Mile High Club: The Impact of Melvin Gordon to the Broncos
In a world filled with angst, panic, anxiety, and a whole host of other feelings at the moment, it’s really comforting when something like Melvin Gordon signing in Denver happens. After all, this Earth just wouldn’t be, well, Earth without some type of running back controversy in Denver.
In short, we are ALL going to be OK. This just proves some things are still normal!
After betting on himself going into the season, Gordon has now settled for a two-year deal with Denver for a modest (at least for him) $16 million and will join a super crowded backfield that at this point will also include Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The move is a surprising one on a lot of levels and throws a major wrench into the value of many players, not just Gordon.
Let’s look at those affected by the move today:
Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
Running back competitions and the Denver Broncos have gone together like social media and insensitive comments since Terrell Davis was in his heyday. In the last 20 seasons, the Broncos have been led in rushing yards for a season by a whole host of players including the likes of Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Selvin Young, Peyton Hillis (he even somehow made a Madden cover), Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, Devontae Booker, and Phillip Lindsay. That list is like a “Who’s Who” of one-year wonders and has been the source of massive frustration for dynasty owners for the better part of the last 20 years.
While times have changed and the Broncos don’t run the same zone blocking system that can apparently a hot dog vendor at Mile High Stadium with a pulse into a household name, Gordon still joins yet another crowded Broncos backfield in 2020. In short, with Lindsay and Royce Freeman still on the roster, this is a mess.
Let’s start with Gordon.
To say his career has been filled with ups and downs would be an understatement. Gordon was disappointing as a rookie as he posted just 641 rushing yards for the Chargers and didn’t score a single touchdown in his first year. Since then, Gordon has scored 36 rushing touchdowns and caught 191 passes with 11 more receiving touchdowns, but is also notorious for strange spurts of total ineptitude and other periods where he can single-handedly win games for you. He held out at the beginning of last season in hopes of a new contract, but he really cost himself as Austin Ekeler stepped into the starting role in Los Angeles and made his return not quite so important. In fact, it’s been widely reported Gordon turned down $10 million annually from the Chargers and had to settle for less in Denver.
Gordon was awful in the first half of the season last year as he averaged less than three yards per carry and notoriously fumbled away a game. His second half was much better, but it obviously wasn’t enough to merit a bigger contract on the open market. Perhaps the Broncos are the big winners here, but time will tell. What we can deduce is Gordon obviously didn’t have the market he expected.
In Denver, he should slot in as the starter, but there’s really no way Lindsay is anything less than a 1B to Gordon’s 1A status. In short, this signing has all the looks of an addition that’s far better in reality than it is in fantasy. Gordon is currently our RB14 with an ADP of 35. It’s hard to see that doing anything but continuing to subtly go down as he moves into a committee backfield in Denver. On the plus side, this could extend his career a bit.
Phillip Lindsay, RB DEN
This is one of the first major buzzkills to the off-season. Lindsay has been simply fantastic the past two years as he’s posted 2,048 rushing yards on nearly five yards a carry as an undrafted free agent, severely outplaying former third round pick Royce Freeman in process. The challenge with Lindsay is the fact he’s only received more than 20 carries in a game one time in his 31 contests, showing the Broncos don’t really believe the 5’8″ 190 pound dynamo could really hold up as being the bellcow in an offense. With Gordon in town, the 132 carries Royce Freeman had will surely be soaked up, but the 224 Lindsay had are also sure to decrease. While this isn’t a death blow to his value, being a committee back is likely his ceiling, at least for the next couple of seasons. His ADP of 86, ranking of 75 and status as our RB28 are all likely going to fall substantially after this move. However, if you’re not a fan of Gordon, this could create a nice buy-low window for you.
Royce Freeman, RB DEN
Uh oh.
A lot of dynasty owners spent a late first or early second round draft pick on Freeman two years ago and at this point it’s looking like a pretty bad investment. Freeman has had his fair share of hype over the past two seasons but the fact is Lindsay has just simply been better. Owners of Freeman have to hope the Broncos are willing to move Freeman for a late round draft pick to a running back needy team. His tape isn’t bad as he’s rushed for over 1,000 total yards on nearly four yards per carry, so teams like Tampa Bay, the Rams or even the Chiefs could kick the tires here, but Freeman’s dynasty value is on some serious life support at the moment. If he’s not moved (and the Broncos are in no hurry since he’s on his rookie contract), it’s hard to see him having much short-term value. As such, his ADP of 157, ranking of RB46 and overall ranking of 111 have little chance to improve any time soon.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
