Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.12
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.12
The Pick: Rachaad White, RB Arizona State
For the past two months, White has held down the final spot in the first round of our rookie ADP data. I do not expect this trend to continue beyond the upcoming NFL Draft. White is a great story and, thanks to his pass-catching chops, he’ll have an opportunity to continue his career in the NFL, but he’s currently being overvalued.
White did not even merit a single star as a high school recruit looking for a college to continue his career – that led to him bouncing around at a pair of low-level schools before eventually playing well enough to become one of the top junior college running backs. When White left Mount San Antonio College, he had multiple Power-Five offers, settling on Arizona State. White made a quick impact on the Sun Devils program, averaging over ten yards per carry in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. The numbers improved in 2021 as White finished his college career as the dominant part of the Arizona State offense, accounting for over 41% of the team’s rushing production and 22% of the receiving production.
White is an especially strong receiver out of the backfield. Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points noted White joined an exclusive group of backs this past season when he averaged over 90 rushing yards per game and over 40 receiving yards per tilt.
All Power-5 Running Backs with at least 90.0 rushing YPG and 40.0 receiving YPG in a single season since 2013:
Rachaad White, 2021
Saquon Barkley, 2017
Joe Mixon, 2016
Christian McCaffrey, 2015
Todd Gurley, 2013
/end of list— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 28, 2022
That’s all the good news.
The bad news (and why I think White would be a reach at his current 1.12 rookie ADP) comes with draft capital. According to Grinding the Mocks, a site that collects NFL mock draft data and forms Expected Draft Position data, White is projected to be drafted as the RB8 with the 137th overall pick – that would make White a late fourth-round pick. It wouldn’t exactly kill his dynasty value, but it would certainly push him out of the first-round conversation, just as it did with Kenneth Gainwell a year ago.
Trade Value
• 1.12/2023 2nd round pick for 1.08
• 1.12/Alexander Mattison for Antonio Gibson
• 1.12/DeVonta Smith for Tee Higgins
Possible Pivots
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 2.12
The Pick: Jalen Tolbert, WR South Alabama
The former three-sport star, Tolbert is a big play waiting to happen. As a two-star recruit, Tolbert opted to stay home and play for South Alabama. After an early injury, he had a slow start to his college career, but showed consistent improvement and turned into one of the most productive receivers in the FBS. Tolbert’s 1,474 receiving yards in 2021 were good for sixth-most in the country and he was named Sun Belt Player of the Year. Tolbert averaged at least 17 yards per reception in each of the past three seasons as well. His 16 deep catches and 646 deep ball yards were both good for sixth-most in FBS.
Despite playing for a non-Power Five school, Tolbert has developed a reputation as an impactful receiver. His strong performance at the Senior Bowl seemingly solidified his status as a Day Two pick in the NFL Draft. Grinding the Mocks projects Tolbert to be the 15th wideout selected at #84 overall – that places him comfortably in the third-round, which would likely boost his dynasty value. Personally, I see Tolbert in the same range as Christian Watson and Skyy Moore, each of whom are receiving more attention from the dynasty community during this pre-Draft stage.
Trade Value
• 2.12 for Kenny Golladay
• 2.12 for Gabriel Davis
• 2.12 for Sammy Watkins
Possible Pivots
Dameon Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 3.12
The Pick: Greg Dulcich, TE UCLA
Another strong success story in this class is Dulcich, who drew little FBS interest out of high school before earning a preferred walk-on spot at hometown UCLA. His college career got off to an understandably slow start but by 2020, Dulcich had earned a scholarship and was the team’s starting tight end and led the Bruins in receiving in each of the past two seasons. An explosive athlete, Dulcich drew rave reviews at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine where he showed off his athleticism. While he offers little help as a blocker, he could be a serious threat as a downfield weapon. His averaged depth of target (aDot) was 12 yards, rankings ninth among all tight ends. He also ranked among the top-seven tight ends in both deep catches and deep yards. Dulcich averaged 17.6 yards per reception, which is the highest mark for an FBS tight end since 2000.
I expect Dulcich to be a top-two tight end and Grinding the Mocks agrees, placing him at 83 overall. Pending landing spot, it would be a surprise if he is still around late in round three of rookie drafts.
Trade Value
• 3.12/Quez Watkins for 3.06
• 3.12 for KJ Osborn
• 3.12/Tyler Higbee for Jakobi Meyers
Possible Pivots
Calvin Austin, Khalil Shakir
Super-Flex Options
- Monday Mocks: January 1QB Dynasty ADP - January 13, 2025
- Monday Mocks: Final 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft - January 6, 2025
- Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 17 - December 31, 2024
