2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Atlanta Falcons

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Atlanta Falcons.

Riser: Desmond Ridder, QB

Everyone loves to throw shade at Ridder and tell us he will be the downfall of this Falcons offense. Will it actually turn out to be the case? The offense around him looks quite deadly and he was more impressive last year in his limited games than people will give him credit for. I was not the biggest fan of him coming out of college, and I am not going to argue he is guaranteed to be great. However, his current value seems a bit low to me.

His Current ADP

According to DLF’s ADP tool, Ridder is going off the board as the 28th quarterback drafted, 82nd overall in superflex leagues.

There are plenty of risks, which is why he is going this low, but Ridder has an upside that few seem to see. He is currently going behind Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Trey Lance, as well as Mac Jones, and I would rather have him than all four of those players to be quite honest. I currently have him ranked as my 24th-best quarterback in dynasty.

Future Outlook

This article has been quite positive so far on Ridder, make no mistake: he is an extremely risky asset to have in dynasty fantasy football. If he does not play adequate football this year, there is a realistic world where he is replaced by one of the quarterbacks in this upcoming 2024 class.

However, there are reasons to argue for a breakout this coming season. He gets to work with one of the best young cores of skill players in the entire leagu: Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and one of the best offensive lines in all of football.

While he did not play excellent ball last year, he did complete 63.4% of his passes which was above Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Derek Carr. He only threw two scores, but he also threw zero interceptions in his time started. He had a couple of really nice throws, and we saw him and London have a great stretch together with Pitts missing time due to injury.

He is also a quarterback with plenty of rushing upside. Throughout his college career, he averaged just under 44 rushing yards per game. That is a 17-game pace of 748 rushing yards which is an impressive number. That should not be his projection, however, he could easily add 400 yards on the ground with a handful of touchdowns this season and put together a good fantasy football campaign.

Trade Options

Here are some trades I found that involve Ridder on the DLF Trade Finder. Any trade I saw in a one-quarterback league valued him as a third-round rookie pick or maybe less, but these ones pictured are all superflex leagues.

As you can see, Ridder is pretty cheap to acquire in dynasty leagues. He is someone many fantasy players have given up on even though he has only played four games. The odds seem against him but it is fair to at least give him a chance to prove himself for a full season. It may end up really paying off.

Faller: Tyler Allgeier, RB

Allgeier had an impressive rookie campaign with 1,035 rushing yards on just 210 carries. He was not much of a weapon in the passing game, but he was very effective as the lead runner of this offense. He had quite the end to the season, but the Falcons decided they have seen enough of Allgeier as the lead back. They selected Texas Longhorn star running back Bijan Robinson eighth overall in the draft, and with that type of draft capital, they should use him as a workhorse in their offense. Even with Allgeier’s massive dip in value, I still think he is an asset not worth investing in.

Current ADP

According to DLF’s ADP tool, Allgeier is going off the board as the RB46, which ranks just inside the top 160 picks in a super flex league.

You may initially think of that cost as low, but it is still too rich for my blood. In that range, you have some players going who have the potential to be valuable for fantasy right away. Players like Jerick McKinnon, Dalton Schultz, and Trey McBride all have the potential to be good stand-alone fantasy assets but Allgeier is going to need a devastating injury to be relevant. He should be going more around RB50-55 which is the range I have him ranked in.

Future Outlook

The future looks very dull for the fifth-round pick in Allgeier, because not only is Robinson going to replace him, he may not even be the number two running back on the team. Reports have suggested that the Falcons are hoping Cordarrelle Patterson is involved in the passing game as he has been in years past for them, which would push Allgeier to a place where he will barely be any getting touches. There seems to be no role for him in this offense and as a result, he just does not interest me.

Also, Allgeier did have an impressive season but every single running back for the Falcons had an effective season. Every player to carry the ball at least 20 times for Atlanta last season averaged 4.8 yards per attempt or better. The Falcons offensive line ranked first in pretty much every rushing category imaginable. So was Allgeier’s performance that good? We know running back is a very replaceable and fluid position in the NFL, so would it be surprising if Allgeier was not as impressive as his stats may have painted him to be?

Trade Options

Here are the three most recent dynasty trades involving Allgeier. The first one is a superflex, and the other two are single-quarterback leagues.

It is clear from these three trades that you can still get a second-round pick from Allgeier, which is worth cashing out for. He cannot catch and he is the backup or maybe even the third back on the team who will not be relevant without an injury. If you can get a second for Allgeier, take that deal and run.

Long Shot: Cordarrelle Patterson, RB

There is not much to love for fantasy in Atlanta outside of a top few, but there are reasons to be interested in Patterson. He has had a Hall of Fame-level career as a kick returner and he has been one of the most electric players to step onto the NFL field. However, kick returns have never really made him a fantasy-relevant player.

Lately, he has been doing well as a fantasy asset and now this backfield is looking different heading into this season than the past two years. Even with how threatening Robinson may seem, I still see a chance for Patterson to be relevant.

Current ADP

His current ADP is dead in the water. He is being drafted around no-names in dynasty fantasy football.

While Patterson is older and there is no guarantee he is even relevant, that draft spot just seems low. The players going around him do not even have a chance at relevance while Patterson does.

Future Outlook

Why do I think Patterson will be so involved? Firstly, the coaches have said multiple times that they want him to go back to his 2021 role as a pass-catcher. In that season he finished as a top-12 running back in PPR formats. Adding onto that, the NFL is moving more toward a running back-by-committee approach. Given that he was the eighth overall pick, it is unlikely Robinson is going to be treated as anything different than a workhorse running back, but there is a small chance that Patterson could be involved and the Falcons could use him to keep Robinson fresh.

He is quite older and will likely not gain much value even with a good season, but if you are a contending team, I would look to see if you can sneak him from someone else’s roster or maybe even off the waiver wire in your dynasty league.

Trade Options

His ADP reveals this clearly, but Patterson is essentially free in dynasty leagues. You could trade a ham sandwich for him in dynasty and that is what is the smart thing to do. Do not pay anything more than a third-round rookie pick, but based on a couple of deals I see done with him, you can get him for less than that. I also like the idea of using him as a throw-in to a bigger deal, which as mentioned earlier with Ridder allows you to get him into your roster easier.