Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Zack Moss, RB BUF
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Zack Moss
Position: Running back
Pro Team: Buffalo Bills
College Team: Utah
Draft Status: Round three, 86th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
https://youtu.be/el3rxn7OJk0
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 222 pounds
- Hands: 9.25”
- 40-yard dash: 4.65 seconds
- Bench press: 19 reps
- Vertical jump: 33.0”
- Broad jump: N/A
- Three-cone: N/A
- 20-yard shuttle: 4.37 seconds
STRENGTHS
- Production
- Profile metrics
- Inexpensive second-round rookie ADP
WEAKNESSES
- Poor athletic testing
- 2018 torn meniscus
- Lack of elite speed
OPPORTUNITIES
Moss compiled 1,800 scrimmage yards during his senior year. His college dominator and target share figures are in the top 20 percent of running back prospects historically, but a subpar performance at the NFL Combine decreased his dynasty value to its current overall ADP of 112.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
He lands in an apparent timeshare with talented second-year back Devin Singletary, a player similar to Moss. Buffalo selected both in the third round just one year apart. Both have impressive college resumes, poor athletic testing, and a stout physical build.
In 2019, Singletary split carries with Frank Gore, who left the Bills this off-season. Quarterback Josh Allen was third in rushing attempts. The Bills feature their running backs in the passing game. Singletary’s 41 targets were just fourth-most on the team. He was the only running back among the team’s top eight targeted players (Gore was ninth with just 16 targets).
Other running backs on the roster include TJ Yeldon, Taiwan Jones, and Antonio Williams.
In 2019, the Bills won ten games and made the playoffs for just the second time in the last 20 years. The franchise is trending up but the offense has room to improve.
With the still-developing 22-year-old Allen at quarterback, the Bills leaned on the run. They ranked sixth in rushing attempts and 28th in pass attempts. They were 30th or worse in total yards, percentage of drives ending in an offensive score, and expected points contributed by the offense.
THREATS
The biggest threat to Moss may be the team’s conservative offense. The Bills attempted the ninth-fewest passes in the league all season. Singletary is young and talented and is the only real competition for carries and targets in the backfield. But in 2019, only two Buffalo players had more than 50 targets (John Brown, 115 and Cole Beasley, 106). The off-season signing of Stefon Diggs (five years, $72 million) may push the running backs even further down the target list.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Moss has a clear path to a timeshare role. For reference, last season Singletary compiled a 151-775-2 rushing line and caught 29-194-2 in a near equal split with Frank Gore. These numbers put Singletary around RB28 in fantasy on a per-game basis (he missed weeks three-five with a hamstring strain). After Buffalo’s week six bye, Singletary was fantasy’s RB18, but is that good or bad for Moss?
Singletary’s full-year production should be the approximate short-term expectation for Moss. The offense could open up as Allen has another year to mature, but Diggs could gobble up an uptick in target volume. Favorable game script could mean more rushes for the two young backs, but the Bills are coming off a ten-win season in which they were already run-heavy. Per-rush efficiency could improve but its effect may not move the needle. The team was 16th in rush yards before contact.
The lack of off-season activities may be detrimental to Moss, as it will for all rookie running backs.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Moss was an impressive college producer but athleticism and landing spot concerns lead to questions about his long-term upside. He will turn 23 years old in December and is roughly two and a half older than some other backs in this class. Situations can quickly change and Moss may very well earn a primary role for the Bills or another team. However, Moss has the profile of a player who will always look over his shoulder to be overtaken by superior talent.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Mockdraftable makes player comparisons based on physical measurables and athletic testing. Its peer group for Moss includes PJ Daniels, Deejay Dallas, Travis Henry and Ka’Deem Carey. From a style perspective, many analysts have compared Moss to the player he joins in the Buffalo backfield, Singletary.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Moss holds a 2.06 average draft position as the seventh running back off the board. He has gone as early as the 1.12 and as late as the 2.11 in the DLF ADP data. In superflex, his ADP is pushed back only one spot to the 2.07 despite the addition of three quarterbacks before him.
Players such as Laviska Shenault, Antonio Gibson, and even Anthony McFarland can be selected just after Moss and possess a more attractive long-term upside.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
