j53bGkA8
— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) July 6, 2023
For someone who is entering just his third season in the NFL, it seems like we’ve been waiting for the Nico Collins breakout much longer. A third-round pick in 2021, he admittedly hasn’t been put in the best situation. Catching balls from the likes of Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills throughout his career, Collins has been a middling dynasty asset. He totaled 33 receptions for 446 yards his rookie season and nearly duplicated those stats last year with 37 receptions for 481 yards. He has yet to finish inside the top-75 of fantasy receivers in either year.
But hope springs eternal as Collins enters his third season with a new (and hopefully improved) quarterback situation and a wide-open (pun intended) receiver room. And if the tweet above is a harbinger of things to come, he would be a screaming value.
Dynasty Impact: Looking at the dynasty ADP of the Texans’ receiver room, none of the options stick out.
Collins, the only Texan who caught a pass last year in Houston, is slightly ahead of the others and the tweet above should move him a little higher. At the moment, while his cost is still relatively low, it’s not a bad idea to target him for your dynasty roster. Granted, don’t expect WR1 or even WR2 production for your team. But for deeper rosters, the price tag of a late second or early third-round rookie pick isn’t prohibitive. Put it this way – would you rather roll with a third-year veteran with a high-ceiling quarterback and little competition or take a chance on a rookie receiver who might not even start this year, if at all?
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