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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Three Players I’m Done With

Addison Hayes turns a recent video on DLF’s YouTube channel into a written piece on three players he is avoiding in dynasty leagues.

Miles Sanders

In case you didn’t know, DLF has a YouTube channel! We post FREE video content over there at least five days a week covering dynasty trades, strategy, and player analysis. For my videos specifically, I write out a script to basically read when I record, but I realized that script could be turned into written content for anyone who doesn’t want to watch YouTube to read too!

So, without further ado, here is an “article-ized” version of one of my recent videos covering players I’m ‘done with’ in dynasty leagues!

Miles Sanders, RB PHI

I am done with Sanders in dynasty. I want nothing to do with him at his current cost in his current situation. Nope, don’t want him, I’m done. This does hurt me on the inside because Sanders is a Penn Stater, but I’m done buying back in every year only for him to fall short of expectations.

He did it in 2020 after finishing his rookie 2019 season as the RB15 with over 1,300 total yards, 50 receptions, and six touchdowns. The hype was there for a breakout second season that ultimately fell short based on a few missed games, a bad offense with limited touchdown opportunities, a near 50% drop in receptions and just overall inconsistency in his own workload throughout the season.

Here is his 2020 performance:

But… he finished the season strong with the introduction of Jalen Hurts, finishing as the RB3, RB30, and RB11 during the fantasy playoffs, so there was hope yet for 2021, right? Wrong.

Instead of committing more to Sanders, they actually drafted Kenneth Gainwell in the 2021 draft, which led to even more inconsistency in Sanders’ workload, on top of missing another month of football due to injuries.

He had five games with under 10 rush attempts, six games with two or fewer receptions, and finished as a top-24 back just four times, only 33% of his games played. But what saved the day again were two back-to-back games of 142 and 146 total yards in weeks 13 and 15 to gives us a glimpse of his upside. That little heartbeat of life is what’s kept Sanders’ dynasty value afloat all off-season on the hope that 2022 can be the year he puts it all together. Well, I’m not buying it.

Based on their moves this off-season, I would imagine the Eagles want to throw more, or at least throw more effectively after adding AJ Brown and even signing Zach Pascal (who honestly is probably better than Jalen Reagor). Gainwell is also still there to steal receiving work at the running back position, so Sanders is really just a two-down guy, which really caps his upside. Not to mention Sanders’ total ineffectiveness in the red zone – he not only lost touches to Jalen Hurts, but was also being out-touched last year by both Jordan Howard AND Boston Scott inside the 10- and 5-yard line.

So essentially, we have a running back who isn’t the receiving back on his team, isn’t the goal-line back on his team, and has missed a handful of games in each of the past seasons. Why would I want that?

In June dynasty ADP, he was going as the RB29, which might seem low until you look at some of the players behind him like Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary, and honestly even Rhamondre Stevenson – all guys I would rather have than Sanders. Looking at the trades done this month in the DLF Trade Finder, we have:

  • Sanders, Sony Michel, and a second for a 2023 first
  • Sanders and Gainwell for Antonio Gibson
  • Sanders and the 1.12 and 2.01 for Singletary and a 2023 first and second

These are easy trades to move off Sanders and I am cashing out now before we see him play in 2022 and disappoint us again, because his dynasty value may never recover from that.

Mike Williams, WR LAC

The next guy I’m done with is Williams, which to a lot of people might sound ridiculous after the season he just had. However, last year was not as fantastic as you might remember it to be. Yes, he posted over 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns on 76 receptions – a career year for Williams – but 40% of his that total season production came in the first five weeks. From week six on, Williams was the WR29, averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game.

Mike Williams in 2021:

The only explanation I can try to provide for this is that Justin Herbert just decided to spread the ball around more, or maybe defenses were more honed in onto Williams later in the season. I can’t place this on Keenan Allen because while Allen was the WR12 from week six on, he was still the WR18 over the first five weeks when Williams was going off, averaging over ten targets a game himself.

Keenan Allen in 2021:

Overall, I think this split just shows that Williams really is the WR2 on the team and that Allen is the WR1 who will get his first. The issue though, is that there are people who believe Williams is the WR1 and view his season last year at face value.

Curtis Patrick actually posted this poll on Twitter asking which receiver you’d prefer this year and to me, the fact this is even a conversation is insane. Williams is dead last among these players for me and honestly, I don’t even think he should be considered next to the other three. Even worse, the fact that Williams is ahead of Marquise Brown is also insane.

This redraft value is also spilling over into dynasty, where people are paying 23 firsts to acquire Williams, (insane!) I would be willing to add up to a second with Williams for a 23 first, like these trades here:

Or, depending on your league, you could get a 23 first-plus for Williams.

Or move him for a quality RB2 with upside, like these two trades here for Travis Etienne and JK Dobbins.

In June ADP, I’m surprised he’s only WR33 based on his trade value and redraft hype, but even here I would be willing to take a handful of guys going behind him ahead of Williams:

Once we get to the Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Watson range is where things get trickier, but just right there I’ve dropped Williams seven spots in wide receiver ADP and nearly a full round of startup value. He’s a spike week player attached to an elite quarterback, but that’s an ability you can find at much cheaper prices and possibly from younger players rather than from a soon to be 28-year-old with one top-30 finish at the position.

