Tight End Injuries: Dynasty Fantasy Football Implications
Throughout the off-season, I will attempt to identify key players who could wind up being buys or sells based on injury concerns. A reminder that these are all projections based on past injury, theoretical healing rate, and theoretical injury risk moving forward. These players are high-level athletes who receive 24/7 treatment from (most of the time) top-notch medical professionals, and they often change their routines (diet, training, warmups, post-care, etc) in attempts to preserve health long-term (think of Deebo Samuel, who dealt with multiple soft tissue injuries until he revamped his entire training and dietary regimen and has remained relatively healthy since).
Let’s dive in:
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Pitts remains priced as the dynasty TE1 despite some concerns moving forward. One of those concerns involves his knee, as he suffered a significant MCL tear that required surgery to repair. Typically MCL sprains do not require surgery due to a very high blood supply and the ability to heal on their own, however it occasionally requires repair if the trauma is bad enough (see DeAndre Hopkins last year, Joe Burrow with his ACL+ injury).
The good news is, because of the high blood supply, repair of the MCL is highly successful and allows for good return to play to prior level of function. Pitts should be able to return back to the field without limitations by May/June, fully ramping up to be ready without concern by week one of the 2023 season.
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
Freiermuth is an intriguing tight end in dynasty, one with the potential to jump into the next tier this coming season. While he seemed to be the second weapon for Kenny Pickett behind Diontae Johnson, he comes with his own concerns. While his knee injury should not be a concern after head coach Mike Tomlin stated he avoided surgery and will be full go for OTAs, the main concern involves his concussions. He has now suffered three in his first two seasons.
While concerning on paper, we have seen athletes suffer high levels of concussions but then avoid any future recurrence (see Brandin Cooks). He was able to return to play for the rest of the season until his knee injury, and there’s a decent chance he will avoid future recurrence of concussions into 2023. Only time will tell, but his potential moving forward is intriguing.
Darren Waller, TE NYG
Waller presents a tricky scenario, stepping into a potential role that would return him to top-five, if not top-three, tight end production with the Giants as their number one weapon. The main concern? He’s a 30-year-old tight end coming off a significant hamstring strain that cost him the majority of the season. I think we can move past the past ankle and back/IT band injuries from 2021 and before, but the soft tissue injury will likely be the main concern.
The good news is that he had not suffered any significant soft tissue injury in his past, so this may be a one-incident-and-done scenario. Time will tell, but I think given the landscape of tight end, that we can safely invest in Waller in 2023.
Zach Ertz, TE ARI
Ertz suffered a pretty significant injury late in the season, requiring surgery to repair both his ACL and MCL in late November, early December. That means he will have only nine months and maybe one-two weeks to be ready for week one of the 2023 season, which seems unlikely considering these multi-ligament repairs typically take 10-11 months to return to the field for non-quarterbacks. I would anticipate Ertz starting the season on PUP, meaning more early-season reps for (likely) Trey McBride. I would be avoiding Ertz in fantasy.
Evan Engram, TE JAC
Engram had quite possibly a career resurgence last season, finishing as the TE5 and avoiding injuries for the entire season for the first time since… ever? He had dealt with calf strains, ankle sprains, knee sprains and more in years past, but seemed to put those injury concerns behind him to create quite the pairing with Trevor Lawrence.
What are the odds that he will avoid injuries for two seasons in a row? Probably low, but he is certainly worth investing in this off-season. This Jaguars offense is quite the good fit for him, whether he’s only on one year or more.
Greg Dulcich, TE DEN
Dulcich had quite the rookie season, producing six top-12 fantasy weekly finishes in his ten games. Unfortunately, he re-aggravated a prior hamstring strain that he dealt with in the off-season that delayed his debut until week six, and was ruled out for the final two games of the season. As long as Denver does not attempt to replace him (he gave them zero reason to do that), he carries quite the intriguing upside, especially for the wasteland that is tight end. Invest accordingly.
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week 16 - December 21, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Ten - November 9, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven - October 19, 2024
