Rookie Report Card: Jalen Hurts and KJ Hamler
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, rookie season potential and long term upside.
The series continues as we shine the spotlight on Jalen Hurts and KJ Hamler.
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
Week 14 Stats: 17/30 passing, 167 yards, one touchdown pass, 18 carries, 106 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
The latest Oklahoma quarterback to enter the NFL Draft, Jalen Hurts wasn’t in consideration for the number one overall pick like his predecessors Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield but there was a lot to like about his game.
In his lone season as a starter in Norman, Hurts completed nearly 70% of his passes for 3,851 yards, 32 touchdowns and just eight interceptions while also piling up 1,298 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground. Despite those incredible numbers though, most doubted he’d be as effective at the next level because of his habit of holding onto the ball too long while looking for a big play downfield or as a runner, inconsistent accuracy on all three levels, and lack of arm strength to make necessary throws on the boundary and down the field.
Even with those flaws, however, it was difficult to watch Hurts in his time with the Sooners without seeing his upside on Sundays as a dual-threat playmaker.
With stop-and-start quickness to rival nearly every athletic quarterback the NFL has seen, Hurts has the ability to get out of any sack and although many feel he tucks the ball too quickly, his knack for feeling pressure and escaping is incredible. Furthermore, when he does choose to keep his eyes down the field outside the pocket, he’s actually quite accurate on short to intermediate throws.
Although Hurts is seen as a smaller quarterback due to his lack of height (6’-1”, 220 pounds), he’s a physical runner, willing to take a hit to get a first down or get to the goal line. While many compare him to Tim Tebow, I’ve always seen him as a smaller version of Cam Newton because much like Newton he’s a physical runner and unlike Tebow, he showed he can actually complete passes to open receivers from the pocket.
When Hurts was selected by the Eagles in the second round of the draft, even his biggest supporters cringed at the landing spot as he’d no doubt sit behind Carson Wentz. He settled in as a late second round or early third-round rookie pick in superflex leagues, but fell as late as the fourth round in some drafts due to the uncertainty of his future.
After Hurts nearly brought Philadelphia back against the Packers in week 13, he got a chance to start on Sunday and few gave him a chance as a fantasy option against the tough Saints defense but he was brilliant. Completing 17 of 30 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown while running for 108 yards, he finished as a QB1 in his first start and immediately went from being a top-40 quarterback in dynasty to a top-20 option at the position.
Electrifying as a runner and accurate (enough) as a passer, Hurts put the New Orleans defense in tough spots throughout the game, taking advantage of an overeager pass rush on many occasions to get chunk gains on the ground and making enough good throws from the pocket to keep linebackers and safeties guessing at what was coming next.
At this point, all we know is that Hurts is sure to start at least one more game on Sunday against the Cardinals. While it’s unknown how defenses will adjust to what Hurts put on film, his display against the Saints should have shown dynasty managers exactly how dynamic he can be and the high floor, QB1 upside that so many rushing quarterbacks have.
Already carrying a mid-first round value in super-flex leagues, it seems like trading Hurts now could be a mistake. If he plays well in the next three games against Arizona, Dallas and Washington – which is very possible and perhaps even likely – he’ll be worth far more over the off-season. With all three remaining matchups ranking in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks and the Cardinals playing more man coverage than any other defense in the league (which is sure to create running lanes for Hurts), it’s possible his dynasty value reaches low-QB1 levels as soon as New Year’s Day.
KJ Hamler, WR DEN
Week 14 Stats: Two receptions, 86 yards, two touchdowns (three targets)
One of my favorite third-round rookies over the summer, Hamler was one of the most electrifying players in college football over the last couple of seasons, averaging 16.9 yards per catch for Penn State. Although his 98 catches and 13 touchdowns in 26 games may not have grabbed a lot of headlines, what he put on film with the Nittany Lions was enough to make any dynasty manager a fan.
Playing mostly in the slot in college, Hamler displayed elite burst off the line of scrimmage and the long speed to pull away from anybody that lined up across from him. Whether it be a short crossing route, deep over route, or straight fly pattern, Hamler was explosive enough to make a defensive back’s cushion disappear in a blink and had enough gas in the tank to continue to pull away.
With the ball in his hands, Hamler displayed elite after-the-catch ability, regularly turning a simple drag route into a big play. His great explosiveness, shiftiness to make defenders miss in open space, and balance along the sideline make him an electrifying option in the screen game and as a runner on end-arounds or jet sweeps.
Although the doubters point to his lack of size (5’-9”, 178 pounds), far too many drops in college and his unpolished route tree as reasons to worry about whether he can hold up or be as productive as a pro, many of us saw his raw explosiveness as untapped potential and a reason to think he could be an even better professional than college player.
Because he wasn’t able to participate in the Combine due to a hamstring injury, many dynasty managers were unaware of Hamler’s speed (he’s rumored to run the 40-yard dash in the 4.2/4.3 range) which would have no doubt catapulted him up draft boards. While landing in Denver with an unproven quarterback and other talented pass catchers may have also hurt his rookie draft stock, his late-third/early-fourth round rookie ADP was a slap in the face to his uncapped long-term upside.
Although he’s had an up-and-down rookie season that included another hamstring injury that cost him a few games, Hamler has had a nice start to his career – including two bomb touchdowns on Sunday which displayed his blazing speed perfectly. Catching 29 of his 52 targets for 377 yards and three scores on the year, he’s third on the team in snap percentage (54%) behind Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick and has been the team’s primary slot receiver when healthy.
While many point to next year’s return of Courtland Sutton from injury as well as the maturation of Jeudy as reason’s to tame future expectations of Hamler I have a hard time believing those factors do nothing but help Hamler’s potential for two reasons. First, none of those other three are slot receivers and second, Sutton and Jeudy (along with Noah Fant) taking defensive attention away from Hamler does will create more space for him to get open and make plays after the catch. This is all assuming the quarterback play is good enough of course.
All things told, Hamler still needs to improve as a short route runner to reach his potential as an electrifying underneath option with big-play potential but I have no doubt he’ll get better in that area due to his raw speed and stop-and-start abilities. While he may continue to be a boom or bust option to begin his career and there is little reason to start him in the short term, he’s dripping with WR2 upside if he and the rest of the Broncos continue to improve. One of my favorite long-term wide receiver stashes, he’s an excellent trade target for those looking for cheap youth at the position this off-season.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
