Twitter Observations: Evan Engram, Target Hog?
With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, and dynasty rankings now up-to-date, there’s a lot of re-calibrating needed for several veterans on your dynasty team. There are some vets with high value worth taking advantage of before it starts trending downwards. Others have seen their value go down thanks to the addition of a strong rookie class which makes them a bargain. Examples of both are below as we head into the official start of summer.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Evan-Year Itch
Evan Engram is about to be peppered.
In the six years Jason Garrett actually called plays (2007-12), he dialed up Jason Witten 141, 121, 124, 128, 117, and 149 times.
TE1, TE2, TE5, TE1, TE5, TE3 fantasy finishes
123.5 targets, 92.3 rec, 1018 yard, 5 TD avg
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) May 21, 2020
If new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett does for Evan Engram what he did for Jason Witten, Engram will be back on the fantasy TE1 radar. The triple-digit target numbers are much more in line with what Engram did his rookie season when he saw 115 and was fantasy’s fifth-highest scoring tight end.
A big reason Engram hasn’t seen those numbers again are injuries. Engram managed to play in every game but one that rookie season but has managed to miss 13 over the next two seasons because of injuries. That trend continues, even now, as Engram is still recovering from Lisfranc surgery. The arrival of Garrett certainly bodes well for Engram but it won’t matter if he can’t stay on the field.
Dynasty Impact: For a player with stats that have literally gone down every year, it’s pretty impressive that Engrams’ dynasty ranking has remained the same. After seeing over 100 targets, scoring a half dozen times and finishing as a top-five fantasy tight end his rookie season his totals in receptions, yards and touchdowns have gone down in each subsequent season. This is Engrams career stat-line:
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
Yet his positional dynasty ADP has looked like this:
Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Engram is worth, roughly, a late-round rookie pick this year which would result in Henry Ruggs or Justin Jefferson. In terms of other tight ends, you could swap him for Mark Andrews. In either scenario, I would take the non-Engram option. In both cases you’re getting younger and not nearly the same injury-risk that you’ve had with Engram. Additionally, he’s due a new contract after this season and it’s not a guarantee that he’ll stay with the team that made him a first-round pick and made him a TE1 his rookie season. I would get what you can for Engram before it’s too late.
Luxury Woods
Most yards after catch in last two seasons (WRs)
1. Michael Thomas – 1,091
2. Robert Woods – 1,008
3. Juju Smith-Schuster – 901
4. Davante Adams – 869 pic.twitter.com/IYBhQ3QBYE— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 20, 2020
While Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and JuJu Smith-Schuster would all be considered WR1s in dynasty circles, Robert Woods appears to be the outlier. Woods was a bit of a disappointment after his selection in the second round of the 2013 Draft and failed to top 1,000 receiving yards until his sixth season. Of course, a change in scenery from Buffalo to Los Angeles dramatically improved his fantasy outlook. He’s topped 1,000 yards in each of his last two seasons and, between the injuries to Cooper Kupp and disappearing act of Brandin Cooks, Woods has been the most reliable and productive Rams receiver.
Dynasty Impact: According to our DLF rankers, Woods currently sits as the 32nd-ranked dynasty receiver. The recent influx of rookies certainly pushed down his relative value but Woods is still someone to target. In each of the last two seasons, he’s not only led the team in targets but finished as a top-15 fantasy receiver. There’s literally no reason Woods should be ranked this low except for his early-career numbers being skewed by his time in Buffalo. He’s only 28 and the Rams just traded Cooks away which means the potential for even more targets. Your dynasty team would look pretty good if Woods was your WR3.
Mecole Nine Yards
Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are the only two players with at least six TDs of 30+ yards in a season from 2018-2019
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 19, 2020
It’s ironic, really, that Mecole Hardman, presumably drafted to replace Tyreek Hill after the latter’s career was in jeopardy, joins Hill as the only two on this list. Then again it makes sense since both are insanely fast and have the biggest arm in the league throwing to them. That kind of efficiency was also evident in Hardman’s amazing 20.7 yards-per-reception average that allowed him to total over 500 yards receiving on just 26 receptions!
Dynasty Impact: Stats like this, coupled with the fact that Sammy Watkins is getting financially cheaper by the year, means Hardman’s dynasty value is ascending. He’s already shown to be more efficient than Watkins, scoring twice as many touchdowns (6-3) despite seeing less than half the targets (90-41) and half the receptions (52-26). Hardman also finished with approximately 150 fewer receiving yards despite half the attention.
Hardman is our 45th-ranked dynasty receiver and you can pluck him for a late-first rounder, via the DLF Trade Analyzer. Unlike Evan Engram above, I would spend a late first on Hardman. He’s just as young as some of the rookie receivers in this year’s class, has one year under his belt in the Chiefs offense, and is the youngest of the Kansas City’s top receivers by four years. You may never see Hardman’s dynasty value this low again.
Rams Down
Rams expected to utilize RBBC backfield in 2020 https://t.co/3nN8BXZawN
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) May 21, 2020
Uh oh. While coach-speak is usually in full effect this time of year, it is notable after the Rams released previous workhorse Todd Gurley. It stands to reason that they’d like to go in a different direction after Gurley looked like he broke down. Obviously, this would have an effect on rookie Cam Akers prospects for the 2020 season but his long-term outlook is still solid. No, this is good news for Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown dynasty owners. Akers is a rookie and will have to prove he belongs which means Henderson and Brown will have the first shot at replacing Gurley and, literally, hundreds of carries.
Dynasty Impact: While no one expects either Henderson or Brown to overtake Akers long-term, both would be great insurance policies if you do ultimately end up with Akers in your rookie draft. Henderson is currently DLF’s 40th-ranked running back while Brown is 64th. Henderson can currently be had for an early second-round pick in rookie drafts while Brown can be acquired for a fourth. Obviously, Brown is the cheaper pick but just remember how popular Henderson was last year after being drafted in the third round. His 70th overall draft slot is just 18 picks lower than Akers this year, a little over half a round. Either one would be a good bench player for the cost.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.04 - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Stefon Diggs Moves on - April 14, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: What Next for Brandon Aiyuk? - March 31, 2024
