2021 Draft Outlook for Big Ten Players

On August 11th, the Big Ten presidents from each college voted and the fall football season was cancelled. There is a discussion on the table for a possible spring season, which would affect players considering the NFL Draft. A few schools have even considered playing without a conference. There is a lot of uncertainty only weeks before the season was to begin.

Several players have already opted out and there will likely be more in the upcoming months. I will outline players eligible for the 2021 NFL Draft and what their best course of action may be.

Quarterback

Justin Fields, JR Ohio State

Fields will likely be one of the top five picks in the 2021 draft regardless of what happens over the next few months. He is one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the class. In 2019, he threw for 3,273 yards and 41 touchdowns with only three interceptions. His mobility makes him even more dangerous, as he rushed for 484 yards and ten touchdowns.

Fields has a strong arm and is an accurate passer. He throws well on the run and can fit the ball into tight spaces. Ohio State runs an offense similar to what he may see in the NFL but they do function primarily out of shotgun formations. This could be a deterrent in his game, as the NFL requires more snaps under center. Fields also needs work on his footwork and decision making. At times he took too many sacks trying to extend plays when a throw away would have been wiser.

The Buckeyes had legitimate title aspirations and Fields may take the field and lead the team if it comes to it. A spring season would be difficult and he may not play due to draft preparation. Fields is in a tricky spot but his draft stock is secure regardless of whether or not Ohio State plays.

Tanner Morgan, JR Minnesota

The Golden Gophers were going into the season in a tough spot after budding superstar Rashod Bateman opted out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL Draft. Morgan is not a locked-in prospect and a season would help determine exactly what his draft stock is.

In 2019 he threw for 3,253 yards and 30 touchdowns, with seven interceptions, and completed 66% of his passes. Having two NFL-caliber receivers in Bateman and now-Buccaneer Tyler Johnson certainly helped Morgan look better at times. At times, he looks like he could be a capable NFL quarterback and carve out a starting role. And then at other times he looks like a backup quarterback at best.

This season would have been critical for him and I can’t see him entering the draft at this point. His accuracy is exceptional on most throws, his deep ball lacks at times. Morgan doesn’t have great arm strength but doesn’t try to make throws he can’t often. His footwork is good but he doesn’t avoid sacks often.

Running Back

Journey Brown, JR Penn State

Brown burst onto the scene in the last five games in 2019 due to injuries, rushing for 593 yards and nine touchdowns in those games. He finished the season with 890 yards rushing with an impressive 6.9 yards per carry.

The Nittany Lions boasted one of the richest backfields in the country with five-star Ricky Slade and four-star prospects Noah Cain and Devyn Ford also on the roster. Brown is a three-star prospect per 247 Sports, and is close to a complete back. His vision and instincts are phenomenal. When a hole opens, he finds it and hits top speed in very few steps. He is physical, has great balance, and doesn’t go down easily. Pass-catching has been nearly non-existent and will need to be addressed for him to be an elite running back prospect.

A season would have helped and it’s not guaranteed he will opt into the draft. The small sample size may be enough for some teams. At this time, I project him as being a late second-day pick. Brown will be toting the rock on Sundays. His upside is tremendous and he may opt to not return and compete in a loaded backfield.

Trey Sermon, SR Ohio State

Injuries derailed Sermon during his junior season at Oklahoma and he chose to transfer to Ohio State after the 2019 season. In flashes under Lincoln Riley, Sermon displayed the ability to be a complete back but looked much better as a receiver than runner. Over his first two seasons he rushed for nearly 1,700 yards and scored 18 touchdowns, chipping in over 300 yards on 28 receptions with two more scores via receiving. In three seasons, he averaged 6.1 yards a carry with 339 carries.

The Oklahoma offense did not rely on running backs and was highly proficient through the air – the yards per carry is a bit misleading. Sermon doesn’t have the best vision and doesn’t have explosiveness or wicked cutting ability. He wins via speed and his strength is lacking.

