Target Share Report: Week Three

Peter Howard Posted On October 1, 2020

Feels like we’re running hot, doesn’t it? I mean, not to toot our own horn but we’ve been on a lot of the WR2s who have been producing this year since week one and in the case of Anthony Miller, the off-season. We’ve correctly identified players about to regress accurately for both more and fewer fantasy points, and we’re not even a start/sit column. I don’t know, dynasty folks, for a little-read column, I think we’re killing it.

So, let’s keep it rolling into week four by looking at the usage of players through the first three weeks.

Target Share leaders

Here are the targets hare leaders through three weeks. Previous notes about how target share changes through a season, yet remains a strong indicator of season-long success, should be kept in mind – as well as how often players produce target shares over 25%.

I’ve also removed everyone who hasn’t played at least two games because we can do things like that now.

Keenan Allen, WR LAC

So, we did catch Allen’s bounce back before it happened, but it’s still worth noting he’s killing it in 2020, and while his production has just about caught up with his role so far, he still makes the list as a *slight* under producer. Through three weeks, he has a PPG of 18.8 in PPR scoring and the average for a target share this large is a smidge higher. But after a monster week two, it will pay to moderate expectations moving forward at the same time. Autostart, just in case you were unsure.

Darren Waller, TE LV

Last week was disappointing, but I’d urge you to stay the course. Not because of injuries and regression. But because the man has a 30% target share in an offense that could stuff whoever it wanted on the depth chart and would still have a large role for Waller. He’s now the only tight end close to cracking the top 12 in the role for his team.

Odell Beckham, WR CLE

Starting to hate the Browns again? I know the feeling. Beckham’s usage all but screams WR1, but Jarvis Landry is still performing well below him on the target pecking order. I’m still starting him everywhere but it’s enough to make you believe in curses some weeks.

Allen Robinson, WR CHI

Nick Foles szn? From my perspective, I think Robinson was going to bounce back anyway, but I’ll take a quarterback upgrade along with it. Believe it or not, after week three his PPG for 2020 still looks low compared to this target share. Let’s keep it rolling.

DJ Moore, WR CAR

Moore may be a buy-in dynasty right now, worth sending some offers in my opinion. His role is exactly what we want. Though the targets in Carolina have less value than those on the list above him, that’s mostly a product of how the offense is working. However, despite that, Moore is probably getting unlucky in the touchdown department. I’d buy him before he has a heavy regression game and his production bounces up over what the team can probably support season long.

Target Share for top PPG Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee, TE LAR

Full disclosure, I was heavily on the “anti” train for Higbee this off-season. So maybe I’m suffering confirmation bias because he’s sure been spanking me in 2020 for taking that position. However, despite a three-touchdown game (rare, and not likely to repeat) his role has been very low compared to the other top 12 PPG players at the position.

Now feels like a sell or fade window for Higbee, but maybe that’s just confirmation bias. But the only other players with a similar low-ish target share through three weeks on this list only recently came into the job because of injuries (Mo Alie-Cox and Jimmy Graham.)

Jimmy Graham, TE Chi

Now it’s going to be hard for those who still think tight end can be predicted by team role instead of… you know… players being good. But Graham is still capable, and he’s getting more than enough usage right now. Touchdowns bolstered him in week two but he’s more than “streamable” based on his target role.

Over average roles

Here’s a list of players gaining significantly more target share for their place on the PPG depth chart on their teams.

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Robby Anderson, WR CAR

I headlined DJ Moore earlier, so this only seems fair. Anderson has been impressive so far. But even if you are still on the train, I wouldn’t ignore the fact Moore is the target leader through three weeks.

Mike Davis, RB CAR

Yeah, I don’t know what to tell you, Davis is playing more of the Christian McCaffrey role than (I think) most of us would ever have guessed. And he’s been decent with it too. I’d expect his target share to continue to be fantasy positive moving forward.

N’Keal Harry, WR NE

It’s still Harry szn, by the way. He’s also running about 5 PPG below that of the average player with this level of target share. Part of that is that a large share of a smaller passing game, frankly, leads to fewer targets. But, BUT, according to expected points form rotoviz.com, he could still expect a little more from his role in 2020. Maybe this week against the Chiefs things get crazy? If so, hope you’ve been buying again. I have been since we noted it in week one.

Sorry to cut it shorter this week, but I’m in a time crunch. If you’d like to look into any of this data more I have updated the database I’m using on google sheets here.

If you’d like me to look at any situation, role or player more in these articles please hit me up on Twitter (@pahowdy) or in the comments section below.

Thanks again and good luck in week four.

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Peter Howard

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Peter is a Senior writer for DLF. He live streams about FFL on twitch: twitch.tv/pahowdy as well as hosts the DLF podcast Dynasty Crossroads @DynoCrossroads

UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things

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