Dynasty Decision: Mike Evans
As we move into the off-season, I will bring back the ‘Dynasty Decision’ series. This will again review players as they reach the decision point of their fantasy careers. We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline, only to go on defying the odds.
The first player I will look at is…
Mike Evans, WR TB
Evans is on an incredible run of consistency when you look back at his seasonal finishes. He has finished as a top 24 wide receiver every year of his career. However, he has always been slightly boom-bust from a weekly standpoint. As we look ahead, he is facing some undoubted uncertainty. His quarterback Tom Brady has just retired, the Buccaneers appear to be in cap problems (currently projected to be $55m over the cap), Evans is 29 years old, and the performance cliff seems to be hurtling forwards at a rate of knots.
Previous Performance
Since he was drafted out of Texas A&M, Evans has been an elite fantasy performer. Nine consecutive top 24 seasons, nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. If you’ve rostered Evans throughout that time, he has helped you win plenty of matchups and potentially some championships.
Being a vertical threat, he has always been more susceptible to week-to-week volatility than most receivers. If things work and he connects on a couple of deep shots, he can blow up to have incredible numbers. If he has a down week, he can hurt your team and cost you the week. That was precisely the case this last year. Despite finishing as the WR18 (WR11 if you exclude week 18), Evans finished outside the top 36 receivers 47% of the time, which was seven weeks in which he hurt your fantasy team. So skewed were his stats by the week three and week 17 blow-up games (79 points in those two weeks combined) that if you removed those games, Evans would have finished as the WR40 in points per game. That’s the same range as Curtis Samuel, Isaiah Hodgins, and Rondale Moore.
Situation and Usage
Looking back at his usage, Evans’s situation has stayed the same. He has always had competent quarterback play, going from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady, with a little Ryan Fitzpatrick sprinkled in. He has always had a quarterback willing to push the ball downfield when the opportunity arises. He has seen over 100 targets, 12 red zone targets, and an aDOT north of 12.5 every season of his career.
Projecting ahead to 2023, there is about to be a drastic change. The Buccaneers need a quarterback and have no apparent means of getting one. They don’t have any cap space, and they have limited draft capital picking 19th in this year’s draft. Whether they can work some magic or whether they roll forward with Kyle Trask, it is going to be a significant downgrade for Evans.
Health/Contract
Evans has never had any significant health concerns. Missing a total of nine games across his nine seasons, he has been, on the whole, very healthy. A couple of hamstring strains have popped up, but nothing that should be a concern moving forward.
The contract side is where things get interesting. As mentioned, the Buccaneers need to make some moves this off-season to free up some cap space. Evans is currently in the final year of the five-year extension he signed back in 2018. There are some void years to push the cap hits down the road, but as things stand, he is slated to become a free agent in 2024. He will likely be back with the Buccaneers in 2023, and they will work out whether to extend a franchise legend next off-season.
However, there is a world in which the 29-year-old receiver is outside the franchise’s plans as they enter the next phase of their rebuild. Trading Evans and designating his as a post-June 1st transaction would free up a much-needed $14.5m in cap space and net them some draft capital which is likely to help them more than a 29-year receiver moving forward. It depends significantly on whether they try to compete and drag this roster for one more final push or accept their fate without an answer at quarterback and hit the reset button.
ADP and Trade Value
He is currently the WR32 in January ADP, and the trade analyzer has him worth around 1.09 to 1.10 in 2023 draft picks. Recent trades suggest that his value is significantly less than that. He was recently traded for a single second-round pick, and also Marcus Mariota and Josh Palmer.
Conclusion
You may be too late to get off the ship if you want to sell. The recent trades in the trade finder show that his value is meager. It will be interesting to see what happens when February ADP is released, but I would not be shocked to see Evans dropping into the WR40 range.
If you’re a contender, there are better win-now options who can help push you toward a title. The uncertainty around the quarterback situation and the boom-bust nature of his play could be better when you’re looking for that final piece. If you’re in a rebuild, you likely have waited too long to get out, and if you can get an early second or perhaps two future seconds, I would accept that instantly.
Evans is a declining asset and is not appealing to go and acquire. However, if you are a risk taker, there could be an opportunity to cash in. Given the recent Tom Brady retirement, his value is likely even lower. If the Buccaneers could acquire a competent quarterback, Evans could find himself in a new home. You could buy low on him and then sell for a profit if his situation improves. It would need to be buying considerably low for around a mid to late second, and it is a considerable risk because the situation may not improve, but you could gain some free value just by taking the risk.
- Dynasty Decision: James Cook - May 10, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Brian Robinson - May 2, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: David Montgomery - April 18, 2025
