We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
Entering the league as a generational prospect, Barkley hit the ground running with a superstar performance in year one. However, he is currently playing on the franchise tag, and there are rumors he may opt out of training camp or potentially miss games without a longer-term contract. When he is on the field, he is a potential difference-maker, but could this be the last window of elite value and represent a window to sell?
Previous Performance
In year one of his NFL career, he was already a league winner, finishing the season as the overall RB1. Since then, it's been a tough few years for Barkley as he has battled injuries and missed time in 2019, 2020, and 2021 with multiple ankle injuries and a torn ACL.
Finally fully fit again in 2022, he played in 16 games and finished the year as the overall RB5. The benefit of a player like Barkley is that he is a home run waiting to happen. Few players can create something out of nothing, as seen by his career 39.3% breakaway run percentage. He combines this home run threat with impressive receiving work, commanding a 16.6% target share in 2022.
He will always be more boom-bust than other elite backs because he relies on breakaway runs, but the receiving work gives him a solid floor. He finished as a top 24 back in 13 out of the 16 weeks he played. The only players who had more top-24 finishes were Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
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