Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.07
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.07
The Pick: Chris Olave, WR Ohio State
Most dynasty players expected the talented Olave to be part of last year’s draft class. Instead, he chose to return to Ohio State for his senior season, a fact he gets knocked for by some fantasy analysts. However, Olave is a smooth and speedy playmaker and is considered by many to be the best route runner in the class. That’s good because once he catches the ball, he’s not doing much with it as he lacks run after the catch skills and only broke one tackle all last season and tallied only six broken tackles in his four-year career.
With that in mind, Olave still feels like one of the safest picks in the class, from both a dynasty standpoint as well as when looking at the NFL Draft. His current dynasty rookie ADP is 1.07, which has been his consistent value range throughout the off-season. Grinding the Mocks projects Olave to be the fourth receiver and 20th overall player off the board later this week. With the Chiefs, Cowboys and Packers holding picks among the final ten selections of the first round, there is a strong chance his value increase thanks to a beneficial landing spot.
Beyond his after the catch limitations, there are reasons to doubt Olave’s ceiling in the league as well. Weighing in at the Combine at just 187 pounds, his slender frame makes him an easy target for defenders and he did not show the ability to play through contact, with multiple scouts showing concern about his toughness level and play strength. So, in short, Olave has a high floor and an unknown ceiling.
Trade Value
- 1.07 for DeAndre Hopkins
- 1.07 for Travis Kelce
- 1.07 for 1.11/2.02/2023 3rd round pick
Possible Pivots
Jameson Williams, Isaiah Spiller, George Pickens
Super-Flex Options
Jameson Williams
Rookie Selection 2.07
The Pick:Â Trey McBride, TE Colorado State
Dynasty managers were spoiled last year with the arrival of Kyle Pitts, who was valued (and used) more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. There is no one in this class who will likely be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (or dynasty rookie drafts), and certainly not at 1.01, where Pitts was sometimes selected last year. Still, McBride is a very solid option, coming off an impressive season where he led all FBS tight ends with 90 receptions and over 1,100 yards, earning the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end.
McBride does not have elite speed and fails to gain much yardage after the catch or break tackles. He is a reliable pass-catcher and above average blocker and can be used all over the field.
All in all, McBride seems to be locked in as a second-rounder, both in the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts. It seems likely he will claim the TE1 title with little challenge from other rookies. In the NFL Draft, he’s projected to be a top-50 draft pick, while the second tight end could fall to the middle of the third round. The gap is similar for dynasty rookie drafts as well, where McBride has been a mid-late second round pick throughout the off-season.
Trade Value
- 2.07 for Robert Woods
- 2.07/Allen Lazard for 2.05/3.05
- 2.07 for 2023 2nd, 4th & 5th round picks
Possible Pivots
John Metchie, Brian Robinson, James Cook
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 3.07
The Pick:Â Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU
A former walk-on at Brigham Young, not only did Allgeier eventually earn a scholarship, he became a team leader, the starting running back and led the nation in rushing touchdowns in 2021. He even played through a switch to linebacker before taking over the running back job in 2020. Allgeier’s high school track performance tells you a lot about his versatility as he excelled in four events, the 100 and 200-meter dash, the high jump and shot put. Speed, agility and strength. He put that all together to compile an impressive college career at BYU and although he does not have elite speed, he is a build-up runner, gaining speed as he goes.
Allgeier ranked second in the country with over 1,100 yards after contact. He also forced 76 missed tackles (that’s 75 more than Olave), sixth most among FBS running backs. He possesses above average pass-blocking skills will get him on the field soon, but at just over 220 pounds, he might not be big enough considering his power-running style.
In summary, Allgeier is currently projected to be a sixth-round pick and the RB12 off the board. With that draft capital, he would need a tempting landing spot for him to even be selected in most rookie drafts.
Trade Value
- 3.07/2023 3rd round pick for 3.01
- 3.07/Marquez Callaway for Austin Hooper
Possible Pivots
Pierre Strong, Khalil Shakir, Calvin Austin
Super-Flex Options
Allgeier
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