2022 NFL Draft: Rookies Who Landed in the Best Situations for Dynasty Leagues, Part One
As dynasty managers know, landing spot and draft capital are crucial to any rookie’s success. Last year, I wrote both the best situations and the worst situations articles, and I really enjoyed putting them together. However, in 2021, we knew a lot more about landing spots before the NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were mortal locks at first and second overall, the 49ers were taking a quarterback at third overall, and the Falcons and Bengals had constant links to Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase, respectively.
But this year, the NFL Draft was far more wide-open, as there were no top-tier prospects at any fantasy-relevant position. Therefore, it was far more challenging to predict landing spots, although draft capital fell similarly to what I expected. Interestingly, it felt like there were far more good landing spots than bad ones, so I’ve decided to split up the best situations article into two parts with five players each. So let’s jump into part one!
Chris Olave, WR NO
Olave found himself in a good situation for two primary reasons. First, the Saints traded up to 11th overall to select him, even though I thought he’d be available in the middle of the first round. Therefore, he received higher than expected draft capital, and the Saints wanted him specifically.
Beyond the trade and draft capital, I also love Olave’s fit in the Saints’ offense. We know that current starter Jameis Winston is a fantasy goldmine, especially when he has legitimate weapons. Yes, he turned into a safe, boring quarterback in 2021, but that season seems like an extreme outlier in his career.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, Winston plummeted to 167.1 passing yards per game in 2021, a career-low. However, he had no usable receiving weapons over his seven games outside of Alvin Kamara. Marquez Callaway served as his WR1 as Michael Thomas missed the entire season.
Moving into 2022, Thomas still faces some concerns about his injury rehab, which could force Olave into a crucial role. In addition, the Saints failed to invest in a serious early-down complement to Kamara, so I don’t believe they plan to run the ball more than they did in 2021. In fact, they spent critical draft capital to trade up for Olave, signaling a pass-heavy approach.
I still easily prefer Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Jameson Williams over Olave in rookie drafts. Still, he forms a tier of one for me behind them and ahead of everyone else.
Skyy Moore, WR KC
I think it’s self-explanatory why the Chiefs represent a good landing spot for Moore. Patrick Mahomes is probably the best fantasy quarterback in the entire NFL, as he puts up consistent, substantial passing numbers without vulturing many rushing touchdowns. He’s also under contract with the Chiefs through 2031, so players like Moore can expect to spend at least their entire rookie contract playing with Mahomes.
Additionally, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins this off-season, leaving a massive void in their receiving room. While Travis Kelce could potentially step up, he turns 33 years old in October. No tight end in NFL history has ever been truly elite beyond that age cliff, so while he could beat the odds, I wouldn’t expect Kelce to improve his 2021 numbers.
Therefore, Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will need to fill in for Hill. From my content on the DLF YouTube Channel, most of you reading this article know that I have zero faith in Smith-Schuster to do much of anything. The Chiefs barely wanted him in free agency, and he only signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal.
In contrast, they committed $15 million guaranteed over three years to Valdes-Scantling, but I doubt he becomes a fantasy star either. He’s a nice deep, clear-out threat for an NFL offense, and he seems like a pure upgrade on Mecole Hardman’s role. Valdes-Scantling isn’t awful, but I feel like I know what he is, just like Smith-Schuster. I don’t expect him to become a fantasy WR1 or even a WR2 here.
In 2022, I expect Moore, Smith-Schuster, and Valdes-Scantling to form a messy wide receiver committee where nobody truly emerges as a fantasy star. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Moore becomes the WR1 in this room by the end of the 2022 season. If he does, he will skyrocket in dynasty value over the next year.
Christian Watson, WR GB
Watson and Moore have a lot of parallels after the NFL Draft. They landed in the two most desired spots, both in the second round. Additionally, both players face an unimposing depth chart to climb, although I’d argue that Watson faces even less opposition.
The Packers don’t have Travis Kelce on the roster, and they don’t have a single wide receiver as talented as Smith-Schuster or Valdes-Scantling. Right now, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Romeo Doubs, and Samori Toure are their other receivers, with Robert Tonyan and Josiah Deguara at tight end. Of those players, I only have faith in Lazard and Tonyan to produce any relevant numbers, and the rest are purely dart throws.
Therefore, the Packers only have Watson to fill the giant Davante Adams-sized hole in their passing offense. I usually don’t ever use a vacated targets argument, but Aaron Rodgers has proven that he will produce passing numbers no matter his weapons.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He’s thrown over 4,000 passing yards in essentially every healthy season, and he always has a high touchdown total without a proportional number of interceptions. Of course, it’s not a given that Watson will produce fantasy numbers, as he needs to earn Rodgers’ trust, which can often be a fickle process. He’s also a raw prospect who may need time to translate to the NFL. But if he does, he has every opportunity to produce fantasy numbers in this situation.
James Cook, RB BUF
I didn’t expect Cook to get second-round draft capital, but the Bills surprised me by selecting him at 63rd overall. Of course, the Bills are a fantasy goldmine, as Josh Allen makes the entire offense fantasy-relevant. However, even though this landing spot allows Cook to be a potential fantasy star, I would caution dynasty managers against assuming he necessarily will be.
Let’s look at the Bills’ running backs over the past three years, specifically since they drafted Devin Singletary in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
Charts courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
In 2019, Singletary split work with Frank Gore, limiting his upside. He put up two RB1 weeks, but he primarily served as a committee back. Then in 2020, the Bills drafted Zack Moss in the third round, who took Gore’s spot as Singletary’s main complement.
That year, the backfield turned into fantasy poison. The two players combined for a single RB1 performance all year, going to Moss in week eight. Outside of that game, neither player finished above RB15 in any week, and it was utterly impossible to predict who would lead the backfield each week. If 2022 looks like the 2020 split, then there’s little to no hope for fantasy relevance in this backfield this year.
However, 2021 brought some new upside to the Bills’ backfield.
In week two, both Moss and Singletary finished as RB1s, but then the backfield became an unproductive committee. Outside of Matt Breida’s outlier RB1 game in week ten, no running back produced high-end value throughout most of the season. But suddenly, in week 14, Singletary took command of the backfield. He finished as the RB14 or higher in the final five games, with four top-ten performances over the last four weeks.
Therefore, it’s clear that the Bills’ offense can support a fantasy star if one player gets the lion’s share of the work. I’m not saying that Cook will necessarily see that workload, especially as he saw fewer carries than Zamir White at Georgia. However, if Cook becomes the Bills’ lead running back, he has RB1 upside. Additionally, Singletary is a free agent after the 2022 season, which could open more opportunities for him. It’s not a lock, but Cook couldn’t have landed in a higher upside spot.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
I hoped Pierce would land on day two, but he went in the fourth round to the Texans with the 107th overall pick. Houston had an abysmal running back depth chart headlined by veterans Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, and Pierce should have an opportunity to challenge for the starting job in year one.
However, I want to caution dynasty managers against ascribing too much long-term value to Pierce. His fourth-round capital makes him vulnerable to being replaced, similar to Michael Carter after 2021. If Pierce hits in his rookie year, I would recommend selling him before the 2023 NFL Draft. The Texans also have multiple extra draft picks in 2023, so the odds they select another running back next year are higher than most teams.
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