2021 Rookie Class: An Early Look at DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

DeVonta Smith

Joseph Nammour Posted On January 20, 2021

As a true freshman, DeVonta Smith made what would be the biggest play of most players’ careers when he caught the touchdown pass to walk his team off in overtime of the National Championship game. Then, he faded to the background as more heralded teammates earned accolades and received draft capital. The man affectionately nicknamed “The Slim Reaper” has made a career out of punishing anyone who overlooks him, and despite his success prior to the 2020 season, was still somewhat anonymous on a national level. That all changed this year.

AS A RECRUIT

Smith was a four-star recruit out of Amite High School in Amite, Louisiana. According to 247Sports’ Composite ranking, Smith was rated as the 62nd-best prospect in the country, the ninth-best wide receiver in the nation, and the second-best player in the state of Louisiana. Different recruiting services had Smith listed as a five-star. Depending on the site, Smith was listed at 6’1” and between 157 and 165 pounds, and was best known for his ball skills, hands, and route-running prowess.

Ranking courtesy of 24/7 Sports.

Smith originally committed to Georgia in August of 2015 before de-committing just five months later. His recruitment remained open for over a year after that point, until Smith made up his mind just one week after a visit from Nick Saban. Smith committed to Alabama and signed his letter of intent on February 1, 2017.

Ultimately, Smith received 23 offers, including many from some of the top programs in the country. In addition to Alabama and Georgia, he was offered by LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Miami, and plenty of others.

COLLEGIATE CAREER

Statistics via SportsReference.

Smith’s 2020 season may go down as the most impressive season we’ve ever seen from a collegiate wide receiver, but his rise to fame actually began three years earlier.

As a true freshman on a run-first team, Smith was competing for targets with Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Irv Smith Jr, Josh Jacobs, Bo Scarbrough, Robert Foster, and Cam Sims, all of whom are in the NFL. Because of this, his numbers look poor on the surface due to a lack of playing time. Despite limited action, he made his name on the biggest stage when he was on the receiving end of a Tua Tagovailoa pass to win the National Championship.

In 2018, his stats improved as Ridley matriculated to the NFL. With Tagovailoa taking over as the starting quarterback, Alabama adopted more of a pass-heavy approach, so there were more opportunities for receivers to get involved. Even still, Smith was fifth on the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

2019 was the “breakout” most fans were looking for, even if Smith didn’t technically qualify for a breakout season. He caught 68 passes (second to Jeudy) for a team-leading 1,256 yards and 14 touchdowns. Surprisingly, he opted to return to school for his senior season to improve his draft stock and avoid a loaded 2020 wide receiver class.

2020 is when everything clicked. With Jeudy and Ruggs out of the way, Smith started the season hot. There’s no way to deny it. However, he didn’t fully take off until after Jaylen Waddle injured his ankle against Tennessee in the fifth game of the season (highlighted in yellow below).

Statistics via Sports Reference.

From that point on, Smith was unstoppable. In the eight games after Waddle’s injury – which does include the National Championship game against Ohio State in which Waddle was active – Smith accounted for 72 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 19 touchdowns.

Here’s a non-comprehensive list of Smith’s accomplishments in 2020:

Won the Heisman Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding player in college football
Won the Biletnikoff Award, which is given to the best receiver in college football
Won the Paul Hornung Award, in essence given to the most versatile player in college football
Won the Maxwell Award, which is given to the best all-around player in college football
Won a national championship, recording a whopping 12 receptions for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the first half
Led the country in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns
Set the all-time SEC record for receiving touchdowns in a single season (23), surpassing Ja’Marr Chase’s 2019 record of 20
Named the SEC Player of the Year and voted First-Team All-SEC
Named the Associated Press Player of the Year
Unanimous All-American

Metrics guys may not like Smith as much due to a late breakout age and poor dominator rating early in his career, but he rounded out his career with one of the most prolific seasons the sport has ever seen. He finishes his college career with 15 more receiving touchdowns than any other player in the history of the SEC, which sounds mind-boggling, but most of the players in this cohort (especially the ones in the last two decades) declared for the NFL Draft after three seasons rather than four.

ATHLETIC PROFILE

Measurements courtesy of ESPN.

There is no way around it – Smith is incredibly slender. Listed at [a generous] 6’1”, 175 pounds on Alabama’s roster, he’s one of the skinniest receivers I’ve seen excel at this high of a level, perhaps ever. Typically, players of this archetype can add some mass to fill out once they reach the next level, but it does not look like Smith’s frame can really facilitate much more added weight. As someone who looks like he could get pushed over by a stiff breeze, his BMI will be incredibly low, and will be far outside the range in which we typically see alpha receivers reside. I’m just not sure how much it matters.

Smith is a good athlete, albeit not a total burner. He makes a living off quickness and technical prowess rather than relying on pure athleticism. Having said that, his play speed is likely faster than his testing speed. He’s said to have a verified 4.49-second 40 yard dash under his belt, although he looks a couple of ticks faster on tape. Smith posted a solid short shuttle and decent vertical jump at the Opening in 2016.

STRENGTHS

Route running and separation
Explosive and agile, particularly in close quarters and after the catch with the ball in his hands
Tremendous hands; plays big and attacks the ball in the air at the catch point
Outstanding body control
Varied release package to defeat press coverage and separate at the line of scrimmage
Good toughness and plays fearlessly
Understands nuances of the position and rarely allows contact from defensive backs to affect him mid-route
Has experience returning punts and kicks
Lines up all over the formation (Z, X, and slot)
Experience in big games and high-leverage situations; consistently shows up on the biggest stage

WEAKNESSES

Thin and lean frame; probably maxed out at/near 175 pounds
Not a great blocker – despite good effort – due to a lack of strength
Did not statistically break out until his senior season at age 22
Did not truly take over as the top receiver until Jaylen Waddle got hurt
Age – will turn 23 during his rookie season

DRAFT VALUE

Given the way Smith closed out the 2020 season, it’s hard to imagine him falling out of the top ten picks in April’s NFL Draft. Various mock drafts have pitted him as high as third overall and as low as 15th, but it seems increasingly likely that he’ll be drafted within the first six picks. As it stands, I’m not sure if Smith or Ja’Marr Chase will be the first receiver off the board, but both will likely be drafted to be the focal point of their respective offenses within a season or two.

DYNASTY OUTLOOK

It’s typically not good process to bet on outliers when there is little or no historical precedent for a player of a similar archetype succeeding, which is the case for a receiver of Smith’s stature, especially when that player breaks out late. But in looking through the draft history of players like him with the draft capital he’s likely to receive, we don’t see very many players over six feet or drafted inside the top ten, and none of them had the production Smith posted throughout his career.

Smith’s presumptive draft capital will ensure he remains an early pick in rookie drafts this off-season. Smith was the fourth overall player in our most recent Devy ADP, behind Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Etienne, and Najee Harris. I’d expect Smith to leap Etienne in upcoming drafts due to recency bias. He was the 1.05 in a recent 1QB DLF staff rookie mock draft, where I selected him, and was the 1.07 in our staff superflex draft.

Early first-round NFL draft capital and being selected in this range in rookie drafts likely slots him in as a top-25 dynasty wide receiver. Barring a big flop like we’ve recently seen from N’Keal Harry or JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Smith’s value will be insulated for close to two full seasons, with room for meteoric growth.