2020 Dynasty Capsule: New Orleans Saints
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The New Orleans Saints had yet another controversial finish to their playoff run in 2019 after finishing the season as champions of the NFC South with the fourth highest-scoring offense in the league, and one of only four teams with 13+ victories – despite losing their starting quarterback for five games. The Saints showed no signs of slowing down offensively, but are all the signs pointing up? Let’s look deeper at the team that will pick 24th overall in the 2020 draft.
We might as well start at the top of the food chain with the man calling the shots. Here we go!
Head Coach
Sean Payton
Age: 56
Payton was coming to the end of his deal signed in 2016 (five years, $45 million, signed through 2020). He and the team agreed on an extension to keep the Super Bowl-winning head coach in town for another five seasons – music to the ears of the Saints faithful who had worried about a possible change in scenery.
Quarterback
Drew Brees (ADP: 139.67, QB23)
Age: 41
All ADP data via Dynasty League Football
You can see above that just four months ago, the 41-year-old quarterback of the New Orleans Saints, was at an all-time low in terms of dynasty value. It is hard to argue when taking into account his age and the fact he missed five plus games in 2019 due to a torn ligament in his thumb. He just cannot keep doing it, right?
Well, think again. Brees just put up one of the best seasons of his 19-year career. When you exclude 2001, his rookie season, 2019 saw Brees post the highest touchdown rate (7.1 TD%) and quarterback rating (116.1 QB Rate), the second-highest completion percentage (74.3%) and second-lowest interception rate (1.1 INT%), tied for the third-highest adjusted yards per attempt (8.8 AY/A), as well as the fifth-highest total QBR (74.2 QBR). All despite injuring a finger that you kind of need to throw anything. His 16-game pace upon returning to the starting spot would have produced 4571 yards passing, 44 touchdowns, and just four inceptions. Brees is aging like fine wine at home, and on the road.
The Saints with Drew Brees went 4-1 on the road in 2019. Brees completed 68.84% and had a 10/1 TD/INT ratio. N.O. averaged 12.4 fewer att per game on the road so the volume was limited and he may not have won weeks but efficiency means he didn't lose any either, right? Well… pic.twitter.com/Sk1W3ELM95
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) January 23, 2020
2020 And Beyond
Brees is currently an unrestricted free agent (UFA) after making $25,000,000 in year four of a five-year, $45.5 million dollar deal. In fact, none of the Saints quarterbacks are under contract in 2020, with Teddy Bridgewater joining Brees as a UFA and Taysom Hill a restricted free agent (RFA). Needless to say, New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis has some work to do, and likely two – if not all three – quarterbacks will be back next season.
If your team is in “win now” mode, Brees can be a great option to buy because you are not going to have to pay top-tier dollars for potential top-tier production. There is the risk that age catches up to the old man, but if the way he finished 2019 is any indication of things to come in the short term, he has more than enough left to provide a stable option for your potential run. The value increases in superflex and 2QB formats where Brees could be your QB2 when others are rolling out Andy Dalton week-to-week. If you are in “re-build mode,” Brees could definitely warrant an attractive offer from a team that is playing for 2020.
Teddy Bridgewater (ADP: 208.67, QB30)
Age: 27
Let’s go back to August 30th, 2016 – the day Bridgewater suffered a non-contact injury that would put his career in jeopardy. The then 24-year-old Minnesota Vikings quarterback completely destroyed his knee during a practice prior to the season, and many feared the worst.
Now fast forward two plus seasons. Bridgewater was the backup for one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the game on a great offense. He’s seen a spike in his average draft position (ADP) prior to each of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, largely based on the potential for Brees to retire. The difference between this year and last? Bridgewater held that value based on performance and has seen a large spike again with the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterback. Now we know “Teddy Two Gloves” can still play though.
2019 Performance
Bridgewater got the chance to start five games and play in six in 2019. To say he pleasantly surprised would be a massive understatement. In the six games in which Teddy had more than one attempt passing, he threw nine touchdowns. His career-high is 14 – twice – and both in 12+ games started the first two years in the league. The fifth-year quarterback posted career highs in completion percentage, touchdown rate, interception rate, AY/A and quarterback rating.
As an unrestrictd free agent, he has the opportunity to either re-sign with the team that helped revitalize his career and wait patiently for his turn to run the offense, or go try and prove he can run an offense by testing the market. The optimal situation would be staying in New Orleans, but he has to wait and see what Brees is going to do. Bridgewater is still 27 until November 10th, but another year as a backup would put him at nearly 29 prior to the start of next season. He does have a leg up on the shifty, athletic third-string quarterback we will get to now.
