2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Denver Broncos

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Denver Broncos!

RISER: Marvin Mims, WR

It’s no secret that the Broncos are not my favorite team for dynasty fantasy football purposes. I tore them apart in my AFC West outlook article, where I had little nice to say about their current roster. Pretty much every one of their other players could’ve made the fallers section, but Mims stood out as severely underpriced.

Current Market Value

Right now, Mims is the WR49 and 110.17 overall in June’s DLF ADP.

Interestingly, he comes in one spot ahead of teammate Courtland Sutton but behind older receivers like Mike Evans and Tyler Lockett and the highlighted fellow second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo. I wanted to point out Mingo expressly as a comparison for Mims, so let’s look at their respective collegiate receiving statistics.

Jonathan Mingo’s college stats:

Marvin Mims’ college stats:

As you can see, the two players aren’t comparable production-wise whatsoever. Mims has a better 2022 performance and two other seasons superior to any of Mingo’s seasons. Both players played in a Power 5 conference, although Mims managed to stay healthier throughout his college career and declared early for the NFL Draft. I rank Mims as the WR5 in this rookie class, behind only the four first-round wide receivers.

I have Mims at WR39 and 90th overall in 1QB startup rankings, significantly higher than his ADP. It’s crucial to note that DLF’s wide receiver rankings side with the ADP data, as Mims comes in at WR52. However, given Mims’s strong college production and draft capital, I don’t mind being ahead of the curve on him.

Future Outlook

The Broncos were an abject disaster in 2022, but new head coach Sean Payton should help them improve. I believe Payton would’ve overhauled the roster far more this off-season if he weren’t limited by some of the nightmare contracts he inherited from the old regime, most notably Sutton and Russell Wilson. The Broncos had limited draft capital in this year’s NFL Draft but chose to use their highest available selection on Mims.

I extensively covered the Broncos’ draft in my AFC West NFL Draft winners and losers article, focusing on Jerry Jeudy and Sutton as losers after the Mims pick. I discussed some similar points about Mims in that piece, specifically how the Broncos would likely need to trade Sutton or Jeudy in the near future. Unfortunately, the Broncos still haven’t moved either player, but they can easily trade or release Sutton after 2023, leaving a starting spot open for Mims. When that happens, Mims will gain value, especially compared to his current price.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to examine possible trades including Mims.

This first trade is an easy smash accept to acquire Mims. Nico Collins is a fine player, but he’s had two mediocre years in the NFL and faces increased target competition from John Metchie, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. There’s no argument for preferring Collins over Mims in dynasty formats.

Similarly, this trade is easily the Mims side. I think Mims is worth more than Dalvin Cook, as Cook still doesn’t have an NFL team and is almost 28 years old. Considering Mims’s value in trades and his ADP price, he seems like a player I’d target in startup drafts, late rookie drafts, or via trade.

FALLER: Courtland Sutton, WR

As I mentioned earlier, I discussed the Broncos’ offense in general as fallers in my AFC West outlook article. In that piece, I noted Sutton as the least valuable player and Javonte Williams as the biggest bust. I did rate Wilson as the most improved player, but that’s only because he was so awful in 2022 that almost any performance would represent an improvement. For this section, though, I chose to discuss Sutton, as Williams’s negative outlook is more based on his injury recovery, whereas Sutton’s is purely due to his poor statistical performance.

Current Market Value

Sutton’s value has taken an interesting journey over the past year.

He steadily rose in value over the 2022 off-season as the hype built around his connection with Wilson. In September’s ADP data, he hit a high-water mark of 40th overall, which seems insane in retrospect. Since then, his value has declined, as Jeudy outperformed him for fantasy football during the 2022 season, while Wilson played extremely poorly throughout the year.

After 2023 rookies entered the ADP data in February, Sutton’s value took another dip, remaining between 91 and 98th overall from February through March. At that price, I had Sutton as one of the biggest sells in all of dynasty, as I doubted the potential trade rumors surrounding him and Jeudy. However, now, Sutton finds himself at an all-time low, WR50 and 111.17 overall. In contrast, DLF’s expert rankings have Sutton closer to his February-May price at WR43 and 95.63 overall. But at either price, I still have Sutton as a screaming sell.

Future Outlook

The main issue with Sutton’s future outlook is his past performance.

