Twitter Observations: The Calm Before the Rookie Storm
This time of year can be slow, even for year-round dynasty leagues. We’re on the cusp of rookie combine action, free agency and all the machinations of the NFL off-season that go into building our dynasty teams. But it’s also a good time to take stock in what we already have and what we need. Without game action to distract us from the task of actually building a team, we can take our time and come up with a plan for 2020.
To that end, the tweets and players below will all factor into that and should be used as tools to point you in the right direction.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a re-draft slant to it but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Super Charged
Austin Ekeler
In 2019:
• Among 25 Players with 200 or ^ Touches Ekeler Ranked 1️⃣st in Broken Tackles/Touch % (27.7%)
• 2️⃣nd in Broken Tackles on Receptions (28, Behind ONLY CMC) pic.twitter.com/Oj6TIr8ybT
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) February 13, 2020
While the Chargers – and the fantasy world – waited out Melvin Gordon’s holdout last season, Austin Ekeler established himself as a highly valuable real world and fantasy asset.
Not only did he top 120 total yards in three of the four games Gordon missed, but he was also fantasy’s fifth-highest scoring running back without Gordon.
He was one of the few backs last season to record a 100-yard rushing game and 100-yard receiving game. As the efficiency stats above indicate, he’s also a missed tackle monster. And it’s not like those stats, using percentages instead of total numbers, were compiled using a small sample size. He did it after recording 240 touches which was exactly 50% more than he had the previous season.
With Gordon likely gone after his hold out failed to land a new deal, the job in Los Angeles is Ekeler’s to lose.
Dynasty Impact: Ekeler is a restricted free agent. It’s certainly not a guarantee that he’ll be back with the Chargers, but with the team already moving on from quarterback Philip Rivers they’d be wise to keep Ekeler as a reliable tool for whomever the quarterback is in 2020.
He also proved to be committee-proof, finishing as a top ten fantasy back over the course of the entire season both with and without Gordon. All of that indicates he’ll easily be worth his positional ADP, currently in the top-20 and a far cry from where it was a year ago. If anything, it may be too late to get him that value as he continues to trend upward.
Broken Wings
When Devonta Freeman gets cut people are going to be shocked.
Not realising he hasn't been good for quite some time now…— T͓̽o͓̽m͓̽ ͓̽K͓̽i͓̽s͓̽l͓̽i͓̽n͓̽g͓̽b͓̽u͓̽r͓̽y͓̽ (@TomKislingbury) February 15, 2020
Devonta Freeman owners had a good run. During the three-year period between 2015-2017, Freeman was a bona fide RB1 in fantasy scoring, even being the RB1 one of those seasons (2015). The former fourth-round pick had multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons, multiple double-digit scoring seasons and topped 1,000 total yards in each of them.
The beginning of the end could be traced to when former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left after the 2016 season to take the head job in San Francisco. Under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Freeman’s rushing yards-per-game was the lowest it had been in three seasons while his targets and receptions-per-game also took a dip. Worse yet, Freeman saw action in just two games in 2018 due to multiple lower-body injuries.
The final straw was 2019, as Freeman not only played under a new offensive coordinator (this time Dirk Koetter), but saw any fantasy value he once had take a nosedive. His receiving totals were just fine, seeing 70 targets for 59 receptions and 410 yards, but his rushing totals were hold-your-nose bad after averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry and less than 50 yards-per-game. He still finished as a low-end RB2 in fantasy scoring but it’s a far cry from what he used to be.
Dynasty Impact: It doesn’t look good for Freeman owners this off-season. Not only has his performance declined dramatically but he’s entering his age-28 season. His current price tag doesn’t help matters and he’s a good candidate to be cut in order for Atlanta clear some cap space.
Usually, running backs relocating are not good for dynasty value, but this may provide a small boost to Freeman’s. He’s (rightly) 38th in our dynasty running back rankings and might benefit to go to a team that wants him while hopefully playing under a better offensive coordinator. Freeman proved to be effective in the right scheme, but he can’t overcome the wrong one by himself.
I would look to sell if you can, especially considering the influx of running back talent in this upcoming rookie class.
Road Age
Most Games Played In NFL History ( Non QB/K/P):
1. Jerry Rice – 303
2. Bruce Matthews – 296
3. Darrell Green – 295
4. Jim Marshall – 282
5. Trey Junkin – 281
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20. Jason Witten – 255
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23. Larry Fitzgerald – 250Career longevity might be different now.
— Russell Clay (@RussellJClay) February 15, 2020
Most dynasty players know they can’t have TOO old of a roster. As the seasons add up, there are too few years left on a players career and the end is much more abrupt. Larry Fitzgerald is certainly an exception to this rule, after confirming he’ll be back for his age-37 season. He’s been extremely healthy – a product of luck and skill – missing just six games in his entire 16-year career. And while it’s been over two seasons since his last 1,000-yard campaign, he’s still expected to contribute to the high-powered Cardinal offense.
But this tweet isn’t just about Larry Fitzgerald; it’s about older veterans in general. Just glancing at our dynasty receiver rankings, for example, you’ll see just four receivers 30 or older – literally 8%. It’s a young man’s game, now more than ever.
Dynasty Impact: The four 30-year-old receivers remaining in the top-50 of our rankings – Julio Jones, TY Hilton, AJ Green, and Julian Edelman – should all be under consideration to be moved off your dynasty team. Green missed the entire season in 2019, while the rest of the group saw declines in yards-per-game and yards-per-reception. Hilton’s decline was especially dramatic after seeing his yards-per-reception drop by more than five yards.
All four, plus Fitzgerald, were great players, but if you’re thinking ahead for your dynasty team, I would be looking to move them now before it’s too late.
Back Those Picks Up
February Rookie ADP is out on @DLFootball, so it's time for my favorite offseason visualization. Based on the 10 mock drafts, here's the percentage chance each 1st round rookie is available at each draft spot pic.twitter.com/274eutB1Yx
— Michael Zingone (@FFzinger) February 16, 2020
If your dynasty team is one of those with an aging veteran running back (Devonta Freeman) or one that will be changing teams soon (Gordon), worry not as there is help on the way in the form of rookie picks. As the data above indicates, running backs are currently being taken with the first three picks in 1QB rookie drafts, and five of the first seven. If this trend continues, this draft will be the most top-heavy with running backs since 2017.
Dynasty Impact: There are several types of dynasty teams that could benefit from a running back-heavy rookie class. Maybe you have a high rookie pick and can dangle that to a team with a stud receiver? Or you might have a stud running back now but are looking to rebuild with a younger back while stock piling more picks? The point is: 2020 would be a very good year to hit the reset button on your running back depth, no matter how good or bad it is.
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