DraftKings Bargains: Week Six
There are a lot of differences between DFS and dynasty. Not only are both formats completely different from each other, but there’s a massive dichotomy to roster building.
In dynasty, owners want to build their teams around talent by scouting a player’s ability to produce on the field. On the contrary, DFS grinders look at recent player usage and workload along with potential game scripts to predict a player’s impact. A player’s talent level matters but not as much as it does in dynasty because you are not married to that player for more than one game.
Data courtesy of OddSharks.com
As a guide, we use the Vegas over/unders as a tool to try and predict game scripts. Obviously, the higher the implied point total the more likely the game could turn into a shootout.
We have three games that surpass the 50-point threshold this week. The Texans-Chiefs game has the highest implied point total on the slate while the Titans-Broncos game is dead last in expect point total. We want to use this data to build player stacks for our lineups. The more offensive output in a game, the more players that will correlate with each other in fantasy scoring, maximizing opportunities to produce a successful lineup in deep GPP tournament contests.
QUARTERBACK
Gardner Minshew, JAX ($5,000)
It’s apparent that DraftKings isn’t buying into Minshew Mania. They have him underpriced, making him an easy addition to your roster. He will be playing at home against the Saints and Vegas has the game set with a 44.5 over/under. Both teams are capable of putting points on the scoreboard and there’s a good chance this game smashes the 44.5 point threshold.
Minshew is third in the league with 18 pass attempts of 20 yards or more in the last three weeks. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s getting plenty of time to throw the ball with an average of 2.87 seconds per pass attempt which is marked as the third-longest in the league. As we all know, he’s been highly effective this season, completing 66.7 percent of his passes while posting a 105.6 quarterback rating.
Not only is Minshew underpriced this week, but his WR1, DJ Chark, can also be rostered for a discount. He is listed at just $5,500, making the Chark-Minshew stack an easy addition to your roster. Chark is third in the league with 280 air yards in the last three weeks. He is also seeing a 22 percent target share during this time period.
Even if Minshew delivers QB2 level results, his cheap price tag will allow you to spend more at other positions. As long as he doesn’t bottom out, he will provide value to your team.
Your exposure should be limited, considering there are other matchups on the slate that could provide a higher point total at the quarterback position. His price tag is enticing but he might see a lower ownership rate than expected due to there being multiple games with implied point totals of 50 points or more.
Other options: Dak Prescott $6,200, Matt Ryan $6,400, Kyler Murray $6,500
RUNNING BACK
Chase Edmonds, ARI ($4,600)
David Johnson is currently dealing with a back injury. He has missed practice all week and there’s a chance that the injury could affect his playing status for week six. Even if he does play, Edmonds could see a much larger role. This is very encouraging because Murray likes to feature the running back in the passing game.
The Cardinals rank second in the league with 24.01 seconds per play, and they also rank second in the league with 26.95 seconds per play in a neutral game script. Their offensive volume fuels fantasy production for multiple players on the team. As we all know, more plays ran equals more opportunities for fantasy points to be scored.
Edmonds is going to be very chalky if Johnson sits out. However, his $4,600 salary will allow you to bolster your roster at other positions while playing a running back who could see a considerable volume in snaps and touches. He will be a contrarian option if Johnson plays because his workload will be unpredictable.
We know he will receive more opportunities, we just don’t know how much. In a plus matchup against the Falcons, it’s hard to not be interested in Edmonds.
Your ownership exposure will depend on Johnson’s health. If Johnson is inactive, then, of course, you will want to load up on Edmonds. However, you will still want to sprinkle Edmonds into some of your lineups if Johnson plays because he should see an increased workload against a weak Falcons defense who has allowed 19 receptions to running backs this season and ranks 27th in the league with a 10.4 percent DVOA.
Other options: Ito Smith $4,300, Carlos Hyde $4,400, Adrian Peterson $4,500
WIDE RECEIVER
Robert Woods, LAR ($5,600)
Woods saw 293 air yards while obtaining a 21-percent target share this week. After being placed in concussion protocol this week, Brandin Cooks is expected to play. However, Woods should see a small boost in targets since he was more involved in this week’s offensive game plan throughout the week.
The Rams will be playing the 49ers at home and Vegas has the over/under slated for this game at 50.5 points. There should be plenty of opportunities for Woods to produce this week.
Woods is a key contributor to the Rams’ offense. If this game turns into a high scoring affair, he will definitely push for double-digit targets.
Considering his workload combined with the favorable matchup, Woods is severely underpriced. He has seen 60 or more air yards in every game but one, and he should see a large market share of the Rams’ downfield targets in this game. So far on the season, he has seen 53.85 of the team’s deep targets of 20 yards or more. If Cooks is limited or even inactive for this game, that share should increase.
He’s an easy play in DFS. His price is low and he packs plenty of upside. You can stack him with Jared Goff or use him as a stand-alone piece in your lineup. Nonetheless, he’s a player that you are going to want to build lineups around this weekend.
Other options: DeVante Parker $4,200, Courtland Sutton $5,000, Calvin Ridley $5,700
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce, KC ($7,000)
Like every week, Kelce is the highest priced tight end on DraftKings. That doesn’t sound like a bargain, but he provides an advantage to your lineup considering he leads all tight ends with 313 air yards in the last three weeks. He also leads Kansas City with 43 targets on the season.
The Chiefs will be at home against the Texans. Vegas has the over/under set at 55 points. This game is expected to be very high scoring, boding well for Kelce the sheer offensive volume from this matchup should aid his fantasy production.
Sammy Watkins’ status for this game is up in the air and there’s a chance we won’t see Tyreek Hill’s return from his collar bone injury this week. If both players are inactive, Kelce should feast against a Texans team allowing 15.9 fantasy points per game to the tight end position.
Kelce takes away the variance at the tight end spot. He is about the only tight end in the league where you don’t have to worry about his usage from a week to week basis. He is considered a bargain because of his positional stability combined with his advantageous matchup. Kelce screams chalk this week, but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s playing in one of the best matchups he will see all season.
Other options: Gerald Everett $3,600, Mark Andrews $4,800, Austin Hooper $5,000
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