Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Six
Welcome back to our target share article. Last week we looked at opportunity share from a buy/sell perspective in dynasty. This week, I want to focus more on consistency as I run through roles and how well they have stabilized through six weeks. Let’s take a look at players whose opportunities have become consistent and whose roles seems to be ebbing.
Consistency in production in fantasy football is mostly a myth. Even the most heavily used and valued dynasty players see their week-to-week numbers fluctuate. A string of consistent opportunity or production games is usually a sign that a drop off is due, rather than evidence the player has become more stable. However, when we look at percentages in targets and snaps, we can see who’s role, at least, has been solidified or fallen.
So, let’s dig in.
Cow Score
My “Cow Score” is a weighted average of target and snap percentages for running backs. In 2019, only four running backs cross what I consider to be the threshold of a “workhorse” or “Bell Cow” role at the running back position (over 50% of team opportunity): Christian McCaffrey, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, and David Johnson.
The “Stability” metric on the right is actually the coefficient of variation. For running backs it uses snap percentage. For other positions, it uses target percentage. The lower the percentage, the less variance and therefore the more consistent their usage has been.
As you can see, the top 12 running backs in opportunity have been fairly stable in their usage – as we should expect. However, we can also see that there are drop-offs.
David Johnson, RB ARI
His “Bell Cow” role has been less consistent than the other four at the top. We should likely expect him to suffer from game script more than the others.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
His role is more prone to variance as well. We saw this in week six when Latavius Murray saw an 11 percent bump in snaps.
Chris Carson, RB SEA
He has had a higher variance than most with this opportunity. But it can likely be explained by the swings in injuries he’s experienced around him and his momentary loss of opportunity after some fumbles. I expect this will stabilize further if he can stop losing the ball.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
The team continues to use CJ Ham on a higher than expected percentage of snaps. Together with Alexander Mattison seeing an expanded role, partly based on game script, and Cook’s snap percentage is lower than ideal. I don’t think this is a threat to his overall production, however we could expect his ceiling to be somewhat more capped in the wrong game script, compared to other running backs with a workload as large as his. Outside of snap share, his volume looks positively “Bell Cow” like. This shouldn’t affect his dynasty value.
Target Hogs
Over the course of the season, we have seen the number of players with huge 30% target shares normalize to average. However, that does not mean that the target hogs have stopped… well… hogging. It just means the data set was too small to reflect their likely usage moving forward. Here are the top 12 players in target share as they stand right now:
Only two players have a season-long target share over 30%. But six to nine players at the wide receiver position are earning that level of targets on a week-to-week basis.
Michael Thomas, WR NO
Even with the loss of Drew Brees, Thomas remains the most targeted player compared to the rest of the league. He’s an every-week start even if his UDud does suggest he could see a slip in production in the next few weeks.
Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ
With the recent bump in targets for Robby Anderson and Ryan Griffin, I think we will see his season-long target share fall below 30% over the next few weeks.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
Despite last week’s disappointment, I think Cooper Kupp is still one of the most likely players at the position to produce WR1 numbers every week.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
His stability score is inflated by owning 44% of targets in week one. Since then, he has averaged 25% of his team’s targets and a stability score below (which means it is better) that of Odell Beckham. With Beckham finally putting production to targets in week six, Hopkins now becomes my favorite bounce-back candidate going into week seven.
The Most Stable
Here are the most stable players in usage at the running back position.
Phillip Lindsay, RB DEN and Royce Freeman, RB DEN
The saga lives on into week seven. Both are very “safe” flex plays for their usage floor.
Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
He continues to impress me with the consistency of his role. His floor is low considering the ineffectiveness of the offense, however.
Frank Gore, RB BUF
Will Devin Singletary get more work when and if he is back healthy now? I’m not sure. But while he’s been out, Gore has continued to defy father time.
Matt Breida, RB SF
With a limited red-zone role and the return of Tevin Coleman, I think Matt Breida’s upside has been muted. But he’s likely an underrated player as well.
Below are the most consistent players in their share of opportunity in the receiving game.
The top tight ends are remarkably consistent in their roles right now.
Trey Burton, TE CHI
Consistency isn’t everything. Consistently getting nine percent of a team’s targets, isn’t great. However on a week-to-week basis since he’s been playing, Burton has been averaging 12 percent of the team’s targets. There’s an outside chance he could get a good week if his role in the red zone can improve – if you are looking for a desperation streamer.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
Bounce back coming.
That’s about all I have for this week. I hope you are all already on your way to the playoffs. But if not remember there is still time. There is also always something to play for I dynasty. It’s one of the things that make it so great.
Thanks for checking my article out this week.
Data from 4for4.com and pro-football-reference.com I’m using for this article is all tracked here.
See you next time.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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