The season would be a huge one for Sermon as far as determining draft stock. Without a season, he would be ill-advised to test the draft waters. He would likely be a day three selection with what we have seen thus far. Another season to prove himself could drastically help his draft stock, but it would also make him an older prospect as a fifth-year senior.

Master Teague, JR Ohio State

Teague was going to be the next man up after JK Dobbins’ departure but tore his Achilles tendon in spring practices. Shortly thereafter, Sermon transferred and it initially looked like Teague may miss most of the season. Rehab has gone amazing and he has been walking without a boot.

Teague was impressive in relief over the past few seasons, rushing for 789 yards and four touchdowns last season. He is a well-built running back and can get his pads down and dish out some hits. The top-end speed isn’t there but sees run lanes well and has good change of direction. Pass-catching has been lacking as well. He could really benefit from more reps to see what he is fully capable of.

I don’t see any way Teague enters the draft and should return in 2021 to show the NFL what he can do. The best case for him would be for Sermon to enter the draft and leave Teague as the most senior tailback for the Buckeyes next season.

Stevie Scott Jr., JR Indiana

The recent draft capital invested in AJ Dillon bodes well for a player like Scott. He is a massive man capable of dealing some punishment while he is carrying the football. Scott has rushed for 1,982 yards over two seasons and has caught 42 passes in his career. The yards per carry on his career is 4.9 yards a tote, an indication of the type of back he is.

At 6’2” and 235 pounds, he’s a back who is tough to bring down and doesn’t mess around at the line of scrimmage. If a hole is there, he’s going to hit it. He has good burst getting to the line but doesn’t have breakaway speed. Leading the Big Ten in receptions as a running back in 2019 is good to see as well. Scott will play in the NFL and another season would be huge for his stock. In this class, I believe he is a day three draft pick but another good season could help immensely.

Elijah Collins, JR Michigan State

The season being cancelled most assuredly will mean Collins will not enter the 2021 Draft. One of the few bright spots for the Spartans in 2019, he rushed for 988 yards and scored five touchdowns. He also caught 15 passes for 99 yards. The numbers don’t look impressive but the Michigan State offense was terrible and opposing defenses were able to focus on shutting down the running game.

Power is the name of his game. He is a strong running with good balance who isn’t brought down easily. He has good vision and sees plays develop but doesn’t possess raw athletic ability and can’t create runs out of nothing. Another season could see more development and improve his draft stock. Collins will likely have a role in the NFL but not in 2021.

Wide Receiver

Rashod Bateman, JR Minnesota

One of the best receiver prospects in the past few years, Bateman was one of the first to opt out of the season. He broke out in 2019 with 60 catches for 1,219 yards and 11 scores. There was not anything left for him to prove on the football field.

Bateman is almost a flawless prospect. He is a good route runner, often winning early in routes and then has great ball tracking skills. His first step is explosive and he separates quickly if he gets behind defensive backs. Mix in solid hands, ability to win every 50-50 ball, and great size at 6’2” and 210 pounds – Bateman has a chance to be a top-ten pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Rondale Moore, JR Purdue

One of the most electric players in college football, Moore missed nearly all of 2019 and had opted out of this season before this week’s cancellation. In 2018, Moore did everything for Purdue and accounted for over 2,100 yards total and scored 14 times while catching passes, returning kicks and punts, and occasionally rushing the ball.

Size is his biggest limitation. Moore is 5’9” and 180 pounds, but his raw speed and elusiveness is ridiculous. Every time he touches the ball, you hold your breath – he makes defenders miss and even has the power to break out of tackles if he is caught. Everything is there with the exception of tape. Only having one year at the college level is less than ideal but still shouldn’t prevent him from being a first-round pick in next year’s draft.

Chris Olave, JR Ohio State

Olave would have greatly benefited from a college season and I don’t see him entering the 2021 Draft without another season. His sophomore season was solid. He caught 48 passes for 480 yards and 12 touchdowns. 2020 was setting up to be his breakout and he was in line to be the top receiver for the Buckeyes.