Even in his best career season in 2019, he only finished at WR19, which isn’t a massive ceiling considering he faced minimum target competition that year. That Broncos roster had no relevant WR2, with Noah Fant serving as their second receiving target. And even in that scenario, Sutton still failed to be a WR1.

Outside of 2019 and his injury-shortened 2020 campaign, Sutton has been remarkably consistent in his other three NFL seasons. Each year, he finished between WR43 and WR49 and missed minimal or no time due to injuries. Of course, he faced stronger target competition in those seasons, with Emmanuel Sanders serving as the WR1 in his rookie year and Jeudy in 2021 and 2022.

When Jeudy is on the field, Sutton has no fantasy value whatsoever.

As you can see, Sutton scores half the PPR fantasy points with Jeudy in the lineup. His line with Jeudy would pace to 52.7 receptions, 659.6 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns over a 17-game season, which is not fantasy relevant. Even more concerning is that Sutton failed to perform in 2022 with a quarterback upgrade in Wilson and Tim Patrick missing the entire year due to a torn ACL.

The most terrifying split comes from the 2021 season, where Jeudy suffered an ankle injury and missed seven games.

Patrick was healthy that year, and when all three receivers were on the field, Sutton had no relevance. He totaled 40 PPR points in those ten games, which is atrocious. Additionally, Patrick and Sutton had similar yearly totals in 2021, averaging almost identical lines in receptions and yards per game.

Therefore, I have absolutely zero interest in Sutton in 2023 fantasy leagues. He couldn’t perform well last year, with only Jeudy as major target competition. Now, Patrick will return from his torn ACL, tight end Greg Dulcich will enter year two at full health, and Mims will also compete for targets. I won’t be surprised if Sutton’s numbers are as bad as this last split or if he’s mostly removed from the offensive game plan.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Once again, let’s use the DLF Trade Finder for trades with Sutton.

This is the type of dynasty trade I love to make. I have no confidence in Sutton or Khalil Herbert ever to become a high-value asset, so pivoting to a 2025 first-rounder is an ideal move. I’m willing to wait a year if it means significantly upgrading in asset tier.

In this trade, the return is even better. I prefer Mike Evans over Sutton straight up, although Jaylen Warren is better than Jamaal Williams. However, the 1.11 is by far the best piece in this deal, implying that Sutton carries significant trade value in this transaction. I’d gladly take the 1.11 side and try to flip Evans and Williams afterward.

Additionally, Sutton is a sell, according to the DLF Trade Analyzer.

I’d easily accept a 2024 second-round pick for Sutton, let alone with a third-rounder included. If you have Sutton on your roster, I’d suggest exploring the trade market and getting out from under him. And I would suggest avoiding acquiring new shares of Sutton if he’s not currently on your roster.

LONGSHOT: Jarrett Stidham, QB

Path to Relevance

The Broncos signed Stidham to a two-year, $10 million contract with $5 million guaranteed this off-season, a decent-sized sum for a relatively unproven backup quarterback. After serving as the Patriots’ backup during his rookie season, he seemed like their successor for the 2020 season before they signed Cam Newton. Eventually, he even lost the backup job there to Brian Hoyer, and the Patriots traded him to the Raiders for a seventh-sixth-round pick swap before the 2022 season.

Stidham won the backup job to Derek Carr, seeing only spot duty for almost the entire season. However, in the final two weeks, the Raiders benched Carr for contractual reasons, leaving Stidham to make two starts. In the first of those in week 17, he threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns, potentially winning some fantasy championship weeks for anyone who started him as a dart throw.

I’m not saying that Stidham will overtake Wilson on the depth chart, as Wilson’s contract makes that almost impossible. However, I could see him playing well under Payton if Wilson misses any time. In that scenario, he could get a shot at a quarterback competition elsewhere or even just rise in dynasty value for a short period.

Case Against Him

The case against Stidham is straightforward. He’s made only two starts in the NFL, and he only played well in one of those two games. Most likely, he’ll never be anything other than a backup. Plenty of backup quarterbacks like Chase Daniel carve out a great NFL career without ever landing on the dynasty radar.

Verdict

Considering that Stidham wasn’t even drafted in June’s superflex DLF ADP, he’s a relatively good bet at his cost. I’d definitely prefer him to some of the lower-level non-QBs drafted near the end of drafts. The value upside and flip potential of a quarterback at that level are far more significant than roster cloggers like Russell Gage, Allen Robinson, Hayden Hurst, and JaMycal Hasty, just to name a few.