Twitter Observations: Lock’ed Up, Devin Down

Michael Moore

To borrow a phrase from my favorite sportscaster of all time, in a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened. We have actual nuggets of training camp rumors and innuendos to glean for our dynasty teams as if a global pandemic never happened. And it never felt so good. Players who can’t hold on to the ball, players returning from injury and everything in between make their triumphant return to fantasy Twitter. Below are a few of the tweets that could affect your dynasty roster as we get closer and closer to the 2020 season.

Lock, Up

You could look at Drew Lock’s rookie debut in one of two ways. During his five-game rookie season, he passed for a little over 1,000 yards, seven touchdowns and only three interceptions. If you were to extrapolate that over 16 games, you’re looking at a full season of 3,264 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just ten interceptions. It’s not setting the world on fire but it’s also promising considering the weapons Lock has been outfitted with this off-season.

But there is another way to look at Lock’s end to the season. After a breakout game of 309 yards and three touchdowns against Houston in week 14, his passing totals went down each game after – 208 the next week, 192 the next and 177 in the finale. He also had just two more touchdowns over those last three weeks.

Dynasty Impact: In one-QB leagues, the risk with Lock is minimal. He was likely taken late in 2019 rookie drafts and has just been chilling on benches and taxi squads. He’s a strong hold in those leagues. And if you’re in the market for Lock, he’d cost you the equivalent of a late-second round rookie pick this year which feels right as its most likely behind 2020 top pick Joe Burrow.

Superflex and 2QB leagues get a little more interesting. According to our newly revamped DLF Trade Analyzer, Lock is worth a mid-to-late first-round pick in 2020 rookie drafts which is still behind Burrow. But in a rookie class such as this, it’s fair to wonder if that price is too high. You’d be choosing Lock over the likes of CeeDee Lamb, JK Dobbins or even Lock’s Denver teammate Jerry Jeudy – all of whom are more intriguing prospects. I might hold off on trying to trade for Lock if you don’t already have him in superflex.

Singletary-d Out

Welp. If you’re a running back, it’s okay if you don’t have the quickest feet or even the best hands but what you can’t do is fumble. It’s literally the most important job any back does and if it starts to happen, teams will address it. Enter the Bills and their contingency plan with Devin Singletary.

It wasn’t that surprising when they drafted another back – Zack Moss – in the third round this year after drafting Singletary in the third last year. For such a run-heavy team, the thought was both players would be fantasy-relevant. After all, in games Singletary started last year (eight), he ran for 631 yards – nearly 80 per game – and did all that while only seeing 20-plus carries three times all season.

A workhorse he was not, which left plenty of touches leftover for Moss. But if Singletary can’t hold on to the ball, the Bills would be less inclined to give him the ball at all.

Dynasty Impact: On the surface, Singletary still looks like a solid dynasty asset. He’s just 22, in the second year of his rookie contract, and still a key runner on a run-heavy team who’s coming off a 5+ yards-per-attempt rookie season. But for all those reasons plus the fumbling issues above, there may never be a better time to move on. Currently, he’s worth a late first-round pick which would be a great return and enable you to get any one of the second-tier rookie backs or receivers in this year’s class.

Zach the Dipper

While several other big-name tight ends made headlines and moved up dynasty rankings this off-season, Zach Ertz was just chilling as a TE1 like he always has been. Even though he saw 100-plus targets for the fifth-straight season, totaled nearly 1,000 yards in 2019 and scored a half dozen times, his dynasty ranking dropped thanks to some new entrants into dynasty rankings.

word image 128

Yet, as the tweet above shows, Ertz is quietly putting together one of the best fantasy careers for a tight end ever.

Dynasty Impact: Many thought Ertz’s days were numbered after the Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert in the second round of the 2018 Draft. Yet, Ertz went on to have three of the best seasons of his career, averaging 92 receptions, 967 yards and seven touchdowns. There is zero reason to expect Ertz’s production to slow down now so if your dynasty team is in win-now mode, it would be well worth it to offer up a late rookie first or early second for the All-Pro tight end.

Pocket Deebo

This is great news not just for the 49ers but for Deebo Samuel dynasty owners. For those who drafted him in the second round of rookie drafts last year, his ROI has been significant and figured to be just as good this year if not better. He finished as a WR2/3 in fantasy scoring and the top receiver on a Super Bowl participant as a rookie. Surely, his sophomore season would have been better with another year in the system and the same support staff in place. Then the injury happened.

Dynasty Impact: Count me as one of those who may have taken the Brandon Aiyuk love a little too far after the Samuel injury. There’s seemingly only room for one 49er receiver to be fantasy-relevant (not counting All-World tight end George Kittle) and the absence of Samuel would have opened the door for Aiyuk. But with this news, it would be foolish for the 49ers to abandon Samuel now after his productive rookie season. If you could buy low on Samuel, currently DLF’s 27th-ranked receiver, now is the time to do it.

michael moore