Dynasty Decision: Saquon Barkley
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
Entering the league as a generational prospect, Barkley hit the ground running with a superstar performance in year one. However, he is currently playing on the franchise tag, and there are rumors he may opt out of training camp or potentially miss games without a longer-term contract. When he is on the field, he is a potential difference-maker, but could this be the last window of elite value and represent a window to sell?
Previous Performance
In year one of his NFL career, he was already a league winner, finishing the season as the overall RB1. Since then, it’s been a tough few years for Barkley as he has battled injuries and missed time in 2019, 2020, and 2021 with multiple ankle injuries and a torn ACL.
Finally fully fit again in 2022, he played in 16 games and finished the year as the overall RB5. The benefit of a player like Barkley is that he is a home run waiting to happen. Few players can create something out of nothing, as seen by his career 39.3% breakaway run percentage. He combines this home run threat with impressive receiving work, commanding a 16.6% target share in 2022.
He will always be more boom-bust than other elite backs because he relies on breakaway runs, but the receiving work gives him a solid floor. He finished as a top 24 back in 13 out of the 16 weeks he played. The only players who had more top-24 finishes were Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
Situation and Usage
The situation for Barkley is a tough one. There are some positives and serious negatives, so it is challenging to determine how things settle. After several years of the Giant’s offensive line being more aligned to Swiss cheese than an elite blocking unit, they are significantly improved and need to be in the conversation of best units in the league. They also have a great offensive-minded head coach who has proven he can create fantasy success for below-average players. However, the quarterback situation is still not ideal. While the Giants are committed to Daniel Jones, having paid him elite quarterback money, he is still a question mark who needs elite talent around him to win. Because of this, teams can carry an extra player in the box against the Giants and make life more challenging for Barkley.
The other concern is the lack of outside talent to stretch the field at the receiver position. The Giants spent most of the off-season collecting every veteran journeyman slot receiver they could. Of their top seven receivers, six profile best out of the slot – Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Jamison Crowder. This leaves Darius Slayton as the only natural outside receiver. This has two potential issues for Barkley. One, the lack of outside receiving talent will lead to teams feeling they can add an extra body to the box to stop the run. Two, we will see Barkley flexed out into the slot less often, as they already have talented receivers there. While playing out of the slot isn’t everything for a running back, it does help push their aDOT higher and increase the value of targets they see as they’re more downfield.
Injuries
Since that spectacular rookie campaign, injuries have plagued Barkley. In 2019 he battled an ankle injury. Then in 2020, he suffered a catastrophic knee injury in which he tore his ACL, MCL, and Meniscus. That injury carried into the 2021 season, where he looked off the pace before another ankle sprain led to more missed time. Heading into the 2022 season, it was make or break for him as a dynasty asset, and he saw a clean bill of health. No lingering injury should affect Barkley long-term, as he has recovered from the knee injury. There will still be lingering injury concerns as there is with any running back in the league.
Contract
The contract is a lingering concern for his long-term value. He is currently in a contract dispute with the Giants and is poised to play the 2023 season under the franchise tag. Based on current rumors, that is an issue for the superstar running back who wants a long-term contract. Whether the Giants acquiesce to his request and pay him long-term or keep him on the franchise tag and let him walk at the end of the season, time will tell. It is a serious concern that he lacks long-term security.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB5 in May ADP, and the trade analyzer has him worth between two and three first-round picks in a 1QB league. Recent trades are below; As you can see, there aren’t many simple trades that don’t involve multiple pieces. However, there are a few wild trades, including Barkley and two firsts for the 1.01!
Conclusion
Barkley’s talent is undeniable, and his production when healthy has been league-winning. However, whenever any running back starts on their second contract, you need to be looking at moving on. If you’re an elite contender looking to win the title in 2023, I can understand holding onto Barkley, as he could win you a championship. However, in any other scenario, I would move on, pivot off of him, and buy back years to a younger back. Rhamondre Stevenson, plus another asset, would be my favorite move.
If an injury were to occur this season, the dynasty stock would plummet. A veteran running back coming off an injury as a free agent is unlikely to be a highly prized asset. Yes, if you sell now, you may regret it in the short term if he produces like a superstar. However, selling at peak value is never something you regret long term, and this may be the final window of peak value for the superstar running back.
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