2019 IDP Projections: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Buccaneers are one of just three defenses not selected in at least 5% of team defense drafts over the past two months. This tells you exactly what you need to know about the public’s confidence in the team.
However, this seems a little unfair. Todd Bowles is now in charge of the unit and although the roster is not what you’d want it to be, Coach Bowles has produced well with limited talent before.
His 2013 Cardinals defense was a great example. Karlos Dansby was a star at linebacker even though he was 32 years old. Yeremiah Bell had a great year at safety, Tyrann Mathieu burst onto the scene and John Abraham and Calais Campbell managed over 20 sacks between them.
It will be a serious surprise if Bowles does get this defense back towards the middle of the pack.
Defensive interior
Both ends and tackles are lumped together here because it’s pretty unclear who will man which role. Given Todd Bowles’ history, expecting a fairly deep rotation of similar, large men is smart. Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea certainly have the most name status, but the other players will get some time too. Rakeem Nunez-Roches has certainly been getting camp hype so far.
Inside linebacker
Devin White is walking into an excellent spot here with an immediate opportunity to produce. But Lavonte David’s presence is certainly a consideration. Plus, even though 2018 was amazing, most of the time rookie LBs need time to adapt to the NFL.
David’s ranking here will surprise some people too. It’s more to do with scheme than it is him. He could easily be very good but expecting LB2/3 production is more sensible than elite numbers.
Outside linebacker
The most worrying part of this roster is the edge rushers. Shaq Barrett is a fine player (even though he never quite caught fire in Denver), Carl Nassib has been playing well in camp and Jason Pierre-Paul showed he still has something left (injury depending). Anthony Nelson is talented but raw and will need time to adapt.
After that, though, it gets speculative. William Gholston is just a guy and may not make the team. Noah Spence doesn’t even make it onto the list.
Realistically this is not a great unit even though most of the individuals have the capacity to have good games.
Cornerback
This is the hardest unit to predict on the team – but also the most interesting. Bowles has a history of production from his defensive backs and the slot, in particular, is a key role in this scheme.
M.J. Stewart could play the role. Vernon Hargreaves has played in the slot (and seriously underperformed at outside corner). Ryan Smith has a shot too.
The team has drafted three second-rounders and one third-round corner in the last two drafts., not to mention Vernon Hargreaves in the first round in 2016. Predicting how this position shakes out is going to require a lot of luck.
Safety
Safety is also hard to predict and has received substantial investment in picks. Justin Evans was selected 50th overall in 2017, Jordan Whitehead 117th in 2018 and Mike Edwards 99th earlier this year.
Justin Evans has the clearest role given he’s a natural deep safety. He can be IDP-relevant with enough volume, but he has a capped ceiling.
The other safety role is more interesting. Jordan Whitehead played fairly averagely down the stretch last season but was very efficient as an IDP (his tackle efficiency was over 11%), Kentrell Brice has disappointed his entire career and is likely just depth. The most interesting option is Mike Edwards. His nickname among college teammates was Honey Badger and he’s on record as saying that’s who he models his game on. That is extremely interesting given Todd Bowles’ presence.
Stud – Devin White, LB and/or Lavonte David, LB
In these projections, both of these players come out low. But they’ve both got the talent to perform far, far better. The model works on past production and coaching scheme but sometimes you just have to have faith. The difference between their tackle numbers (in the 70s) and elite numbers is only a tackle per game and it would be no surprise for either of them to be exceptional.
Disappointment – Devin White, LB and/or Lavonte David, LB
Equally, expecting top IDP stats just because David has done it before and White has the draft capital is a little optimistic. It would also be zero surprise for either or both of these players to finish outside the top 30 LBs.
Darkhorse – Mike Edwards, S (or any other nickel back candidate)
If Edwards can win the Honey Badger role, he has the chance to be a seriously impressive player. Equally, there are several other candidates listed above. This is a key situation to watch.
Summary
The Bucs seem to be on the right track but there’s a long way to go before they recreate their elite defenses from the start of this century. This year should see them at least get some clarity at the edge rusher and defensive back positions. Ultimately Todd Bowles is a top defensive coach and should do an excellent job – but this is still a roster lacking consistency and top class. It’ll be fascinating to watch Bowles scheme and coach his way to pressure.
Thanks for reading.
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