Taysom Hill (ADP: 224.83, QB 45)
Age: 29
Taysom Hill is 2.2 years older than Teddy Bridgewater and will be 30 before the season starts. Bridgewater will be 28 in October
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) January 22, 2020
Hill has become the Swiss Army knife for the Saints. Over the last 30 games, not including playoff games, Hill has 64 rushing attempts for 352 yards and three touchdowns. He has caught 22-of-29 targets for 238 yards and six touchdowns while completing 6-of-13 attempts passing for 119 yards with one interception. He is definitely not someone to invest any real draft capital in, but is intriguing as a potential starter if the Saints were to go that way. I would not bank on a touchdown every 11.78 opportunities (attempt passing, attempt rushing, target) to hold, though. NFL MVP Lamar Jackson produced a touchdown once every 13.46 opportunities.
Again, all three Saints quarterbacks are looking for a contract (if Brees intends to play), but the skill set of Hill as an all-around threat could make him a very useful piece with a more involved role or starting job. His ability to run and take part in the passing game could help lessen the effect of his average passing ability. Something like a “Lamar Jackson lite” is the best-case scenario. Maybe try to get him as a throw-in piece or grab him off waivers. The weekly upside as a fill-in piece could be worth it alone. Sean Payton does love this guy.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara (ADP: 4.83, RB4)
Age: 24
Since October of 2018, Kamara has consistently been a top-five pick. Through the first 31 games of his career, he scored 32 touchdowns while averaging 5.13 yards per attempt rushing and 9.48 yards per reception.
The third-year back had performed like every bit the top-five overall pick, yet 2019 did not go as planned. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, Kamara had scored just two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving), and was the RB20 on the season in standard formats. He was, however, the RB11 in point per reception (PPR) formats and actually averaged 19.1 opportunities per game- just 0.8 fewer than his remarkable 2018 season. He even averaged 5.5 evaded tackles per game, 0.6 more than last season despite suffering a high-ankle sprain that hampered him much of the year and cost the pro bowler two games.
So, what does this tell us?
First, even though he was hampered by the injury, he was nearly as involved and was even more elusive on the season as a whole. The touchdowns just were not there. Touchdowns can vary greatly year to year, so if you take them out of the equation he was a similar player to years past. One thing we can look at is the high-value red zone opportunities. In 2018, he averaged 4.8 red zone touches, nearly doubles his per-game total in 2019 (2.6). This includes the game in which the ankle sprain occurred, as well as the game in which he returned following the two-game absence. Both had zero opportunities inside the 20-yard line.
A Healthy Kamara
In the final two weeks of the season, we got to see the player we all expected. He averaged 14.5 touches and two touchdowns in weeks 16 and 17, exactly the high-efficiency asset you thought you had when the 2019 season started. The emergence of Hill near the goal line has also thrown a wrench in the gears. Of the seven touchdowns Hill scored this year, four of them came from inside the 10-yard line. This could be a concerning trend going forward if the Saints retain Hill, but a player that scores 18 touchdowns one year and six the following is likely somewhere in the middle. Kamara killed his buy-window with his end-of-season performance, but the way he is used early in 2020 needs to be monitored closely.
The third-year back is entering the final year of his rookie contract. His versatility could give him an advantage over some other backs that cannot do everything Kamara does. Running back contracts have been a hot-button issue for a bit now, but Kamara does enough to warrant top dollar for the position despite the success our next player had in the same offense.
Latavius Murray (ADP: 141.5, RB47)
Age: 30
Murray took full advantage of his limited opportunities in 2019. He averaged the second-highest yards per attempt rushing and had the second-most receptions of his career. He only had four games with double-digit attempts rushing, and two of them (week seven (27 attempts) and week eight (21 attempts)) came without Kamara active. Murray had 23 red zone touches, but 13 of them came without Kamara. He scored six touchdowns in 2019; four came without the lead back.
Murray’s Splits in 2019
All splits data via FFStatistics Splits App
His performance was a demonstration in “running backs don’t matter,” but it was clear who the top option was when everyone was healthy. We have seen the sixth-year back produce at a high level, but it was largely touchdown driven. Those types of opportunities have been few and far between when the backfield is 100%.
We have seen that Kamara will never get the full load, so Murray will have some deep league value in-season outside of the fact that he is a must-own handcuff. We saw what he can do with the lion’s share of the workload, so if you are a Kamara owner, you need to protect your investment.
Murray’s Future
He is currently under contract until 2023 (four years, $14.4 million), but, following the 2020 season, the Saints will have an opportunity to get out of the contract with a $1.7 million dollar cap hit, compared to $5.35 million in 2020. Murray is not going anywhere yet. In 2022, the dead cap hit drops to $850,000.
