Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.06

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 25, 2022

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

Rookie Selection 1.06

The Pick: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama

It seems the NFL is buzzing about Williams, the electric playmaker from Alabama. Every year, the hype seems to continue to grow leading up to draft day with a player or two ultimately being selected much earlier than most projected. You might remember that was the case last year with another former Alabama wideout, Jaylen Waddle. This year, it’s Williams.

You likely know Williams’ story by now, but let’s roll through a few of the highlights. As a high schooler, he broke the Missouri state record for the 300-meter hurdles, previously held by Ezekiel Elliott. Raised in a track family, Williams transitioned to a focus on football and never looked back. He drew offers from multiple Power-Five schools before eventually choosing Ohio State over Alabama. After two seasons with relatively little impact or playing time, Williams reconsidered that decision and transferred to Alabama. For the Crimson Tide, the timing was perfect as they had just lost two of the fastest wideouts in the SEC, DeVonta Smith and Waddle. Williams stepped right in and became the team’s top target from day one. Williams led the SEC in receiving yardage and finished as a first team All-American.

If you are not a Williams believer, you might be pointing to his rail thin frame as a concern. At 6’1” and 179 pounds, Williams is again reminding dynasty managers of Smith last year. His Combine-measure BMI of 22.98 is actually even lower than Smith’s. Per Scott Barrett, only two wide receivers with a sub-25 BMI have ever produced multiple 1,000-yard seasons. Only eight other wideouts have ever even measured with a sub-23 BMI at the Combine, as Williams did.

You could also be concerned about Williams status as a “one-year wonder,” and those worries would be understandable. He was stuck behind Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Ohio State, which ultimately led to him transferring. Now, he’s projected to be drafted ahead of Olave and perhaps is battling Wilson to be the top wideout drafted. Finally, we all know Williams suffered a torn ACL in the National Championship game. The NFL doesn’t seem concerned about this injury so I don’t think dynasty managers should be, either. It will be a slow start to his career and dynasty managers will need to be patient, but the wait could certainly be worth it.

Williams has been locked in a top-five wide receiver in this class based on our rookie ADP and maintained a rookie ADP in the mid-first round and it currently sits at 1.06. Grinding the Mocks projects Williams to be drafted as the second receiver off the board with a top-13 overall pick.

Trade Value

1.06 for Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic
1.06 for Brandon Aiyuk
1.06 for 1.08/2.11

Possible Pivots

Drake London, Chris Olave

Super-Flex Options

London

Rookie Selection 2.06

The Pick: Brian Robinson, RB Alabama

When Robinson was choosing a college to continue his football career, it’s easy to presume he picked with his heart, not his head. A Tuscaloosa native, Robinson was a four-star recruit and wasn’t swayed by the multiple five-star backs already on the Crimson Tide roster. He wanted to stay home and play. And he did. Robinson was a fifth-string back as a freshman, but still saw some work throughout the season. That trend continued as Robinson slowly creeped up the depth chart as players like Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris bolted for the NFL. Robinson’s college career was set to end after the 2020 season but thanks to Covid-related rules, Robinson took advantage of an extra year of eligibility that really paid off.

Robinson was the Alabama bell-cow back in 2021, rushing for over 1,300 yards and 14 scores, while adding a pass-catching element he had rarely flashed in college. He also caught 35 passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns. He was voted First-Team All-SEC. In a year in which the running back crop is thin, that extra year helped Robinson in more ways than one. A powerful runner who is faster than expected, Robinson finished third in the country with 79 missed tackles forced and is an ideal fit for a team looking for a two-down thumper or short-yardage back.

Robinson’s rookie ADP has held in this mid-second round range, though his current rookie ADP of RB6 is his highest positional rank of the off-season. Robinson is a likely early Day Three pick, meaning his landing spot will be critical in determining his dynasty value.

Trade Value

Possible Pivots

John Metchie, Trey McBride, Zamir White

Super-Flex Options

David Bell

Rookie Selection 3.06

The Pick: Pierre Strong, RB SDSU

It has been quite the rise for Strong, the speedy running back from South Dakota State. In our first collection of rookie ADP posted prior to the NFL Combine, Strong was the 65^th player overall and the RB30. In most dynasty leagues, this would equate to being undrafted. After an impressive Combine, including Strong running a 4.37 40 (the best time among all backs), he began rising up the ranks. Strong is currently the RB10 and 30^th overall player. He also finished among the top30th percentile in the vertical jump (38”, 85^th%), broad jump (10’4”, 84^th%) and 3-Cone (6.95, 72^nd%).

Strong dominated at the FCS level, earning a spot on the All-America team in all four seasons of his career. He also rushed for over 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons, with the Covid-shortened 2020 being the exception. He finished his career with 1,686 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, both career-highs. Strong is lacking some traits of prototypical NFL backs, which could limit him to a change-of-pace or committee back. He is almost certain to fall to Day Three of the NFL Draft and will need a friendly landing spot to have any real dynasty value.

Trade Value

3.06 for Russell Gage
3.06/2023 2^nd round pick for 2.04
3.06 for 3.09/2023 4^th round pick

Possible Pivots

Alec Pierce, Kenny Pickett

Super-Flex Options

Jerome Ford

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.