2019 IDP Projections: New Orleans Saints
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Saints had a magical 2018 and could easily have won another title for Drew Brees and Sean Payton before it fell apart on them.
Defensively it wasn’t a great year, but they were good enough to not prevent the team from being one of the best in the NFL. They’ve invested heavily in defensive personnel in recent years (including a spectacular 2018 draft) so have they got enough class to be contenders again?
Defensive tackle
Sheldon Rankins is the top interior pass rusher here but after he badly injured his Achilles tendon in the playoffs, he’s looking at an uphill battle to play high snaps in 2019. At the time of writing, he’s on the PUP list and has yet to do anything at camp.
Fortunately, the team has managed to assemble a good cast at the position. David Onyemata is an extremely talented player and could shine with more playing time. Onyemata is a great story. He’s a Nigerian who had never seen (American) football played until he moved to Canada in 2011. This column’s writer has been watching football since 1997 and still sometimes gets treated as a newbie and Onyemata has gone from zero clue to being a credible IDP in just eight years.
Malcom Brown is also on the team but is probably just depth at this stage. He’s not as good a pass rusher as Rankins or Onyemata and not a great fit at nose – certainly not as good as Sylvester Williams who is a nose to the bone. Or maybe cartilage.
Defensive end
Cameron Jordan remains one of the finest edge players in the NFL. He’s not recognized as such and maybe that’s because the Saints are an offense-first team, but he proves it season after season on the field. Expect another elite season of production. He’s averaged over ten sacks a season from 2012 onwards.
Marcus Davenport is the second end and should be a solid starter after developing in his rookie season. He was not the most impressive as a rookie, but he was a raw prospect and just 21 years old. We should expect an improvement but even so, it’s a big jump from where he is. As a comparison, Davenport managed 28 pressures in 2018 – the same as Solomon Thomas who has been panned as a huge bust. Thomas played more but Frankie Luvu and Deatrich Wise played about the same amount and produced similarly to Davenport. Improvement is needed.
Linebacker
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen only tends to produce one IDP-relevant linebacker.
Demario Davis was by far the most productive option last year. He consistently played in the middle and although he’s a fairly poor player in coverage, he’s mostly reliable and effective.
A.J. Klein played second-most but is a much less efficient player – mainly due to the fact he’s the closest thing to a Sam LB the Saints use and therefore spends more time tangling with blocks. In real terms, he plays Sam about 10% more than Davis – but that means Klein has a tackle efficiency of around 9% while Davis was up closer to 11% in 2018 (his first season as a Saint). Add in the fact that Davis played about 300 more snaps and this is very significant.
The number three LB was Alex Anzalone. He’s a useful player but he just seems to be a fragile human being. His college career was a litany of damage and he’s managed just 645 snaps in his first two seasons as a pro. It’ll be good news if he can step up and play more but it just doesn’t seem likely. His time was limited by injury as a rookie in 2017 (naturally) but in 2018, it seemed like the team just wanted to keep him fresh with limited snaps.
Cornerback
Marshon Lattimore is a hot name and a very talented young player. But he might not be the best IDP choice. His 2018 was distinctly underwhelming and there’s no real reason to expect drastically better in 2019. He’s not a bad choice at all but also not a great one.
Eli Apple should be the second outside starter, but it would also be no surprise to see some of the other options start games too. Apple is a very average player and should not be relied on to start all year long.
Safety
Vonn Bell is the closest thing to a strong safety on the roster, but he plays in the box a relatively low amount for someone with that designation. He was very effective on somewhat limited snaps (around 750) in 2018 but he needs to play more as well as stay efficient to be really valuable. As it is, he’s one of those players who are useful but not reliably difference-making safeties.
Marcus Williams is the starting free safety on the team. He’s a relatively well-known player but he’s not a very good IDP option.
Stud – Cam Jordan, DE
He’s so good. If anything, the numbers here are conservative. Expect him to be pone of the more reliable weekly DE starts in your league again.
Disappointment – Marcus Davenport, DE
This is not saying “Marcus Davenport is a bad player”, simply that expectations are still pretty high for him (for those who drafted him early a year ago at least) and he might struggle to live up to them. He’s definitely going to have some success, but he might not be the top-24 option people would like.
Darkhorse – Vonn Bell, S
If he can play more consistently this year, Bell has the potential to finish as a top-12 safety. Of course, he could easily finish outside the top 24 too. It’s just the nature of the position. But he’s on plenty of my rosters.
Summary
The Saints are an underrated defense. They’ve got top talent rushing off the edge, they’re strong at tackle and have a promising young secondary. The scheme is somewhat uninspiring but this is a team worth investing in.
Thanks for reading.
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