At 6’1” and 185 pounds, he is a bit slender but there is a lot to like in his game. His route-running is crisp and without wasted movement and it sets him up to create separation at all levels of the route. Olave gets open quickly and has great hands. Ultimately, some bulk and strength could help him overall and allow him to be an outside receiver at the NFL level.

The missed season hurts his chances to enter the NFL Draft next spring and if there is a delayed season, Olave should play but then it may be tough to prepare for the draft. Adding some weight and showing more on tape is critical. If he decides to enter the draft, Ohio State has had recent productive receivers in the NFL with limited college success – Michael Thomas and Terry McLaurin most notably.

Nico Collins, SR Michigan

The Wolverines have suffered from some lackluster quarterback play the past few years and Collins has been one of the most consistent producing wideouts. He tallied nearly identical stat lines the past two years with 37 catches for 729 yards and seven scores in 2019.

Some draft analysts are high on Collins – I believe he is a good receiver but he won’t blow you away with any aspect of his game. Football intelligence is one of his strongest traits as he knows how to read defenses and find holes to get open in. He breaks off the line well and creates separation consistently when running routes. Collins loves to block. He’s a blue-collar player who can be a reliable WR3-type at the NFL level.

As far as what the season means, returning for his senior season in 2021 is an option but he may also be in a situation where he doesn’t have much else to prove in college. Collins won’t put up huge numbers and the quarterback situation hasn’t improved a ton. He could be taken later on day two but more likely is an early day three NFL Draft pick if he enters the draft in April.

Jayden Reed, JR Michigan State

A name I wanted to throw out there who could be a force to reckon with and could have had a big season in 2020 is Reed, a transfer from Western Michigan who sat out 2019 due to ineligibility. He earned freshman All-American honors in 2018 with 56 catches for 797 yards and eight touchdowns.

Reed has the freshman breakout at age 18 on his side and has phenomenal quickness – he gets off the line fast and separates within the first few steps often. He runs solid routes and his movement is so fluid. At 6’1” and 180 pounds, he needs to add size and strength to be successful at the next level. Reed will be playing for the Spartans in 2021 likely and could be a breakout star to keep on your devy radar.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth, JR Penn State

After Micah Parsons opted out of the season, I expected Freiermuth to follow suit and then the season was canceled. He isn’t the sexy tight end prospect like Brevin Jordan or Kyle Pitts, the top two tight ends in the 2021 class. When Penn State needed a big first-down or a touchdown – quarterbacks the past two seasons have looked for Freiermuth first.

The numbers are not overwhelming – only 875 receiving yards on 69 catches for 15 scores over two seasons – but the play on tape is. He moves well for his size and fits the prototypical size at 6’5” and 258 pounds. Linebackers aren’t as fluid as he is and defensive backs don’t have the size to push him around. At times the team lined him out at wide receiver as he is a natural pass-catcher.

Freiermuth should enter the draft in 2021 regardless and likely be an early day-two pick. He will be one of the top dozen tight ends in football for many years. Tight ends with movement like he has which can also block and not be a liability in the run game are rare.

Jeremy Ruckert, JR Ohio State

With only 15 catches for 155 yards and four touchdowns in ten games, Ruckert doesn’t seem like a name belonging on this list. The number two tight end in the 2018 class per 247 Sports, Ohio State has seemingly not made an effort to feature him in their passing game.

Ruckert is incredibly athletic and his moves and routes are more like a wide receiver’s. He creates mismatches off the line and his quickness creates separation while running routes. Blocking and strength are weaknesses in his game. He is likely to play a role at the next level like Evan Engram does for the New York Giants.

There is a good likelihood Ruckert could enter the draft in 2021 without the college production. His situation may not improve much with another season in college. I believe another season could be a good move. Ohio State lost a lot of targets and he would be a steady veteran presence.