Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Anthony McFarland, RB PIT

Stephen Gill Posted On June 27, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Anthony McFarland

Position: Running back

Pro Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

College Team: Maryland

Draft Status: Round four, 124th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’8”
Weight: 208 pounds
Arms: 30 3/8”
Hands: 8 7/8″
40-yard dash: 4.44 seconds
Vertical jump: 29 1/2″
Broad jump: 116”

STRENGTHS

Fluid lateral movement puts him in the position to hit holes as efficiently as possible
Adjusts well to new developments at the line
Strong burst at the line despite pedestrian jumping measurements
Plenty long speed to win downhill footraces
Has the creativity and agility to circumnavigate, or simply shake, would-be tacklers
Impressive downfield vision helps him generate even more yardage in space
Very decisive; makes a bee-line for a hole when he sees it. In turn, he’s often moving faster than everybody else when he sees space
Reasonably thickly built without sacrificing athleticism
Youth — McFarland turned 21 in March and has just 245 college carries of wear and tear

WEAKNESSES

Really needs to refine his running style to adjust to the NFL: Has to become much more patient and in control at the line
Not tiny and doesn’t fold at contact, but he’s small and not especially strong either
Size disadvantage is exacerbated by an upright running style in the trenches
Saw a steep drop-off in production between freshman and sophomore years, rushing for 7.9 yards per carry in 2018 but just 5.4 in 2019

OPPORTUNITIES

In my opinion, James Conner is pretty replaceable, as he’s one of the slowest starting backs in the league, and relatedly, he lacks dynamism in the open field. Also, his contract ends next off-season. Behind him, Benny Snell has similarly little “pop.” Jaylen Samuels is an intriguing piece for the Steelers to weaponize, but he’s never seemed to be a priority in Pittsburgh’s backfield.

Unlike Conner and Snell, Anthony McFarland’s calling card is his play in space. The former two backs are stronger, but today’s spread and pass-heavy NFL has a strong preference for running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara — guys who offer something extra in the passing game, and in the open field in general. Samuels may eat away at McFarland from the other end as the pass-catching specialist, but still, I see McFarland as the Steelers’ best big-play threat.

Overall, McFarland offers more upside to a modern-day NFL offense than any of Pittsburgh’s three veterans. We’ve seen numerous cases of older, replaceable backs being set aside and supplanted by younger, more explosive, and cheaper (or cheap, but for longer) options. McFarland is each of the latter, and if he puts it all together, he offers legitimate value above replacement level in the open field — meaning his job could be safer in a given off-season than that of the average starting RB, in this scenario.

THREATS

On the other hand, Conner, Snell, and Samuels are proven steady hands in the backfield. They are competent, safe choices for a coaching staff that could very well prefer steadiness at the position, instead of inconsistent play with higher highs and lower lows. As mentioned in his weaknesses, McFarland has real work to do in maturing his game for the highest level of play; if his college running style persists, fans will watch him run into offensive lineman’s back several times a game — if he were to make it onto the field at all. McFarland will have to prove that he offers more than a steady stable of backs, which is not a given.

An additional concern with the other backs is that each offers more strength at the position, which means he could definitely lose some tasty goal-line touches to the veterans.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

I expect Pittsburgh’s backfield to be a bit of a confusing mess next year. I’d expect Conner to be the ‘number one,’ but with plenty of rushing attempts going to Snell and McFarland each game. Either or both of the two could very well see many more touches if Conner were to miss time with injury like in 2019. Meanwhile, I’d expect a fairly even split in receiving work between Conner, McFarland, and Samuels. Given the fact that backfield workloads have been quite hard to predict in recent years, and add that to the reality that the Steelers have multiple established backs on the roster beyond McFarland, one shouldn’t expect too much from the rookie this season.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Conner could be out of the picture as soon as 2021. Samuels’s contract expires the off-season after. It’s hard to see Snell fending off McFarland on his own. The opportunity lies in front of McFarland to impress in occasional work this season and use that progress to grab hold of the number one rushing role next season. This relies primarily on his own progression, which will be hard to monitor in-season. But the team’s related personnel moves — what comes of Conner and Samuels, if Pittsburgh signs a fancy back in free agency, how they approach the position in upcoming drafts — will tell you what you need to know, namely how much progress they perceive McFarland to have made.

From a broad view, it should be reasonably easy to see McFarland’s destiny in the NFL from these moves. The Steelers’ efforts to address the position will tell you whether he’ll be locked into a contributing — and not starting — role, whether he can be the guy until they find better, get bored, or want to save money (as we’ve seen with several players recently, such as Marlon Mack, Todd Gurley, and Devonta Freeman), or whether he offers enough value above replacement to be a workhorse for more than a year or two.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

The narrative of “sloppy, over-eager, but extremely explosive running back” immediately reminds of two recent prospects: Darrell Henderson and Marlon Mack. Similar to McFarland, Henderson left Memphis without an ounce of rushing patience in his body, but made up for it pretty well in the college ranks. Meanwhile, Mack was another phenomenal athlete who needed to fine tune his rushing style.

One can choose either of these players and get a strong comparison, but I’ll choose Mack, as I see his rookie-year situation to be pretty similar to McFarland’s. In 2017, Mack was the secondary back, supporting a journeyman Frank Gore. He ran for just 358 yards that year, but with Gore out of the picture, rushed for 908 yards in 2018, and eclipsed 1,000 yards in 2019. This is exactly the career trajectory that you’ll be looking for from McFarland, as I outlined above. The concern, of course, is that even with Mack’s breakout second and third seasons, the Colts were nonetheless encouraged strongly enough to draft Jonathan Taylor this off-season. A similar fate could meet McFarland even if the best-case scenario manifests for him in the immediate coming years.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

McFarland looks like an early third-round pick according to DLF’s most recent rookie ADP. Surrounding him are prospects like Lynn Bowden, Darrynton Evans, Chase Claypool, KJ Hamler, Van Jefferson, and Joshua Kelley. If you ask me, that’s a great price — he currently slots in at 16th in my rankings. Compare him to each of those players: Bowden, Evans, Claypool, Hamler, and arguably Jefferson have far more serious competition for touches ahead of them. Meanwhile, Jefferson and Kelley are JAGs — if you ask me — whereas McFarland offers real upside. (If you disagree, it’d be fine to slot them in next to McFarland.)

CONCLUSION

As my rankings show, I’d be happy to take McFarland as the sixth back to go off the board in the class, after the community’s near-consensus top five. For that reason, I’ve made a point to get him on the cheap where I can. He’s no sure thing, but he offers the productive potential that most backs in this class fail to provide.

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Stephen Gill

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

An aspiring sports executive, Steve hails from Kansas City and currently studies in Montreal. In addition to fantasy and the NFL, he enjoys college football and the NBA. Other interests of his range from video games to hip-hop to online argumentation.