Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Charlie Kolar, TE BAL
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Charlie Kolar
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Baltimore Ravens
College Team: Iowa State University
Draft Status: Round four, 128th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
You can find an impressive number of videos right here on Kolar’s DLF player page.
COMBINE REVIEW
RAS REVIEW (Courtesy of RAS Football)
To determine if Kolar fits the mold as a tight end you should be stashing, check out Dynasty Leverage 2.0: How to Approach Tight Ends in TE-Premium Leagues.
STRENGTHS
- Overall athleticism (RAS profile)
- Durability
- College production (86th percentile per Player Profiler)
- Speed (4.62-second 40-yard dash)
- Agility
WEAKNESSES
- Opportunity (behind Mark Andrews)
- Blocking
- Age (23 already)
OPPORTUNITIES
The most underrated and undervalued player in the class? Kolar is a fourth-round pick who was ultra-productive as the consistent number one option in college and checks every athleticism mark that is highly predictive of future top-12 production. Incredibly, he is not being drafted in superflex rookie ADP – the reasoning is likely that dynasty managers do not see an immediate impact. However, do we expect that from rookie tight ends? The answer is, no.
It is clear that Mark Andrews in Baltimore and the reputation of the offense being low volume in nature is depressing Kolar’s value and ADP. As noted above, he checked every other box. A rookie tight end is meant to be a long play to the point where the current depth chart around them is almost irrelevant. Isaiah Likely (drafted 11 picks later with a 4.88 RAS) is not a threat. He is the new Nick Boyle and has no impact on Kolar’s development into a future receiving threat.
I expect him to beat out Josh Oliver at some point in 2022 and become a rookie who gets limited backup and number two reps in certain packages and ascends into a secondary weapon in the offense within three years. At that point, dynasty managers can assess his situation again and in the worst-case scenario, Kolar thrives on his next contract with another team after 2025.
THREATS
Unfortunately, the sheer number of tight ends on the depth chart is scaring people away. Andrews is the anchor and centerpiece of the offense. He will be on the field as much as possible. Nick Boyle is returning after a serious injury ended his 2020 season and if he makes a full recovery after only two games in 2021, should see plenty of snaps as an H-back and primary run blocker. Oliver played in 14 games as the backup receiving option in 2021 and brings an intriguing profile to the table. Finally, Kolar is joined by fellow fourth-round rookie Likely which adds to the muddied view of the depth chart.
Ultimately, the Ravens’ have five tight ends right now. Boyle and Oliver are not long for the roster and conceivably, Kolar is the Oliver replacement and Likely was brought in to replace Boyle. For 2022 and the sake of immediate snaps, the team uses numerous tight ends at all times and the crowded room will lack clarity early on.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
I expect Kolar to make the roster and see some playing time as a rookie. Dawson Knox played 15 games as a rookie, hauling in 28 receptions for over 300 yards. He was facing minimal competition as a rookie and produced numbers below the starter threshold in a typical league. I expect a similar rookie season to that of Foster Moreau with the Raiders in 2019 where he clearly proved he belonged on the field but the expectations behind an All-Pro tight end were severely limited.
Kolar’s college stats from Sports Reference.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Considering Kolar brings an elite athletic profile along with very strong college production, he checks every box you can desire in a tight end prospect. In fact, I would put him at number two overall in the class in terms of overall profile and his fourth-round draft capital is nothing to scoff at.
The situation is clearly pushing his ADP and value down to a point where you can get him for free in most leagues; even those with scarce tight end premium settings. Dynasty managers are oftentimes incapable of seeing past the current depth chart and have trouble visualizing success curves for the tight end position in general.
I expect Kolar to be a full-time starter and potential top 12 player at the position within five years. He has the same upside as the aforementioned Knox and others with similar profiles such as Dallas Goedert.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Looking strictly at profile, Foster Moreau (low), Dawson Knox (middle) and Dallas Goedert (high) are all apt comparisons to the rookie. For each, the situation has driven their opportunity and dynasty value narrative.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
As previously noted, Kolar is free in drafts. His current ADP does not reflect the cost in a league with start two requirements and in those, expect to target him in the late third/early fourth round. The important thing to realize is the rookie class as a whole and where he fits with the other tight ends.
As noted, he is the second-best tight end in the class (behind Trey McBride) but costs much less. Watch the board for Jelani Woods, Greg Dulcich, Daniel Bellinger, Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson to go before Kolar. Capitalize on this and add him to every team where the position matters and do not look back.
In my personal portfolio, he is my second-highest rostered rookie tight end (Grant Calcaterra is a lesser version of Kolar and even cheaper) and 13th-highest rostered rookie overall (11 running backs and Calcaterra).
Be prepared for the long game here. Do not draft Kolar if you will be tempted to cut him next off-season when he “has not done much.”
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