Truth About Running Backs: AFC South
The most important and valuable position in fantasy football is running back, even after years of NFL teams devaluing specific backs once they realized how replaceable they are and what similar production comes from different players.
Their fantasy value comes from the fact that a small number of backs are given hugely valuable roles where they see very high volumes. These backs stand out against the vast mass of the league where volume is split across multiple players.
The key of course is identifying the valuable ones. Lots of theories and processes float about concerning which backs do what. Many of them are entirely mistaken or built on confusion, lies and untruths.
This series of articles is an attempt to shine a light on how various teams really do use their backs and what we can surmise about them going forwards.
Houston Texans
The Texans under Bill O’Brien have fairly consistently used multiple backs in similar ways. That changed a little in 2019 when they acquired Duke Johnson.
Plenty of commentators thought that Johnson might be used as he was in college when he was a do-it-all back renowned for running between the tackles even with his smaller frame.
But in reality, Johnson was still used as a third down/receiving back.
As you can see in the chart there was a clear split between Carlos Hyde and Johnson in rushing/passing volume. Johnson also had an iron grip on later-down targets.
As much as fantasy owners might not like it, Johnson is a receiving back in Houston – just as he was in Cleveland. He did more as a college back but that’s a few different NFL coaching staffs that have not believed he could be effective as an early down back. On the plus side it does mean he can likely stay relevant and effective longer. He’ll be 27 early next season which is well past best for most backs.
Indianapolis Colts
Marlon Mack went over 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career in 2019. He was an RB2 for the season just as he was in 2018. Lots of fantasy voices think he can push on and continue to grow and improve.
The problem with that is that the Colts seem to not see Mack as a receiving option.
As you can see, all three of the Colts’ other backs were used more comparatively as receivers than Mack. The same was true in 2018, as illustrated in the next chart.
This does not mean Mack is a bad fantasy option (he’s been a top-24 back two years straight of course), but his potential is capped given how his team uses him (or more truthfully does not use him) in the passing game.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette is a fascinating case. He was drafted super high in both NFL and dynasty terms and it took his poor second year as a pro for owners to realize he had some serious weaknesses in his game.
Then in 2019 everything changed.
He was an elite back in volume terms, but his touchdown rate let him down – and somehow he managed to turn into a high-volume receiver who plays on late downs.
As you can see here, that meant he turned into that rarest of all things – a bellcow back. My definition of that is that a back must play 75% of his team’s offensive snaps, handle 75% of running back carries and receive 75% of running back targets. Fournette was one of just two players to do that this season alongside Christian McCaffrey.
You can see it even better in this chart:
Fournette had 95 targets this season after totaling just 68 combined in his first two seasons. Only three other backs had more targets than him this year. This is just a staggering turnaround.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry is one of the most divisive fantasy assets of recent years. He obviously had an amazing 2019 and many think he’s set to cash in as a free agent and continue his dominance into 2020.
Here are a couple of charts that might shine some light on whether he can do that:
Henry saw over 95% of his usage on early downs. This is comfortably the highest for any of the major backs in 2019. And it’s been true of his whole professional career. The Titans absolutely do not see him as a third down weapon.
Similarly, Henry saw over 90% of his usage in the running game. Again. this places him among the highest of all major backs in 2019.
Neither of these things was a problem in 2019, but it does mean that, unless something changes in 2020, we should expect a hit to Henry’s usage. It’s simply unlikely that he continues to get such a high workload as a back who is not used on third down and receives low target volume.
If he lands with one of the teams with most cap space (Tampa Bay, Miami, Washington, Buffalo or New York Giants, it would be surprising to not see him lose a lot of what made him so effective in 2019.
If he re-signs as a Titan, we’re hoping the team stays as good, which requires that Ryan Tannehill somehow maintain his amazing 2019 play.
Now you’ve got a little bit more information on how some of the backs in the AFC South were actually used in 2019, and you can use that information to make better decisions about how they’ll be used in the future.
Good luck.
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