2019 IDP Projection Review: NFC East
All through the off-season we work to give DLF readers an edge in their dynasty leagues. That’s useless unless we can prove we’re OK at actually making decent predictions. This series looks back through our final pre-season projections and sees how good or bad they were.
Dallas Cowboys
Maliek Collins’ inefficiency was helpful here. He created far more pressure than projected but because he converted few of them into his sacks his numbers ended up fairly accurate. Unfortunately, Antwaun Woods created almost no pressure which made him much less accurate.
At DE the Cowboys sprang a surprise by rotating players far more than expected. Giving Demarcus Lawrence such a low snap count after paying him so much money was an interesting strategy. As a result, his sacks were way short even though his tackle numbers were good. The rest of the hierarchy was off too. Robert Quinn played a lot, which meant he smashed his predictions. Note the discrepancy between him and Lawrence in pressures/sacks. Quinn was not as good as people think he was.
Jaylon Smith managed to stay healthier than expected so he came in a bit above prediction, but Leighton Vander Esch was much more injured and didn’t get close to his.
At corner Byron Jones was a bit under with Chidobe Awuzie a bit over.
And finally, at safety Jeff Heath missed his targets as he missed more time than expected. Xavier Woods was a good projection and finished close in most stats but was a poor IDP option.
New York Giants
What a mess of a team. Very little functioned well on this defense all year beyond the mass of large men on the line of scrimmage. It’ll be fascinating to see how the new coaching staff changes things.
The linemen (Dalvin Tomlinson, Dexter Lawrence and B.J. Hill) were all good projections. Their solos were all within three and their sacks within two. Pressures were close too. Leonard Williams was added in-season here and complicated things, but it goes down as a good unit.
Alec Ogletree was the one useful linebacker. He was eight solos and four assists short, but close or bang on for all other stats.
Tae Davis was predicted to be the second LB. This proved hilariously wide of the mark as he was a huge disappointment. Ryan Connelly showed some promise, but was injured early on and could not capitalize. Aside from Ogletree, there is nothing here to be pleased with.
On the edge the Markus Golden was the top option. Even so he played far more than expected and delivered on that volume. His solos were more than twice the target and his sacks nearly as much. He goes down as a miss. Lorenzo Carter was in the right ballpark, but Kareem Martin was a big miss in the other direction. He did virtually nothing. Lastly, Oshane Ximines was more productive than expected. This was a poor unit.
Corner was much better though. Janoris Jenkins, Deandre Baker and Julian Love finished just a handful of tackles away from predictions. PDs and interceptions were a bit less accurate, but that’s to be expected. It was a good position.
Jabrill Peppers repaid faith in him by having a breakout season prior to his injury. He finishes close to his target numbers.
Somehow Antoine Bethea played 1,107 snaps which was not expected at all. Obviously, he over-delivered across the board. It shouldn’t be possible for a man as old as him to play that much!
Philadelphia Eagles
Fletcher Cox goes down as a success. He was just 24 snaps and three solos out with perfect assists. His sacks were short with just four (against eight predicted), but that was due to conversion rate. Sadly, Malik Jackson never came close to being able to hit his numbers. Timmy Jernigan and Hassan Ridgeway were better but not IDP options.
All of the edge rushers were good predictions though. Every player was within four solos and two sacks of target.
The LBs were a disappointing group with none of them effective IDPs. Nigel Bradham was injured a lot and came in very low. His natural inefficiency did not help either. None of the others were close enough to warrant discussion. It was a bad unit.
The corners go down as an average group. There were no disasters from a projection point of view, but they were also not that good. Avonte Maddox was closest but that wasn’t really helpful.
Malcolm Jenkins was much closer at safety. He was bang on for solos and close across the board bar his lack of picks. Similarly, Rodney McLeod was just five solos and five assists away and accurate across the board.
Washington Redskins
Tackle Da’Ron Payne had another extremely productive season. He’s proved a bit of a model-breaker so far in his career. His 42 solos smashed his target even if most other numbers were close.
Matt Ioannidis and Jonathan Allen were similarly impressive. Under Jay Gruden linemen have been very unproductive, but this year was a real departure. The result: a big miss for this model.
LBs were hit-and-miss. Jon Bostic was close across the board, but Shaun Dion Hamilton and Cole Holcomb were placed in the wrong order. If they’d been swapped, they would have been good predictions, but they weren’t.
The edge rusher also saw one good and one bad. Ryan Kerrigan was disappointing after a long and reliable career and came in low as a result. Montez Sweat was much closer. He was seven solos and two sacks out, but his assists were perfect and his pressure very close.
The two main outside corners were a little under-cooked. Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar both finished double digits short in solos.
And lastly Landon Collins was . . . Landon Collins. He destroyed his solos prediction with an extra 27, and also managed to beat assists by eight. He’s such a high tackle volume player he’s tough to model, but that projection could have been better.
Thanks for reading.
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