Dwayne Washington (ADP: 239.83)
Age: 25
Washington was active for all 16 games in 2019, but saw just 9 total touches (eight rushing attempts, one reception). He has reached the end of the two-year, $1.35 million dollar deal that the Saints signed the former Detroit Lion to in 2018. He will enter free agency as a UFA unless New Orleans chooses to offer a deal.
Taquan Mizzell (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
Nothing to see here with the third-year back that did not see any action in 2019.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (ADP: 3.17, WR1)
Age: 26
Is there really anything that we can say about Thomas that has not already been said? A record-breaking season and a record-breaking start to his career should tell us just about all we need to know about this particular player. You can see his ADP is at an all-time high.
Here is a little historical context to further demonstrate just how good Thomas has been through year four of his career.
Note: The formula for this model takes into account all positive outcome (touchdowns and first downs), medium outcome (anything not resulting in a touchdown, first down, incompletion, or fumble), and negative outcome (incompletions, fumbles) plays. The premium = (the receiver’s production grade – targets) to demonstrate how efficient the wide receiver was on their given volume. You will notice that 12/16 seasons not belonging to Thomas have a negative value, while Thomas has 3/4 season with a positive value. Just 2.9% of the 3,296 wide receiver seasons in the sample (106) have produced a positive premium valued season.
Quarterback Proof?
Below you can see that the Brees injury was not an issue for the fourth-year wideout from Ohio State. The numbers might have been slightly different, but the outcomes led you to the same results. This is a big factor to hang your hat on when considering anyone else at the WR1 spot in dynasty. Thomas does not need the deep ball to flourish. He wins at every level with elite route running, the ability to always gain the advantage, and the best hands in the league.
Michael Thomas 2019 Quarterback Splits
Despite the elite and consistent production, buying Thomas is not really an option right now unless you are willing to take out a second mortgage on your home. Holding is likely the way to go, but there is a selling opportunity here if you find someone willing to take out that second mortgage.
Thomas will likely never be as productive again. Yes, Bridgewater was able to feed Thomas consistently, but he is not the Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees. A five-game sample does not make a career. The Saints will almost certainly look to acquire new receiving weapons in the off-season as well. If someone is willing to sell the farm, take a look. If not, hold for now.
Ted Ginn Jr. (ADP: 219.5)
Age: 34
Ginn essentially went through the motions this year. Basically every relevant statistic he posted in 2019 ranks far below his career bests. He may still be able to get deep, but Brees is not going to load up and let it fly multiple times a game, which is the kind of usage that has always suited Ginn the best. He is a UFA in 2020 and one would not anticipate New Orleans bringing him back into the fold with the depth at the position in the draft and a decently loaded free agent wide receiver group. He will play somewhere next season and could find some revitalized value if his new quarterback has a big arm.
Tre’Quan Smith (ADP: 153.83, WR 66)
Age: 24
Following his 2018 season, there were some pretty high expectations for the Saints 2018 third-round pick, as illustrated in the chart above. Needless to say, the expectations were far from met.
Smith caught 18-of-25 targets for 234 yards in 11 games. Outside of the five touchdowns that tied his 2018 mark, his counting stats were about 60% of his rookie year – not the second-year jump we hoped for. The season was not all bad, though. First, let’s remember that Smith missed five games with an ankle injury. He missed weeks three and four, then tried to play in week five, but re-aggravated the injury and played just 19-of-70 snaps. The former University of Central Florida star did not see the field again until week ten after the bye.
Reason For Hope?
Following the bye week, Smith saw just three targets in weeks ten and 11. After that though, he put up a nice little run from week 12 through week 17. He averaged two receptions on 2.8 targets for 24.3 yards, better than we had previously seen.
Where we see the real positive sign, though, is in the touchdown department. Smith scored four touchdowns in that span, and all of them came from the 21-yard line or closer, so we might as well just say four red zone targets. Also, the final touchdown of his season was the first of his career not on the road (home (9), road (1)). The Saints third-string receiver played on at least 60% of the offensive snaps in every remaining game as well.
Smith will enter his third year in 2020, and history tells us this is the time – the third-year breakout. You can draft him around the 150 range in startups right now. While he may never be a volume and yardage guy, his ability to produce in the red zone should keep the bottom from falling out. Even if touchdowns are not a sticky stat, red zone usage can be for some players with a highly efficient quarterback. If you are still a believer, now is not necessarily the time to buy. The closer we get to draft season, and the more rumors that swirl about a possible wide receiver selection in the draft, the bigger the discount you should be able to get.
Deonte Harris (ADP: N/A)
Age: 22
Harris is a 5’6″ 170 pound kick return specialist. As 2019 progressed, Harris started to get more and more involved outside of terrified coverage teams every Sunday. Through the first seven weeks of the season, Harris had just two touches prior to week eight. From week eight through the remainder of the season, Harris had five receptions and seven attempts on the ground, which is nothing to get that excited about but it is a start. Expect some increased usage in 2020 for the player that is a threat to house one every time the ball is in his hands.
