Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Four: Road Trip Edition

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

EDIT: I'm on the road for the next three weeks with VERY challenging internet access. Please get your questions in early to improve my chances of responding. Remember the "TNF" at the top if it applies. 

Week Four

Greetings from Yellowstone!

Hopefully things are looking up for your team(s) after these wild three weeks. It seems I say this every year but THIS year I really mean it: These first three weeks have been off the hook with crazy games, odd scoring and unpredictable trends playing out. I'm sensing a lot of frustration at out there in fantasy-land.

After three weeks, if you had Nick Chubb, James Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as your prediction for the top three running backs, you win! How about Jamaal Williams as RB7 and Khalil Herbert at RB8? Jonathan Taylor at RB9 and Christian McCaffrey at RB10? Yeah, panning out just how we expected.

Thankfully the wide receivers look somewhat normal, though Curtis Samuel at WR7 is a surprise. But this also exemplifies why I made a switch to prioritizing receivers over running backs starting in 2021. The running back by committee (RBBC) when combined with the increased injuries at the position have made running backs a tricky proposition as the foundation of your dynasty roster. Don't get me wrong here, a healthy and productive running back is worth his weight in gold, but finding one these days has been more difficult than ever and, even when you do, another year seemingly brings more 'hope and prayer' that everything remains as it was last year. And rarely does that seem to play out that way. Just too much inconsistency.

But while we've had an odd start to 2022, we're finally to a point where the trends get a bit easier to identify and forecast. I normally like to have a great degree of confidence as week two comes to a close but it was a week late here in 2022. To that end, my lineup advice always feels like too much guesswork in the first couple of weeks, but I feel much better about my week-three performance. I was starting to get concerned.

Just one last note here about DLF's new Discord server. We've been having a lot of fun with many of you on Sunday mornings and that will only continue as we get more people connected. It can sometimes be a bit fast and furious and I'm still finding my balance between answering your questions quickly while, at the same time, still performing my standard in-depth research to ensure you get a good answer, but it's coming along well. I highly recommend you check this out for all your questions, not just lineup advice, on Sunday AM. Not only are we doing lineup advice, but also a more wide-open chat starting at 8:00 AM PST every Sunday as well. Many like to bounce back and forth between the two channels.

We've added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF's new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we'll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren't missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I'd love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don't see a repeat of 2021. That doesn't mean I'm not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

I had a great week three, finishing 11-2, bringing my total record to 22-17. Could have been 12-1 on the week if not for that last Sterling Shepard reception but that's how it goes sometimes. I was able to use what we had seen over the first two weeks to make better, more informed, starting choices with my tracked 13 teams. My teams are rounding into shape but I need Dak Prescott to return. Somehow my superflex team with now only Matt Stafford at quarterback has managed to weather the Prescott injury. I do have Cooper Rush as my backup but have better position players to insert rather than to call upon Rush in a scoring format which punishes poor quarterback play and turnovers.

I never suggest knee jerk reactions be your default M.O. early in the season. It's very easy for us as dynasty coaches to be influenced by an injury, poor start or other factors and you must resist the urge to make sweeping changes. I have seen a lot of coaches selling CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Dalvin Cook and even Derrick Henry, among others, as they panic-out. Remember that we're playing the long game here. As I stated last week, my championship teams from last year both started 0-2 to begin 2022. When I surveyed the players comprising the teams, I still loved what I saw and sat on my hands to allow time to, hopefully, do the rest. I still believe this is the best action-reaction.

Play the long game but be sure to understand whether your team is competing, rebuilding or stuck in the middle - someplace you never want to be. Remember my adage: Win it all or be the worst, don't be mediocre.  That said, it's a fine line between understanding when you are mediocre and should be starting to rebuild or when you're just stuck in a bad situation for a few weeks, maybe as much as a full season.  Seems like this would be a good subject for a Discord chat!

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven't updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won't see WR1 players play 50% of a team's offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It's the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

This trend continues to play out as noted above in my "Week Four Recap."  I continue to look for opportunities to pick up flagging wide receivers from knee-jerking coaches early in the year. I haven't made any splash trades yet but I continue to remain open for business. I am NOT looking to move underperforming players for which I have a high degree of confidence in.

One only need to look at the first three weeks of running back usage to see an issue/trend which I expect to continue. In many cases, NFL coaches have turned to three-back rotations and, in most all cases, at least two-back rotations where touches are split. Not ideal. I still expect 'cream of the crop' backs to be worth their weight but confidence is eroding, as is the number of these backs within that group. To that end, I'm planning on starting the minimum number of backs each week while I continue to prioritize receivers. With rosters that I'm running back heavy in, I'll be waiting for 'ceiling' games to potentially sell high while maintaining just enough depth to have a serviceable roster.

At tight end, I continue to reduce priority of the position unless I have a top three or four name, led by Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. I continue to treat the position almost like a redraft strategy and will target in-season risers for a chance at major producers in 2023 and beyond. Look at the 2022 expectations for such players as Irv Smith, Cole Kmet, Albert Okwuegbunam, Noah Fant, Dawson Knox and even Kyle Pitts to see why you can fade this group. I do believe in the long term potential of Pitts but not at his current ADP. I have been pounding the table about Pitts as you know if you follow my work. He's valuable but not anywhere close to his current value.

Week four is coming up and should be a pivot-point for the fantasy season.

Betting Lines and Props

Record thus far:  1-2 (Due to travel, I haven't made any bets beyond week one).

Check back later in the week as I pick my favorite lines and props for week four.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I'm going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you've all come to expect from me. I've been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

• Please don't ask me to set your entire lineup
• Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
• Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
• Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
• Keep your questions as brief as possible - Story questions add a lot of time
• I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don't worry, I'll be back to it.
• It's easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I'm wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I'm still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let's do this...