For the most part, locks are good. You lock your front door or car door to keep you safe and so no one can steal your things. Dangerous animals are locked in cages (until they are hopefully released into their natural habitat). I put a little lock on my diary so people can’t read my dreams and secrets. But sometimes locks can be bad. One time, when my son was barely two years old, he walked into the bathroom and accidentally locked himself in there. Thankfully I found the key before my wife took the door off the hinges.
When it comes to fantasy football, ‘take lock’ – the idea of sticking to your take – is a very bad lock. While first impressions are usually very important and can mostly be true as well, it is smart to update your ideas or beliefs when you are presented with new information. For example, Davante Adams came into the league with a lot of high expectations. This was followed by two years of very, very bad production. There weren’t many if any signs that Adams would succeed in the league. Year three rolled around and Adams put up 997 yards and 13 touchdowns. There are two main paths this situation can lead you down. The first path is the path of new information leading to change. Sure, maybe this isn’t the new reality but we have now seen a solid season so his value is on the upswing. The second path is take lock: “I’ve spent the past two years thinking he is bad so he is still bad.”
I bring this up because there is a player right now where I feel I might be stuck on the second path. That player is…
Tony Pollard, RB DAL
Pollard served as a solid backup and fantasy handcuff to Ezekiel Elliott for many years. Pollard’s dynasty value was always held around the 100 ADP mark based on the idea that “If Elliott were to miss any time, Pollard can be an RB1!” This all came to fruition last season when the decline of Elliott was very noticeable and the quickness of Pollard was easily seen as well. Even though he broke his leg in week 16, Pollard finished the season as the RB7 in points per game.
The now-healing running back was franchise tagged by the Cowboys and then the team cut Elliott, thus clearing the path for the Pollard believers to be in full euphoria.
Should we be valuing a 26-year-old running back – technically on his second contract, coming off of a broken leg, who has never truly led a backfield, with a new offense to learn – as the 47th player off the board in 1QB drafts? Because that was the result of the March ADP. I am very curious to dig into the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer to see how I feel about the world’s value of Pollard.
I like this start. If I earned the 1.12, after bragging to everyone that I won the league last season, I would feel okay with this move. At this point in rookie drafts, we are probably looking at RB4, WR4, QB5, TE1, or TE2. While I am not ready to crown Pollard as a tried and true RB1, at this price, you aren’t paying for that. On the other hand, I think I would absolutely take any first if I was trying to trade away Pollard. So while the 1.12 is literally the last first-round pick, it is still a first-round pick, so I’ll take it!
Nope. No way. My personal bias is heavy here with Tee Higgins but this is a 1QB league, which takes so much value away from the 1.11. We have no idea what Pollard is going to be. We have a lot of hopes and ideas but nothing more. On the other hand, we have Higgins, a very solid low-end WR1, high-end WR2 for seasons to come. I would literally dance if I could get Higgins on my team for this price.
If I have Pollard on my dynasty team, this is probably what I would be aiming to do with him. This feels like a very low-risk offer to move up to the 1.01 and get Bijan Robinson on your team. Even if you think that Pollard and Robinson might score within a similar range, they are not going to be very close in dynasty value, with Robinson being heavily favored. This is another trade where I would do a little jig in my seat when I see this trade get accepted. If I am moving off of the 1.01, I need something more solid than any of these three pieces.
I feel a little better after this exercise. I am glad I was able to find a trade (without actually digging for it, these were actually the first three trades on the page where Pollard was a main piece in the deal) where I was willing to take the Pollard side. Maybe I am still in a state of take lock but at least it appears the lock is rusty and jiggling a little bit to the point where maybe sometime soon it starts to slip open.
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