Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades

It’s here; championship week is upon us. Hopefully, you’re well set to bring home some titles. However, before that, let’s look ahead to potential targets who could have significant value changes this off-season.

Jahan Dotson, WR WAS

Dotson was the ugly duckling when it came to first-round rookie receivers. While the other five rookie wide receivers in the first round of the NFL Draft had dynasty ADPs in the early to mid-first, Dotson fell to the back end of it and often behind day two picks in Christian Watson and Skyy Moore. Dotson hasn’t had the easiest of rookie seasons, battling a niggling hamstring injury alongside dealing with a revolving door at quarterback. However, when he has been on the field, he has produced. He has put up over 13 points in five of his nine performances. That may not sound incredible, but it is always encouraging for a rookie receiver to show relevancy and useable fantasy production despite challenging circumstances.

Looking ahead to next season, you can expect Dotson to continue taking a step forward. Curtis Samuel will be in the final year of his contract, and the Commanders can save almost $5m in moving on from him. Furthermore, the quarterback position will likely see a change. While it may not be incredible, any competent quarterback play is an upgrade for the entire offense over what they have put out this year under center.

This off-season, people will be sniffing around trying to buy several of the sophomore receivers predicting them to break out next year. While many others have more considerable name potential, Dotson has sneakily outproduced several. From a pure points-per-game perspective, Dotson is averaging more this season than Drake London, George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore, and Jameson Williams.

Given that people aren’t talking about Dotson a lot, you may be able to buy low and sneak him away on the cheap, but if you can acquire him for any pick outside the top eight in this year’s draft, I would absolutely be doing that. You may also be able to pivot from an aging veteran to buying low on Dotson before people realize his fantasy potential.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI

In the off-season, I was one of the biggest proponents of buying low on Hopkins. He saw an incredible value reduction primarily due to an injury-plagued year and a looming suspension. However, he promised a significant return on investment if you bought low at his August ADP of 102 overall. Since returning from suspension Hopkins has been a top-12 stud producing 16.9 fantasy points per game and richly rewarding those who pounced.

However, coming off a dud performance in the playoff semi-finals, the future could look better for Hopkins. Kyler Murray is done for the season after tearing his ACL; he will also likely miss the majority of next season. So Hopkins will probably be 31 or 32 before we see him paired with Murray. The Cardinals are very unlikely to bring in any expensive quarterback for next season, having just handed a boatload of money to Murray to be the franchise quarterback. So it could be a journeyman backup throwing balls to Hopkins next season, like Andy Dalton or Jacoby Brissett.

You then look at the star wide receiver’s contract, and there is a potential hiccup, as I mentioned in my preseason contract series. The Cardinals could save $8m by moving on from Hopkins this summer. While that would mean the Cardinals swallowing $22m in dead cap, they could view that as a sunk cost and move on from Hopkins in what is already likely to be a lost season without their franchise quarterback.

Hopkins’ value is only heading one way, and it will plummet very quickly if he is released or people realize he won’t have Murray throwing him the ball for the majority of next season. Right now, I would take any 2023 second-round pick to move him. However, you don’t need to sell that low and can probably get a bit more back in a trade before the season finishes, and we switch to off-season mode.

Josh Jacobs, RB LV

What do you do with a looming free agent running back who nobody wants to roster but has had a career year and carried many teams to titles? I can’t decide. Jacobs is such a tough player to value, and if you gamble and guess right on him this off-season, the rewards could be huge. However, he could equally struggle to find a suitable home for fantasy and be left squandering as a high-priced asset you will never get a return on.

Jacobs possibly has the most comprehensive range of outcomes this off-season regarding dynasty value. He could be a high-priced free agent who lands a dream home or re-signs with the Raiders and has another season or two as an elite fantasy back. He could equally not be retained by the Raiders, struggle to find a home in a loaded free agent and draft class, and end up settling for a 1a/1b type role and settling back into a mediocre volume-based RB2 type fantasy asset.

I am leaning towards selling, and I would take any 2023 first-round pick because this season was an outlier, and he will likely not live up to the fantasy production of this season ever again. However, if you gamble on Jacobs and guess right, you could be handsomely rewarded for your risk.