Harris did miss a few games with a hamstring injury and his slight frame will always leave him vulnerable to hard contact but he is definitely electric.
Krishawn Hogan (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Hogan is set to make $585,000 in 2020 during the last year of a two-year contract. He will be an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA) in 2021, which means that he can play for the Saints or nobody. There is an opportunity for a second wide receiver option to grab hold, but the likelihood that player is a 2017 UDFA with one target in his career is slim, especially with the two young wide receivers above and the 2020 draft class we are expecting. Hogan spent the end of the season on injured reserve.
Emmanuel Butler (RESERVE/FUTURE)
Age: 23
Butler was not active for any games in 2019, but the Saints saw enough from the rookie to sign him to a reserve/futures contract on January 6, 2020 – a glimmer of hope for a team that needs to find a second wide receiving option that can produce consistently.
All five of the below wide receivers will be looking for a contract in 2020.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey (RESERVE/FUTURE)
Age: 21
Humphrey was active for six games in 2019 (including playoffs) and played on 55 offensive snaps. He failed to see a target.
Maurice Harris (ADP: 232.33)
Age: 27
Harris was active for zero games in 2019. He spent the previous three seasons with the Washington Redskins and caught 40-of-65 targets for 432 yards receiving with one touchdown.
Tim White (ADP: N/A)
Age:25
White was active for zero games in 2019.
Keith Kirkwood (ADP: 234.83)
Age: 26
Kirkwood played in one game in 2019 and saw zero targets. He spent eight games in the middle of the season on injured reserve.
Austin Carr (ADP: 139.5)
Age: 28
Carr was active for six games and caught 1-of-4 targets for nine yards receiving. He was placed on injured reserve for the last seven games of the season.
Tight End
Jared Cook (ADP: 137.17, TE 23)
Age: 32
Jared Cook’s value has consistently been around ADP 150 over the past season-and-a-half, a place it had not been since the end of the 2013 season. For a player with as much athletic ability as Cook has, disappointment has been the most consistent feeling towards the 11-year veteran.
In the previous two seasons though, Cook has been one of the most consistent weapons at the tight end position (2019 TE7 in both formats, 2018 TE5 in both formats). From week five through the end of the season, he averaged 3.5 receptions on 4.7 targets with 61.5 yards receiving and 0.9 touchdowns per game, and he was the TE2 in standard (TE1 in PPG) and TE5 in PPR (TE3 in PPG). He is currently under contract just through 2020.
So what are the chances that a soon to be 33-year-old tight end that just posted the two best seasons of his career can repeat? New Orleans has the right coach and quarterback to figure out the best way to use an athletic tight end.
In 2018, his value was largely based on volume and being practically the only guy in town, much like Darren Waller in Oakland this season. Cook saw 36 fewer targets in 2019, but caught a career-high nine touchdowns to go with other career highs in yards-per-reception and yards-per-target (16.4 Y/R, 10.8 Y/T). During the 13 week stretch that we discussed above, he averaged 17.47 Y/R and 13.09 Y/T.
For context, Rob Gronkowski had one season in which he matched or exceeded these two metrics Cook posted from week 5 through week 17. Regression is likely, but again, right coach, right quarterback.
Josh Hill (ADP: 238.5)
Age: 29
For the second straight season, Hill played on over 60% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps and saw career highs in targets, receptions, and yards along with the second-highest amount of yards per game, receptions per game and touchdowns. With Cook under contract until 2021 and his dead cap hit sitting at $4 million in 2020 compared to his $7 million dollar salary, Cook should retain the same role and likewise for Hill.
If the 32-year-old Cook shows any signs of slowing down, Hill could become a factor, especially in the red zone. Thirteen of the 14 touchdowns the seventh-year tight end has scored have been targets from the 12-yard line or closer. He was signed to a three-year contract extension in December of 2018.
Dan Arnold (Age 24), Jason Vander-Lann (Age 27), Garrett Griffin (Age 25), Mitchell Loewen (Age 26), and Cole Wick (Age 26).
Arnold played in just two games for the Saints in 2019 before being waived on December 4th and claimed a day later by the Arizona Cardinals. Each of the other four tight ends has very limited playing time at the pro level. Vander-Laan and Griffin are under contract until 2021, but neither see the field and both spent time on injured reserve in 2019. Vander-Laan was active for two games in 2019. Griffin last played in a game on December 31st, 2017. Loewen was active for just one game in 2019, and Wick has not been active for a game since October 7th, 2018; neither are currently under contract.
Thank you for reading. I’m on Twitter @willson8tor.
