2020 Rookie Bust Mock: Round Two

The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF and I had a panel join me for our annual ritual. Nathan Powell, James Koutoulas, Kane Fossell, Frank Gruber, and Matt Griffith participated and here is who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP.

In case you missed round one, catch up here. On to round two!

Note: All of these players were within the top 24 of rookie rankings at DLF at the time of drafting.

2.01 Denzel Mims, WR NYJ

Mims had a phenomenal combine, has second-round draft capital, and landed on a team with a need for wide receivers. It seems like the recipe for success. However, “Adam Gase is terrible for fantasy and players such as DeVante Parker, Kenyan Drake, and Ryan Tannehill broke out away from his offensive scheme,” says James.

Gase has been at the helm for a few decent offenses in the past but it has been some time. Hopefully Sam Darnold can lead and take advantage of Mims’ upside but many questions linger.

2.02 Zack Moss, RB BUF

Moss fits the smash-mouth attitude in Buffalo that the defense employs and is a piece the offense has been missing. However, Devin Singletary looked the part of lead back last season and may be featured, relegating the rookie to a complementary role.

Moss was a solid back at Utah who caught passes and carried a heavy workload but Singletary is far more explosive and will not give up the lead role easily. Moss is being drafted in rookie drafts ahead of a bunch of players with clearer paths to playing time.

2.03 AJ Dillon, RB GB

Dillon was the biggest surprise at the NFL Combine. He tested off the charts and the Packers surprisingly took him in the second round. Aaron Jones just had an impressive 2019 and should carry the workload this season, but is not under contract past 2020.

Green Bay’s new back is being drafted as if the backfield will be his after 2020 and is going off the board in the second round of rookie drafts. Despite the impressive physical and athletic traits, there are many questions about how he will translate at the NFL level. Many backs his size have failed, and just few have been productive.

2.04 Chase Claypool, WR PIT

Another impressive combine surprise, Claypool was a third-round pick. He tested as a WR and broke out in his senior season, eclipsing 1,000 yards receiving and scoring 13 times. He has great size at 6’4” but tips the scales at 247 pounds and the size coupled with his game could make him translate better as a move tight end.

The Steelers need more weapons and Claypool is intriguing but a less-than-stellar first three years in South Bend raises many questions.

2.05 Antonio Gibson, RB WAS

Gibson’s selection could have happened much sooner in this mock draft, as there are many questions regarding the young back. On the plus side, his senior season featured over 70 touches as a running back, wide receiver, and returner and over 1,700 total yards with 13 scores. He followed it up with a great combine showing and the Redskins snapped him up in the early third round.

He is versatile but might be better as a running back, and that’s where the Redskins already have Derrius Guice and a host of complementary backs. The athletic profile is impressive but Washington are going to need to be creative to manufacture touches for their rookie back.

2.06 KJ Hamler, WR DEN

The electric playmaker from Penn State was selected midway through the second round and Hamler joins an explosive offense where he will have to fight for touches. The Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy in the first round to join Courtland Sutton as well as early draft pick tight end Noah Fant.

Second-year quarterback Drew Lock has an embarrassment of riches, so where does Hamler fit in with all these weapons? He is a small receiver who could raise all sorts of problems for defenses from the slot but getting touches will always be tough.

2.07 Bryan Edwards, WR LV

At times, Edwards looked like an elite wide receiver prospect, but consistency and lapses in poor production caused a fall in the draft. He was the third wide receiver drafted by the Raiders after Henry Ruggs and Lynn Bowden Jr.

He has the size and athleticism to produce at the NFL level but finding targets will be tricky, with the other two wideouts drafted as well as Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams already on the roster. Edwards could put it all together and justify his rookie draft spot but the risk is there.

2.08 Tee Higgins, WR CIN

Higgins has the second-round draft capital and may get an opportunity early as well. The Bengals selected him with the first pick on the second day of the draft and he will pair with first overall pick Burrow to give Cincinnati a dynamic duo for many years.

Higgins is a tall wide receiver with good moves off the line and elite in contested ball situations downfield. He may have to work in with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd securing spots but he will likely see the field early and playing time will come more often over time.

2.09 Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

The Broncos added Jeudy with the 15th pick of the first round and he should fill a role early for Denver. He is one of the best route runners in the rookie class and is incredibly dangerous after the catch. He has amazing footwork and should become Drew Lock’s best friend quickly and often.

His path to targets is the only question. As I stated above with Hamler, the Denver offense is loaded with weapons, and Jeudy will likely struggle to reach 100 targets.

2.10 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Jefferson is almost like a discount version of Jeudy – he is also a crisp route runner and dangerous after the catch. He enters the NFL in a much better overall situation. Pairing with veteran Adam Thielen, they will form one of the surest duos of wideouts in the NFL for quarterback Kirk Cousins.

It’s tough to envision Jefferson not being successful early in his career and becoming one of the most dependable wide receivers in the NFL for many years.

2.11 JK Dobbins, RB BAL

The former Buckeye back will likely not be much of a fantasy factor in year one but lands on one of the better organizations in the league. Mark Ingram will likely handle most of the workload in 2020 but after this season, Dobbins should take the reins.

He is a physical back who excels in outside-zone running, has great vision, and phenomenal contact balance. He runs with the hard-nosed style which has defined Ravens’ backs for years. Dobbins feels like one of the safest players in rookie drafts.

2.12 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

With the final pick of the Rookie Bust Mock, it is hard to envision Taylor not being a phenomenal fantasy producer on the Indianapolis Colts. They feature a road-paving offensive line and a ton of talent at keys positions on both sides of the ball. The Colts will feed the former Badger and although he may not see many catches, he should produce huge numbers on the ground.

He has good vision and his ability to hit top speed when he gets to daylight is simply amazing. The path to Taylor being a top-five back over the next handful of years seems as clear as the running lanes Quenton Nelson will be creating for him.