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

The final player I am done with in dynasty is Rodgers because I’m just done dealing with what feels like extra unnecessary nonsense off the field on top of where I believe the Packers are heading on the field. As we all know, the Packers have traded away Davante Adams, leaving Rodgers with the absolute worst receiving group he has even had in his career, with the next closest probably being 2015 when Jordy Nelson tore his ACL before the season.

In that year, Rodgers threw for only 3,800 yards and 31 touchdowns, finishing as the QB9. But that was 2015 QB9, which would have actually been QB12 in 2021 scoring (Ryan Tannehill/Derek Carr range), and that’s without Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson who could have easily pushed him to QB14 if they were healthy.

QB12 would be the worst finish Rodgers has ever had in his career as a starter playing an entire season. It could also get worse if Rodgers doesn’t top 30 touchdowns like he did in 2015, a total he failed to hit in both 2018 and 2019. If he replicated his 2015, but you take away five touchdowns, he would be QB14 in 2021 (QB16 with healthy Jackson and Wilson), essentially scoring the same as Carson Wentz.

This is the fear I have with Rodgers’ fantasy production as we reach the end of his NFL career. I don’t have much faith in this receiving corps and I don’t think any of them actually pan out for fantasy. I’ve made it very clear on the YouTube channel that I think Christian Watson is a bust, I like Allen Lazard, but he’s not an alpha, Sammy Watkins is Sammy Watkins, then you just have Robert Tonyan and the running backs. There’s a world where none of these guys break 1,000 yards, or even possibly 800 if they all miss a game or two here and there. That all is going to hurt Rodgers, who I already think has one foot out the door and is just fine collecting paychecks and not getting hurt for another year or two.

Even if he does have an Aaron Rodgers top-five fantasy season this year, we’ll just repeat the same off-season cycle we’ve had the last couple of years and I just don’t want to deal with that by having him on my dynasty roster. And this is dynasty too, so better to sell a year early than a year too late? I got a 23 first and second for him in a superflex league and I was happy to do that to just be done.

Like I said in the introduction, this entire article is just a written version of a recent video on DLF’s YouTube channel. If you are not a subscriber on YouTube, please become one! It’s 100% free and a few of your favorite writers here are also on the channel!

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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Three Players I’m Done With
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Bijan Guivehchi
2 months ago

Why would you rank Aaron Rodger’s 2015 season relative to 2019? Everyone has scored more in more recent seasons. It seems disingenuous to rank him in 2019 for how he performed in 2015.
I see a worse year than the previous two seasons, but his pending demise is greatly exaggerated. Off-season and off field news does not affect fantasy points scored. I actually think it’s a bad time to trade him based on the exact reasons you list. Once the season starts, he will be worth much more to contenders. If you can get an inferior team to trade you a 23 1st, have at it. But everyone in my leagues with inferior teams are guarding those like gold.

Mark Boutot
2 months ago

For me, a way to determine a WR’s effectiveness is to simply count how many weeks he has either scored a touchdown or accumulated over 100 total yards. Doing so, relative to my league’s scoring system, produces enough points with the receptions added for me to quickly determine that player had an “effective” week meaning if I lost, I didn’t lose because of him. He could have done better to help me out but he had a “pretty decent week”. When I look at Williams’ weekly production in ’21, I count 8 such weeks giving him an “effective rating” of 50%. Just a quick guide to tell me if I need to investigate further or just move on. Unfortunately for Williams’ owners last season, he had four, or half, of those weeks within the first 5 weeks of the season. Ideally, you would like to see them spread out more over the season but it is what it is.

For example, Deebo Samuel has 14 of 16 such weeks. Massive production but definitely not sustainable. D.J. Moore had 7 of 17 such games. How do we feel about Moore? Cee Dee Lamb had 8 of 16 such games, yet most people’s feelings about Lamb are fairly positive, as evidenced by his #3 WR dynasty ranking. And Lamb, over Weeks 15 through 17, fantasy playoffs weeks for most, finished really crappy.

So, I’m not defending Williams at all. I don’t have any stock in him; as a matter of fact, I own Keenan Allen and so whenever Williams is scoring TDs that means Allen is not and I’m disappointed. I’m just pointing a different way of looking at a player.

Justin Mazzella
2 months ago

Couldn’t agree more about Mike Williams. Been waiting for a season like his last for years but he’s been a disappointment his whole career. Finally has a good season and all the sudden he’s in the top 15.

I mildly agree on Rodgers. He’s turning into this weird version of himself and I think he needs to take that and go somewhere. But other than that, I think we might see a lower tier caliber Rodgers this year. I think the team is depleted after Adams left, and without him Rodgers might implode. But I said mildly because betting against one of the goats is a hard bet to make.

I disagree on Miles. Yes if you asked me “who’s a player that’s burned you the most in recent history?” Miles would be toward the top of the list. But I give him this year before I’m completely out on him. My two “last chance” guys are Sanders and CEH. I think Sanders has the talent (5.5 YPC, good hands, can work all 3 downs), but his volume was abysmal. Last year was an anomalous stat line for an RB. No Howard, Scott shouldn’t be as much a factor, their team looks quite complete on paper, if they function like the team they appear to be sanders can have a great season this year. I like him to bounce back, but this is my last year to give him a chance to.

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