20/20: Bryan Edwards
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name – Bryan Edwards
2.) College – South Carolina Gamecocks
3.) Height/Weight – 6’3″, 215 pounds (supposedly)
4.) Birthdate – 11/13/1998 (21 years old)
5.) Class – Senior
6.) Basic college stats:
Basic? Basic Stats? DLF, you’re really cramping my style here. Okay, here it is: Bryan Edwards is just about the youngest senior you’ll ever find. He technically played his first college season at the age of 17, which we call 18, because we don’t have a box for playing at 17. That’s why he has a breakout age (more than 20 percent of the team’s receiving yards and touchdowns) of 18. He broke out producing 27% of the teams receiving touchdowns and yards in that first year.
In total he had 3,045 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns in four years of dominance. Outside of the extra year and coming out as a senior being slight negatives, he was a very productive player in college with well above average competition for opportunity. You love to see it.
7.) NFL Draft round projection – the combine is heavily weighted by NFL teams and we don’t know how that will shake out yet. However, according to the Bleacher Report mock draft, 247sport and every other mock I can find, he’s more likely a third round pick.
8.) Current NFL comparison – This is a tough one from my perspective since I heavily favor analytics in player evaluation. With projected third-round draft capital, one of the best NFL comparisons I see is Kenny Golladay. But Golladay played in an “easier” conference on a weaker team with less competition and no NFL-level wide receivers to help or hurt him. Mike Wallace or Brandon LaFell seem fair since they played in the SEC and had relatively similar production careers, but moving to the second round, my favorite comp is Alshon Jeffrey.
9.) Best possible destination – I know we always want open depth charts and great quarterbacks for our rookie wide receivers, but that’s usually not in the cards for most. Edwards is going to need to beat out someone no matter where he lands, even if that someone isn’t a top-24 nasty player. Miami and Cincinnati may also be looking to build around new quarterbacks, so it’s a possibility.
If we’re talking best possible destination, however, I’d hope for Baltimore. He offers something different and/or complimentary to their current team make up and I think he could thrive in that situation.
10.) Worst possible destination – The Bills.
11.) Best current skill – A demonstrated ability to go toe-to-toe with NFL level talent and earn his own significant role. I know you probably want me to talk about his routes or off-the-line ability here. But I don’t care. Whatever he has – and how he plays – is good enough that with Deebo Samuel on the team he was still productive.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – I do pay attention to what we can see on tape. Based on what I’ve read and spoken about with evaluators, Edwards sounds like a player who has excelled with talent more than developing skill. He has the elements, but I’m not sure he’s had to refine them to a complete skill set. He is going to need to use tools he’s not had to rely on before more often, especially as a player some evaluators ding for not looking like an “elite” level athlete on the field.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP – No rookie ADP has been established yet, however he’s ranked 16th according to DLF’s rookie rankings, and the eleventh wide receiver off the board. But I think there’s going to be someone ready to take him in the early second in a lot of dynasty rookie drafts if the NFL Draft goes his way at all.
14.) Projected dynasty value – only about 31 percent of top-12 rookie wide receivers increase in value into their second year (their first off-season in the NFL). That’s the lowest percentage of any offensive skill position going into year two.
As we know, most wide receivers do very little in their first year, and those who do something are more likely to do more, and therefore increase in value. Edwards’s isn’t even predicted to go in the top-12, so the percentage is more like 28 percent. Ultimately, wide receiver levels out as the years go on until the position class, by year three, is in fact the only group to maintain above 20 percent of players increasing in value from their rookie season. We can expect that pattern to play for 2020 as well.
Coming off a hot breakout season for 2018 sophomore players and impressive first seasons for the 2019 class, I’d normally expect rookies to see a bump in ADP, but it was a disappointing year for wide receivers at the top which could counter the trend. Ultimately, Edwards’s value is more likely to be a second-round pick a year from now then anything else.
15.) Massive market share – He had over 20 percent of his team’s receiving yards in every season he played and, again, was actually a bigger part of the team’s offense then second-round pick Samuel was when Samuel wasn’t there – at a younger age.
16.) Better then Alshon by three yards – Edwards, as South Carolina’s leading receiver, had exactly three more receiving yards (3,045) for the team than Jeffrey (3,042.)
17.) Younger than a junior – Despite being part of the senior class, he is actually a month younger then Laviska Shenault, another interesting prospect from this year’s class, and a junior having played only three years at Colorado in the Pac-12.
18.) The SEC on a hot streak – three players from the SEC over the last two draft classes have already had at least one top-24 season in the NFL; DJ Chark, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley. In fact, since 2003 there have only been five draft classes from which an SEC player has not broken out with a top-24 season.
19.) 33 percent of similar wideouts drafted in third round breakout – The last player dinged as a “non-elite” athlete drafted in the third round with an age 18 break out age was Keenan Allen.
20.) Production from the get go – In Bryan Edwards’ first game he caught eight passes for 101 yards against Vanderbilt. He topped over 100 yards eight times, out of 48 games, and had at least one reception in each game he ever played in.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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