Dynasty Decision: D’Andre Swift
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
D’Andre Swift, RB DET
A year ago, Swift was being valued as the next cornerstone running back to build around. He was a middle-of-the-first-round startup pick valued as a top-three overall running back. However, after another injury-plagued season where he lost significant work to a journeyman back in Jamaal Williams, he has plummeted in value. So what should you be doing in dynasty? Should you be trying to buy low or get out before his value hits rock bottom?
Previous Performance
After being a second-round pick out of Georgia, Swift entered the NFL with a solid amount of hype in what was expected to be a loaded class of rookie running backs. In May 2020 ADP, the class had five rookie running backs going inside the top 16 at the position with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, and Cam Akers.
Swift had a competent rookie year, finishing as the RB16 despite only playing in 13 games and seeing 114 carries. Where he separated himself was his impressive usage in the passing game and excellent efficiency with double-digit touchdowns. In his sophomore season, it was more of the same, finishing as the RB14 in 13 games. He saw more volume in the running and passing games but found the end zone fewer times. He led the league in targets per game at the running back position with 78 targets through his 13 games.
This last year, Swift had a slightly down year, completing the season as the RB21, having played in 14 games. He saw less rushing volume, and although seeing a similar volume in the passing game, his catch rate fell from 79.5% in 2021 to 68.6% in 2022.
Situation and Usage
To many people’s surprise, the Lions were an elite offense in 2022. Jared Goff had a career year, and they moved the ball effectively. They were fourth in points per drive, providing plenty of scoring opportunities. His incredible usage in the passing game makes Swift so valuable for fantasy. He has seen 4.4, 6.0, and 5.0 targets per game in each season. He can be an elite fantasy option while splitting a backfield with another player because he sees a high volume of high-value touches.
The most significant question mark heading into 2023 is what the Lions will do around the goal line. Last year they almost wholly ignored Swift. He saw 12.1% of the team’s total carries inside the five-yard line, as Williams carried the ball 28 times for 14 touchdowns. It could have been a different story for his season if Swift had seen a small amount of that workload. Williams has now moved on to the New Orleans Saints in free agency, with the Lions bringing in David Montgomery to complement Swift. If Swift can maintain his usage from previous years but increase his touches around the goal line, it could mean a bounce-back season for the player heading into his fourth season.
Injuries and Contract
Since entering the league, Swift has yet to play an entire season. He has missed multiple games each season for various injuries, including concussion and shoulder and ankle sprains. None of them are long-term concerns; hopefully, he will see a clean bill of health at some point.
Heading into his fourth season as a second-round pick, a second contract is on the horizon. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and make an interesting decision for a Lions franchise that will have some big contracts coming due after hitting on multiple draft picks. This will be a make-or-break season for Swift contractually. If he breaks out, he will likely enter 2024 as a priority-free agent who can expect a big payday. If he disappoints again, he will be destined to be nothing more than a committee back and may struggle to command significant money in the off-season.
ADP and Trade Value
He is currently the RB10 in March ADP, and the Trade Analyzer has him worth the equivalent of the 1.05 in the 2023 draft. Recent trades are below; as you can see, his valuation in actual transactions seems much lower than the trade analyzer suggests and what you would expect from his ADP.
Conclusion
D’Andre Swift has dropped significantly in value over the past year, and despite being a year older, nothing much has changed. He still has the same incredible upside if he can stay healthy, primarily buoyed by his fantastic usage in the passing game.
Last year was challenging, being outproduced by Jamaal Williams almost exclusively off the back of unsustainable running back production. The addition of David Montgomery is a positive. Montgomery is less of a short-yardage back than Williams and is a much worse pass-catcher. Montgomery is not in the same category as Swift as a dynamic runner. Swift will again have elite passing game usage and may see more high-value touches in goal-to-go situations.
If you can buy Swift for a mid to late first-round pick in 1QB Leagues or a late first-round pick in superflex leagues, that is a decent high upside risk. I have even seen some trades of Swift for a single second-round pick. That is an absolute bargain and the type of transaction that could have a massive reward without much risk, given the price to acquire.
Whether you’re rebuilding or contending, Swift should be a player who appeals to everyone because if he stays healthy and produces, he will see a significant uptick in value. At that point, you can then sell him for a profit next off-season as he hits free agency. There is some risk, but there is always a risk when acquiring a running back, and few players in the league have the incredible fantasy ceiling that Swift has flashed.
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