2019 Summer Sleeper: Miami Dolphins
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
I don’t think there’s a sadder team in the NFL right now than the Miami Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill, their starting quarterback since 2012, was jettisoned in a trade to Tennessee as a backup to Marcus Mariota. Adam Gase was fired after a dismal 7-9 season, which was one wild play vs the Patriots away from keeping them at 6-10.
In come Brian Flores and Chad O’Shea, former New England Patriots coaches, to take over as head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively. Being Belichick disciples, I believe things will run similarly in Miami as they did in New England, in that Flores will allow O’Shea to call plays for the offense.
O’Shea is a former division one quarterback who transitioned to coach right out of college. For the past 13 years, he’s been the wide receivers coach in both Minnesota and New England. His units have put up some eye-popping numbers in that span, especially in the slot with mainstay slot receivers such as Deion Branch, Wes Welker, and Julian Edelman.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen take over at the quarterback position for Miami. Word is that Fitzpatrick is leading Josh Rosen out of the gate, and Rosen is no threat to compete for the starting job year one. Fitzpatrick likely assumes the starting role in Miami.
On defense, the Dolphins traded their top defensive lineman in totals sacks, Robert Quinn, to the Dallas Cowboys after the season. They also lost DE Cameron Wake and did very little to add anyone significant to the roster to replace either of these guys.
What does all this mean? Given the state of this roster and depleted defensive unit, I believe the Dolphins are a five or six-win team this season. They will find themselves down several games and will pass the ball often, which brings us back to the quarterback.
In his 14 years in the NFL, nobody has targeted slot wide receivers more than Ryan Fitzpatrick. According to Pro Football Focus, Fitzpatrick has targeted the slot on 26.4% of his attempts, which not only is the highest rate in the league, it destroys the league average of 19.9%.
So let’s put this all together. The Dolphins got worse on defense, will need to throw the ball more, have an offensive coordinator who spent his career as a wide receivers coach, specifically focusing on the short passing game, and have a new quarterback who loves to throw the ball to the slot.
The 2019 sleeper on the Miami Dolphins is…
Albert Wilson, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
This is a little bit different. Everyone knows who Albert Wilson is, but with an ADP that puts him behind Zay Jones and Jason Witten, I think Wilson could be perhaps the greatest bargain in fantasy football today.
Wilson has a prototypical slot WR size and boasts a 4.43-second 40-yard dash. Prior to a hip injury in week seven that put him on IR in 2018, Wilson was on pace for 61 catches, 957 yards, and ten touchdowns, which would have placed him inside the top 20 for all WRs in fantasy. Given that the Dolphins ran the fewest offensive plays in 2018, the statistic above is even more impressive.
He started on the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia State. When he became a free agent, he was highly sought after before signing a three-year deal for $24 million, which means he’s being paid to perform. Wilson is currently in his prime age for a wide receiver, but there’s even more to love about this player.
Wilson is as elusive as he is fast. Last season alone, he managed 335 YAC (yards after the catch) on just 26 receptions. That averages out to 12.88 YAC per reception, a rate that would place him first in the NFL among all qualified WRs in 2018.
And as fellow DLF writer Eric Moody already pointed out, Wilson was leading the league in fantasy points per pass route in 2018 prior to his injury.
Fantasy Points Per Pass Route (2018)
1. Albert Wilson: 0.78
2. Nuk Hopkins: 0.69
3. Tyreek Hill: 0.66
4. Michael Thomas: 0.65
5. Julio Jones: 0.64
6. Keenan Allen: 0.61
7. Tyler Lockett: 0.61
8. Cooper Kupp: 0.6
9. Davante Adams: 0.6
10. W. Fuller: 0.59
Source: @rotounderworld pic.twitter.com/5FTses7ZCD— Moody (@EricNMoody) April 10, 2019
The one big downside with Wilson is, of course, related to the season-ending injury he suffered last season. It was diagnosed as a hip sprain, and not only ended his 2018 campaign, but also kept him from practicing at full speed this off-season so far, and perhaps even into training camp.
The fact that the Dolphins did not sign any free agents nor address the position through the draft, however, suggests that they feel confident he will be ready to go when the season rolls around.
Given his upside and low ADP, I figure Albert Wilson to be a cheap commodity for all fantasy owners to look into obtaining prior to the season starting.
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