Devy Roundtable: Class of 2020 Disappointments
The DLF Devy crew recently sat down to discuss a range of topics.
In the second installment of a roundtable series, each member of the team offers up one player from the 2020 NFL Draft class they expect to disappoint this season. In case you missed yesterday’s article, they picked out one player they expect to pleasantly surprise.
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- Frank Gruber (@threedownhack)
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JOSEPH – AJ Dillon, RB Boston College
Dillon is a player who received considerable buzz after his freshman campaign, in which he rushed 300 times for 1589 yards and 14 touchdowns. That same season, though, shows us the main red flag in his profile — his lack of receiving ability.
Dillon caught a total of zero passes in his entire freshman season, which is alarming. He caught eight passes in 2018, but does not show any sort of natural ability to do so and has nearly no upside as a third-down option. Because of this, Dillon’s upside in the league is capped as the NFL shifts towards smaller, more elusive backs that can excel through the air.
Dillon will likely find a role as a goal-line weapon in the NFL if he can stay healthy – this was a problem for him in 2018 – but I really don’t see the path for him to be an elite (or even great) dynasty asset. The 2020 running back class is top-heavy, but even beyond the elite players, there are role-players who fit team committee niches better than Dillon does.
At best, he’s probably an early-down bruiser and goal-line back, similar to Jordan Howard’s role with the Bears. After two years, Howard’s dynasty value has evaporated, serving as a cautionary tale for how one of Dillon’s better-case scenarios could potentially play out.
KYLE – Najee Harris, RB Alabama
Harris was an elite recruit who was stuck in a crowded backfield with Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Bo Scarbrough the past two years. It appears he will finally get his chance to start this year as all three have moved onto the NFL. However, I am pessimistic about how Najee will perform when he gets the extra touches.
He is a powerful runner with decent athleticism but he is not someone who is going to destroy the combine like Travis Etienne or Jonathan Taylor likely will. He also doesn’t have the versatility of players like D’Andre Swift, Eno Benjamin, or Chuba Hubbard. With both the NFL and college football gravitating towards getting running backs out in space, I’m not sure Harris has as much upside as others being selected near him in devy drafts.
RAY – Trey Sermon, RB Oklahoma
Kennedy Brooks, T.J. Pledger, and Rhamondre Stevenson – are why expectations for Oklahoma’s Trey Sermon should be tempered.
Brooks led the Sooners in rushing yards in 2018 with 1,056 and 12 touchdowns, averaging 8.9 yards per carry, while receiving 45 fewer attempts than Sermon. Pledger is a former high four-star recruit who saw some action last year, and may have more natural talent than Brooks and Sermon. OU also brought in the number-one-rated junior college running back this spring, the 6’0” 235-pound hammer, Rhamondre Stevenson who is extremely talented in his own right.
This is not meant to knock Sermon the player, but any expectations you have for him based on last season should be adjusted as all four of these runners are way too talented to keep buried on the bench.
ROB – Collin Johnson, WR Texas
One of college football’s more heralded senior receivers, Johnson has made big plays in Austin yet I am reticent to forecast big things at the next level. Johnson can make contested catches with the best of him, but he often does so with defenders draped all over him, forcing him to use his size and strong hands to win. While an admirable trait, I fear it does not mesh well with the direction of the NFL and its rhythm and timing passing games.
A prospect with what I consider similar if superior skills – Hakeem Butler – slipped to the fourth round, and while we’re not privy to the background/medicals which may have caused Butler’s slide, I have a feeling Johnson could see a similar tumble to day three.
FRANK – Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
Oregon QB Justin Herbert possesses the requisite size for the position (though after the 2019 NFL Draft, size may not be the requirement it once was) and is projected to be a first-round NFL selection. The Ducks should have a successful 2019 and an explosive offense. However, Herbert has more work to do to justify his projection as a first-round superflex selection.
I recently examined QBs selected in the top half of the NFL Draft over the last ten years and found a correlation between efficiency (as measured by Adjusted Yards per Attempt) and dynasty success. Herbert’s collegiate efficiency to date puts him in the 36th percentile of this group and well below fellow #Devy darlings Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, and recent draftees Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins.
6/ Now let’s look ahead with AY/A.
This includes favorites for #NFLDraft2020 plus Trevor Lawrence for ‘21.
Tua Tagovailoa’s efficiency has been truly historic.
Jake Fromm looks surprisingly good.
Justin Herbert getting there.
As expected, Lawrence should finish as elite. pic.twitter.com/kbaHtKI6ZB
— Frank Gruber (@threedownhack) May 13, 2019
I will be looking for improved efficiency from Herbert in 2019 but am braced for disappointment.
AUSTIN – Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
We’ve all seen the highlight grabs while dominating defensive backs, but there is an ugly truth to Edwards’ profile. In three years at South Carolina, he has yet to eclipse a 30% College Dominator. In fact, he sits at just 25.3% heading into 2019. He has the elite Breakout Age, but has yet to produce that absolutely dominant season that almost all elite NFL WRs produce in college.
There is also the fact that he will be coming out as a senior which again, is not common among the NFL’s greatest. I will not be surprised if Shi Smith actually outproduces Edwards in 2018. There is also the fact that it’s unlikely that Edwards is drafted any higher than round three. Overall, his profile is concerning and is not one that I’m investing in for devy.
DWIGHT – JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State
Junior back Dobbins is a good runner. He does a lot of things well. His short-area quickness is very good, he has acceleration and his contact balance is good as well. Dobbins can catch out of the backfield but hasn’t been asked to run many routes.
Overall, he is a good college running back but hasn’t shown enough to separate himself from a talented group of 2020 draft-eligible backs. He does many things well but I don’t see many elite traits. Dobbins will be a decent running back in the NFL but I don’t see him being the three-down workhorse who can carry a team and I worry he will be sharing the backfield this year with other talented Buckeye backs.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
