2021 NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the NFC South

The NFL Draft is one of the most anticipated events each year for the dynasty community. The players we have scouted and analyzed for months (or years) finally have a home for the foreseeable future. Rookie landing spots create a ripple effect throughout each roster, requiring evaluation not only of the rookies and how they fit with their new teams, but also of the veterans impacted by the changing landscape.

With the exception of the Falcons’ splashy first-round pick, none of the squads in the NFC South spent premium draft capital on the offensive skill positions. Outside of that selection of fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts, the entirety of the division’s draft may have yielded only one additional immediate impact player at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions. So while it will assuredly take time for all possible scenarios to unfold, the vast majority of veterans in Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay were likely sleeping easy following the draft’s conclusion.

Let’s break down the implications of this year’s NFL Draft additions for standing members of NFC South offenses.

Atlanta Falcons

Winners – Russell Gage, WR

The easy answer would be running back Mike Davis, as Atlanta neglected to select any additional competition for him outside of those already on the team. Instead, I’ll dig a little deeper and go with receiver Russell Gage.

Already trending up by virtue of following up a 49-446-1 sophomore line with a 72-786-4 (109 targets) effort as a third-year player, Gage enters his contract year further bolstered by the results of Atlanta’s draft. Given the swirling rumors of an impending trade of superstar receiver Julio Jones, the Falcons could have tipped their hand with an indication of displeasure by picking another wideout prior to the seventh round.

Instead, Gage finds himself locked in as a starter in 3WR sets, with the potential to finish in the top two or three in team targets if Jones is indeed dealt. Calvin Ridley, and perhaps even Pitts should he buck traditional rookie trends, will lead the way, but Gage is a clear under-the-radar victor following the conclusion of the draft.

Loser – Hayden Hurst, TE

Unlike with my selection above, I only need to scratch the surface when picking a draft loser for the Falcons. While it’s true the Falcons’ hands may have effectively been tied due to Pitts’ existence as what essentially amounts to a positional unicorn, the fact is they stood pat, didn’t trade down, and selected the guy who should immediately relegate the 2020 starter to the bench.

New coach Arthur Smith has talked up 2TE sets, but actions speak louder than words, and in addition to picking Pitts the Falcons declined Hurst’s fifth-year rookie option. For 2021 alone, it would not be surprising to see Hurst’s 88 targets from 2020 decrease by half, and his six scores from last season will also more than likely diminish dramatically.

Carolina Panthers

Winner – Sam Darnold, QB

Similar to the scenarios for NFC East signal-callers Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts, the Panthers did not equivocate in their 2021 direction as it relates to showing support for their quarterback. With a top-ten pick, Carolina could have hedged their bets by choosing either Justin Fields or Mac Jones, but instead focused on the defensive side of the ball.

And though their second pick didn’t occur until the conclusion of round two, they selected a receiver in Terrace Marshall, who many pundits had as a first-round pick prior to the emergence of nebulous medical red flags. The onus remains on Darnold to prove exactly why he selected so highly in 2018, but the Panthers are clearly giving him every chance to succeed, as well as peace of mind.

Loser – Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold, TE

Though he never showed it in college with an aggregate 401 receiving yards, Tommy Tremble’s elite physical attributes could portend well for future NFL success. It’s here that the third-round pick is in good company with holdover Ian Thomas and free-agent addition Dan Arnold, who represent a pair of players with above-average physical attributes but little in the way of production to show for it.

It’s understood that tight ends typically take a few years to develop, but Thomas is entering the last year of his contract and Arnold was signed for the bargain-basement price of $6 million over two years – so while it’s impossible to know how Tremble will pan out, his selection as the 83rd overall player seemingly shows that neither player is in the team’s long-term plans.

New Orleans Saints

Winner – Tre’Quan Smith, WR

Similar to the Falcons detailed above, the Saints did not select a wide receiver until the draft’s final round. In doing so, they took a depth chart that was ripe for upheaval and instead solidified it behind standout Michael Thomas. The biggest winner through these machinations is seemingly Smith, who despite his annual casting as a fantasy disappointment for what has seemed like ten years running is actually only entering his fourth season.

It remains to be seen who will be throwing him the ball, but even in a conservative offense, Smith has an outside chance at accruing 100 looks (double his 2020 total) as the team’s third target behind Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara.

Loser Second Winner – Adam Trautman, TE

If you’re a believer in fourth-round pick Ian Book taking over the starting job sooner rather later, if at all, then I could see listing the pair of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as losers. However, the draft was so kind to Saints veterans that instead of trying to shoehorn one into this category, I’m instead going to name tight end Adam Trautman as the team’s second winner.

Much like with Smith, the stars appear to be aligning for Trautman as a second-year breakout player. Following a typically slow rookie season (15-171-1), the 2020 third-round pick first saw teammate Jared Cook depart in free agency, followed up by the Saints failing to select any new competition at the position.

As an above-average athlete out of small-school Dayton, some growing pains were to be expected for the man who sported a ridiculous 97th percentile college dominator rating. But Trautman now has a chance to grow up in a hurry as the team’s potential tight end of both the present and future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winner – OJ Howard, TE

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Bucs moved heaven and earth to run it back with (literally) every starter from the 2020 championship squad returning. This meant that few, if any rookies were going to come in and lay claim to a starting spot in 2021, as each and every skill position slot is locked and loaded, with many boasting playmakers even at the second level of the depth chart. Former first-round pick Howard is one of those latter types of guys.

With nominal starter Rob Gronkowski essentially playing year to year at this point in his career, it would have been reasonable for the team to find his successor via the draft. But with no picks spent at the position, it could be that the front office and coaching staff believe Howard is already that guy. If he can prove his health and get on the field, Howard could use his contract year as a springboard for a longer-term deal and secure a starting spot in 2022.

Loser – Tyler Johnson, WR

By virtue of keeping the gang intact, Tampa Bay was forced to rely on the franchise tag (Chris Godwin) and one-year deals (Antonio Brown). While it’s certainly possible the team could reach multi-year deals with some of these players moving forward, it’s also likely they will be priced out by the competition. Should players like Godwin and Brown find themselves elsewhere in 2022, Johnson could have been a major beneficiary.

Instead, the team selected wide receiver Jaelon Darden in the fourth round, directly adding competition for the rising sophomore. Darden is as diminutive (5’8”, 174 pounds) as he is supremely agile, likely pegging him for the slot receiver position which would put him in direct competition with Johnson.

Given his superior size and a gaudier collegiate resume in a larger program, Johnson could certainly win this battle – but it remains notable that of all the players waiting in the wings, he’s the only non-quarterback facing a direct challenge.

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2021 NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the NFC South