Freshman Quarterbacks: Ballers and Fallers

The fantasy game, especially the dynasty format, is constantly in a state of, not only flux, but evolution as well. In the past decade we’ve seen PPR overtake standard leagues in terms of popularity, and we’ve seen various draft types and league formats capture the imaginations of many leagues, including auction drafts, IDP league, devy leagues and salary cap leagues.

We’ve also seen the flex position become a staple of countless leagues as owners constantly look for ways to squeeze more value into their lineups. None of these ideas were born over the past decade. Each of them have their roots well beyond that time frame, but the past decade has seen their popularity increase substantially.

It’s the intersection of many of these formats that truly presents the largest areas for value to be capitalized upon and which yield exciting leagues for owners to explore and enjoy. One of these intersections is the very subject of this article and is on the leading edge of where, I believe, the fantasy game is headed. First though, let’s establish some context.

Just as flex positions have become increasingly popular, many owners have come to understand that the quarterback position lacks the kind of statistical variation that makes for any kind of serious advantage between owning and starting an elite quarterback or a second-tier option. As such, the value of the quarterback position has dropped to historic lows within the fantasy game. Some leagues have taken the idea of the flex position into a different realm with the addition of a “superflex” roster spot.

Superflex leagues allow an owner to start a quarterback in a flex spot, creating additional demand for the position. Other leagues have opted to mandate that each team start two quarterbacks, called 2QB leagues, in an effort to create that additional demand.

These leagues, specifically superflex leagues, have increased significantly in popularity over the past few years. MyFantasyLeague has seen a 735 percent increase over the past five years in leagues with the word “superflex” in the league name, exemplifying the explosive growth of the format.

This growth signifies, and requires, a shift in how fantasy player value current and future NFL quarterbacks. The important part of that statement is the word “future” as that is where another format intersects the subjects of this article.

With the increased need to identify elite quarterbacks in superflex leagues, many owners have decided to dip their toe in the devy format. In devy leagues, owners can draft college – or in some instances younger – players. Depending on the league set up, those players will either be tagged as belonging to the team that drafted him or can accumulate points based on their performance.

So why is this important?

The simple fact of the matter is that if you aren’t already in a superflex league, you will likely be asked to join one in the coming years, or one or more of your leagues will seek to make the transition to the format. Therefore, in the coming age when quarterback is once again king, let’s take a look at this year’s freshman quarterbacks who could, with a little luck and a lot of skill, be one of the next rookie prospects your league will soon be talking about.

Through the first two games of the college season, three freshman quarterbacks have either set themselves apart through the expectations heaped upon them, or through their performances on the field. Those three quarterbacks are:

• Bo Nix – Auburn
• Jayden Daniels – Arizona State
• Hank Bachmeier – Boise State

Bo Nix, Auburn

Selected as the starting quarterback for Auburn after a lengthy battle with Joey Gatewood throughout the summer, Nix was a five-star quarterback out of high school and was Rivals top-rated pro-style quarterback. He has risen to the tenth-highest quarterback in DLF’s Devy Rankings as of the writing of this article.

That said, thus far, he hasn’t exactly lived up to those lofty expectations. To be fair, as I said earlier, the 2019 NCAA season is only two games old. Over those two games Nix faced 11th ranked Oregon and Tulane, both games Auburn won. He only managed, however, to accumulate 384 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and 58 rushing yards. He also threw two interceptions, bringing his passing efficiency rating to 103.2, the lowest of the freshman signal callers featured in this piece.

Nix’ schedule gets tougher from here with five top-25 opponents remaining. His situation is a true baptism by fire, and his value will slowly shrink unless he can step up his development in rapid fashion against some hefty competition.

Jayden Daniels, Arizona State

One of my favorite freshman quarterbacks in this recruiting class is Rivals’ second-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2019 class. A four-star prospect, Daniels opted to sign with Arizona State in December of 2018 after some rumors that he was considering UCLA.

Like Nix, he’s led his team to two straight wins (versus Kent State and Sacramento State). He posted his first 300+ yard passing game against the Hornets with 304 yards. So far this season, he has accumulated 588 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 38 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. He has yet to throw an interception and his passing efficiency rating currently sits at 179.0.

Additionally, like Nix, Daniels has several tougher opponents ahead, including five top-25 ranked opponents with 18th-ranked Michigan State next up. Daniels could see his current rank of 17th in the DLF Devy Rankings steadily climb if he is able maintain the kind of statistics he has posted to date.

Hank Bachmeier, Boise State

Exploding onto the national college football stage after winning the starting job at Boise State over third year player Chase Cord, Bachmeier was Rivals’ sixth-ranked pro-style quarterback as a four star recruit. He has yet to break into DLF’s Devy Rankings, but I have it on good authority that he could see some traction there in the coming weeks if he is able to maintain his white-hot performance.

He’s faced Florida State and Marshall so far this season, accumulating 689 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 13 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Over the span of those two games he’s thrown two interceptions, which puts his passing efficiency rating at 132.3. He’s been one of the biggest surprises through this early season. Those who drafted him with a late devy pick have already been handsomely rewarded with a massive bump in value.

He’s led Boise State to a top-25 ranking (currently ranked 22nd), and could take them to an undefeated season with no opponents on the schedule that are currently ranked. If he can achieve that goal, then look for his value to erupt.

Other Notables

Kedon Slovis, USC

Accruing his first college start in week two against 25th-ranked Stanford, after relieving JT Daniels who suffered a significant knee injury in week one, Slovis has already thrown for 434 yards with three passing touchdowns and an interception. His passing efficiency rating of 191.1 is the ninth-highest in the NCAA through two games. USC must face four more top-25 teams this season, so Slovis will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself

Ryan Hilinski, South Carolina

Here is another rookie thrust into a starting role after an early injury to his team’s starter. After Jake Bentley was diagnosed with a foot injury, Hilinski got the start against Charleston Southern. Rivals’ second-ranked pro-style quarterback this offseason and a four-star prospect, Hilinski ran up 282 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown with only one interception. He was extremely efficient with a 174.3 passing efficiency rating as well.

Things get super real next week as he will square off against second-ranked Alabama and still has ranked opponents Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M and Clemson. In recent memory, there are few tougher schedules faced by a freshman quarterback. If he can muster a winning season through that murderers row of opponents, the Gamecocks may just be onto something.

There you have it! Keep an eye on these young men as one or more of them could end up on your NFL dynasty team in the coming years, especially if that league is currently, or will be in the near future, a superflex league.

If you’re already in a devy league, it’s likely you’ve heard of at least one or more of these players and it’s also likely at least a couple of these prospects are already rostered. If any aren’t, you may want to make a move to add whomever you can, provided waivers are allowed for devy players. No matter the cause, best of luck to you and to these talented young men.